NYSE$ADT

ADT Inc. · Q4 2022 earnings

Q4 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

ADT reported strong Q4 2022 results with revenue growth and record customer retention.

ADT Inc. reported a 19% increase in total revenue to $1.6 billion for Q4 2022. The company achieved record high customer retention and an end-of-period recurring monthly revenue (RMR) of $374 million, up 4%. GAAP net income was $151 million, or $0.16 per diluted share.

  • Total revenue increased by 19% to $1.6 billion.
  • End-of-period recurring monthly revenue (RMR) reached $374 million, a 4% increase.
  • Gross customer revenue attrition hit a record low of 12.5%.
  • GAAP net income was $151 million, or $0.16 per diluted share.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.65B

Previous: $1.38B+19.1%
EPS (adj)

$0.10

Previous: -$0.03+433.3%
Free Cash Flow

$243M

Previous: $114M+113.2%
Net Income

$151M

Previous: -$58M+360.3%
Operating Income

$206M

Previous: $10M+1960.0%
Cash & Equivalents

$257M

Previous: $24M+970.8%
Total Assets

$17.9B

Previous: $16.9B+5.8%

Revenue & EPS history

ADT · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.65B

Q4 2022+19.1%vs Q4 2021
Beat estimate in 6 of 15 quarters(40%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

The Company is providing the following financial guidance for 2023, with all metrics representing an improvement over 2022 performance:

Tailwinds

  • Total Revenue $6,600 - $6,850 million
  • Adjusted EBITDA $2,525 - $2,625 million
  • Adjusted EPS $0.30 - $0.40
  • Adjusted Free Cash Flow (including interest rate swaps) $600 - $700 million
  • Adjusted Free Cash Flow $525 - $625 million

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2022

Historical avgQ4 2022

-2.2%

Avg return

Earnings day

-3.8%

Avg return

5 days after

-1.7%

Avg return

30 days after

46%

17 / 37 earnings

Positive

+13.9%

Q3 2024

Best reaction

-25.8%

Q4 2020

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+5.0%-2.2%-6.6%
Q4 2025+2.0%-18.3%-18.3%
Q3 2025-7.9%-5.9%-7.7%
Q1 2025-2.0%+0.9%+3.9%
Q4 2024+7.8%+0.8%+7.6%
Q3 2024+13.9%+6.2%+9.0%
Q2 2024-10.9%-9.1%-6.3%
Q1 2024+0.8%+1.9%+13.2%
Q4 2023+11.2%+12.3%+2.9%
Q3 2023+9.9%+9.1%+10.8%
Q2 2023+5.2%+6.3%-5.5%
Q1 2023-20.7%-13.5%-15.2%
Q4 2022-3.3%-2.4%-8.9%
Q3 2022+2.9%+5.6%+18.2%
Q2 2022+9.7%+7.4%-1.4%
Q1 2022-3.4%-7.0%+2.9%
Q4 2021+7.8%+3.8%+3.8%
Q3 2021-0.6%+1.1%-5.1%
Q2 2021-13.5%-14.0%-17.9%
Q1 2021+3.1%+2.7%+19.6%
Q4 2020-25.8%-30.0%-19.9%
Q3 2020+4.3%+5.9%+22.3%
Q2 2020-5.9%-6.6%-19.4%
Q1 2020+2.2%+4.9%+51.4%
Q4 2019-12.6%-22.6%-38.4%
Q3 2019+8.0%+8.5%+9.1%
Q2 2019-7.1%-11.9%-5.3%
Q1 2019-11.6%-8.9%-13.2%
Q4 2016-11.0%-12.3%-9.6%
Q4 2018-11.0%-12.3%-9.6%
Q3 2017+5.8%+5.8%+0.4%
Q3 2018+10.7%+1.8%+1.8%
Q2 2017-6.1%-6.1%-7.2%
Q2 2018-7.4%+0.0%-3.8%
Q1 2018-7.6%-14.8%-4.1%
Q1 2017-7.6%-14.8%-4.1%
Q4 2017-14.5%-12.2%-11.9%
Q3 2016
Q2 2016
Q1 2016
Q4 2015
Q3 2015
Q2 2015
Q1 2015
Q4 2014
Q3 2014
Q2 2014
Q1 2014
Q4 2013
Q3 2013
Q2 2013
Q1 2013
Q4 2012

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