NYSE$ADT

ADT Inc. · Q2 2023 earnings

Q2 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported record high recurring monthly revenue balance and maintained record high customer retention. Improved capital efficiency with record revenue payback of 1.9 years. Achieved positive net income with strong Adjusted EBITDA and operating cash flows. Announced agreement to divest commercial business for $1.6 billion unlocking significant shareholder value; net proceeds to be used for debt reduction.

ADT's second quarter results showed resilience with a record high recurring monthly revenue balance and customer retention. The company reported a total revenue of $1.6 billion and a GAAP net income of $92 million. They also announced an agreement to divest their commercial business for $1.6 billion.

  • Total revenue of $1.6 billion with end-of-period recurring monthly revenue (RMR) up 4% or $382 million.
  • High customer retention with gross revenue attrition maintaining record low of 12.5%.
  • Record revenue payback of 1.9 years.
  • GAAP net income of $92 million, or $0.10 per diluted share.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.59B

Previous: $1.6B-0.5%
EPS (adj)

$0.16

Previous: $0.06+166.7%
Capital Expenditures

-$89.3M

Previous: -$87.6M-2.0%
Free Cash Flow

$2.86M

Previous: $3.9M-26.5%
Net Income

$92.2M

Previous: $91.5M+0.8%
Operating Income

$123M

Previous: $211M-41.8%
Cash & Equivalents

$146M

Previous: $43.6M+235.8%
Total Assets

$17.3B

Previous: $17.3B+0.1%

Revenue & EPS history

ADT · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.59B

Q2 2023-0.5%vs Q2 2022
Beat estimate in 6 of 15 quarters(40%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

The Company is revising its financial guidance for 2023. Total revenue is now projected to be lower than prior guidance due to the Solar outlook from low installation volume and efficiency headwinds, partially offset by CSB and Commercial performance. The Company is maintaining previously issued guidance on Adjusted EBITDA, Adjusted EPS, Adjusted Free Cash Flow (including interest rate swaps), and Adjusted Free Cash Flow as we expect M&S revenue and improved operating margins within CSB and Commercial to largely offset the profitability and cash flow impact of Solar underperformance.

Tailwinds

  • Adjusted EBITDA: $2,525 - $2,625 million
  • Adjusted EPS: $0.30 - $0.40
  • Adjusted Free Cash Flow (including interest rate swaps): $600 - $700 million
  • Adjusted Free Cash Flow: $525 - $625 million

Headwinds

  • Total Revenue: $6,300 - $6,500 million (previous $6,600 - $6,850 million)
  • Solar outlook from low installation volume
  • Solar efficiency headwinds
  • Commercial business is expected to be reported as discontinued operations beginning in the third quarter of 2023
  • Full year Commercial results are included in guidance, pending the close of the transaction.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q2 2023

Historical avgQ2 2023

-2.2%

Avg return

Earnings day

-3.8%

Avg return

5 days after

-1.7%

Avg return

30 days after

46%

17 / 37 earnings

Positive

+13.9%

Q3 2024

Best reaction

-25.8%

Q4 2020

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+5.0%-2.2%-6.6%
Q4 2025+2.0%-18.3%-18.3%
Q3 2025-7.9%-5.9%-7.7%
Q1 2025-2.0%+0.9%+3.9%
Q4 2024+7.8%+0.8%+7.6%
Q3 2024+13.9%+6.2%+9.0%
Q2 2024-10.9%-9.1%-6.3%
Q1 2024+0.8%+1.9%+13.2%
Q4 2023+11.2%+12.3%+2.9%
Q3 2023+9.9%+9.1%+10.8%
Q2 2023+5.2%+6.3%-5.5%
Q1 2023-20.7%-13.5%-15.2%
Q4 2022-3.3%-2.4%-8.9%
Q3 2022+2.9%+5.6%+18.2%
Q2 2022+9.7%+7.4%-1.4%
Q1 2022-3.4%-7.0%+2.9%
Q4 2021+7.8%+3.8%+3.8%
Q3 2021-0.6%+1.1%-5.1%
Q2 2021-13.5%-14.0%-17.9%
Q1 2021+3.1%+2.7%+19.6%
Q4 2020-25.8%-30.0%-19.9%
Q3 2020+4.3%+5.9%+22.3%
Q2 2020-5.9%-6.6%-19.4%
Q1 2020+2.2%+4.9%+51.4%
Q4 2019-12.6%-22.6%-38.4%
Q3 2019+8.0%+8.5%+9.1%
Q2 2019-7.1%-11.9%-5.3%
Q1 2019-11.6%-8.9%-13.2%
Q4 2016-11.0%-12.3%-9.6%
Q4 2018-11.0%-12.3%-9.6%
Q3 2017+5.8%+5.8%+0.4%
Q3 2018+10.7%+1.8%+1.8%
Q2 2017-6.1%-6.1%-7.2%
Q2 2018-7.4%+0.0%-3.8%
Q1 2018-7.6%-14.8%-4.1%
Q1 2017-7.6%-14.8%-4.1%
Q4 2017-14.5%-12.2%-11.9%
Q3 2016
Q2 2016
Q1 2016
Q4 2015
Q3 2015
Q2 2015
Q1 2015
Q4 2014
Q3 2014
Q2 2014
Q1 2014
Q4 2013
Q3 2013
Q2 2013
Q1 2013
Q4 2012

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