NYSE$ADT

ADT Inc. · Q4 2020 earnings

Q4 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

ADT reported strong financial and operating results, maintained record low revenue payback, and grew RMR additions by double digits.

ADT Inc. reported Q4 2020 results with a total revenue of $1,315 million compared to $1,298 million in the prior year. The company's net loss was $112 million, compared to $72 million in the prior year. ADT maintained its record low revenue payback, while growing RMR additions by double digits and increasing net subscribers.

  • Total revenue of $1,315 million, compared to $1,298 million.
  • Net loss of $112 million, compared to $72 million.
  • U.S. Recurring Monthly Revenue additions up 15% in Q4.
  • Grew net subscribers for both Q4 and full year.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.32B

Previous: $1.3B+1.3%
EPS (adj)

-$0.12

Previous: -$0.03-300.0%
Net Income

-$112M

Previous: -$72M-55.6%
Operating Income

$17M

Previous: $64M-73.4%

Revenue & EPS history

ADT · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.32B

Q4 2020+1.3%vs Q4 2019
Beat estimate in 14 of 15 quarters(93%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

ADT · $1.29B total across 2 segments · Q2 2025

  • Monitoring and Related Services
    $1.09B—
  • Security Installation, Product and Other
    $197M—

Forward guidance

ADT expects demand catalysts to continue in 2021 and is targeting full year Recurring Monthly Revenue additions to grow in the mid-teens. The Company is providing the following financial guidance for 2021: Total Revenue $5,050 - $5,250 million, Adjusted EBITDA $2,100 - $2,200 million, Adjusted Free Cash Flow $450 - $550 million.

Tailwinds

  • Targeting full year Recurring Monthly Revenue additions to grow in the mid-teens.
  • Total Revenue $5,050 - $5,250 million
  • Adjusted EBITDA $2,100 - $2,200 million
  • Adjusted Free Cash Flow $450 - $550 million
  • Growth momentum in the second half of 2020

Headwinds

  • Increased spending on subscriber acquisition costs
  • Increased spending on other technology investments
  • Guidance excludes 3G and Code-Division Multiple Access (“CDMA”) radio conversion costs.
  • Residential equipment ownership model transition includes estimated non-cash reductions in reported revenue ($350 million to $400 million)
  • Residential equipment ownership model transition includes estimated non-cash reductions in Adjusted EBITDA ($80 million to $100 million).

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2020

Historical avgQ4 2020

-2.2%

Avg return

Earnings day

-3.8%

Avg return

5 days after

-1.7%

Avg return

30 days after

46%

17 / 37 earnings

Positive

+13.9%

Q3 2024

Best reaction

-25.8%

Q4 2020

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q2 2025———
Q1 2026+5.0%-2.2%-6.6%
Q4 2025+2.0%-18.3%-18.3%
Q3 2025-7.9%-5.9%-7.7%
Q1 2025-2.0%+0.9%+3.9%
Q4 2024+7.8%+0.8%+7.6%
Q3 2024+13.9%+6.2%+9.0%
Q2 2024-10.9%-9.1%-6.3%
Q1 2024+0.8%+1.9%+13.2%
Q4 2023+11.2%+12.3%+2.9%
Q3 2023+9.9%+9.1%+10.8%
Q2 2023+5.2%+6.3%-5.5%
Q1 2023-20.7%-13.5%-15.2%
Q4 2022-3.3%-2.4%-8.9%
Q3 2022+2.9%+5.6%+18.2%
Q2 2022+9.7%+7.4%-1.4%
Q1 2022-3.4%-7.0%+2.9%
Q4 2021+7.8%+3.8%+3.8%
Q3 2021-0.6%+1.1%-5.1%
Q2 2021-13.5%-14.0%-17.9%
Q1 2021+3.1%+2.7%+19.6%
Q4 2020-25.8%-30.0%-19.9%
Q3 2020+4.3%+5.9%+22.3%
Q2 2020-5.9%-6.6%-19.4%
Q1 2020+2.2%+4.9%+51.4%
Q4 2019-12.6%-22.6%-38.4%
Q3 2019+8.0%+8.5%+9.1%
Q2 2019-7.1%-11.9%-5.3%
Q1 2019-11.6%-8.9%-13.2%
Q4 2016-11.0%-12.3%-9.6%
Q4 2018-11.0%-12.3%-9.6%
Q3 2017+5.8%+5.8%+0.4%
Q3 2018+10.7%+1.8%+1.8%
Q2 2017-6.1%-6.1%-7.2%
Q2 2018-7.4%+0.0%-3.8%
Q1 2018-7.6%-14.8%-4.1%
Q1 2017-7.6%-14.8%-4.1%
Q4 2017-14.5%-12.2%-11.9%
Q3 2016———
Q2 2016———
Q1 2016———
Q4 2015———
Q3 2015———
Q2 2015———
Q1 2015———
Q4 2014———
Q3 2014———
Q2 2014———
Q1 2014———
Q4 2013———
Q3 2013———
Q2 2013———
Q1 2013———
Q4 2012———

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