NYSE$ADT

ADT Inc. · Q3 2020 earnings

Q3 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

ADT reported strong financial and operating results, improving revenue payback and customer retention to record levels, growing RMR additions and increasing subscribers.

ADT Inc. reported third-quarter 2020 results, highlighting record customer retention and revenue payback, growth in U.S. RMR additions and net subscribers, and an accelerating launch of a co-branded offering with Google into 2021.

  • Total revenue was $1,299 million, compared to $1,301 million.
  • Net loss was $113 million, compared to $182 million.
  • Adjusted EBITDA was $564 million, compared to $624 million.
  • Trailing twelve-month gross customer revenue attrition of 12.9%, an improvement of 60 bps.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.3B

Previous: $1.3B-0.1%
EPS (adj)

-$0.08

Previous: -$0.02-300.0%
Capital Expenditures

-$112M

Previous: -$120M+6.5%
Free Cash Flow

-$225M

Previous: -$302M+25.3%
Net Income

-$113M

Previous: -$182M+37.7%
Operating Income

$62.9M

Previous: -$51.2M+222.7%
Cash & Equivalents

$489M

Previous: $156M+214.2%
Total Assets

$16.4B

Previous: $16.9B-3.4%

Revenue & EPS history

ADT · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.3B

Q3 2020-0.1%vs Q3 2019
Beat estimate in 13 of 14 quarters(93%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

ADT · $1.29B total across 2 segments · Q2 2025

  • Monitoring and Related Services
    $1.09B—
  • Security Installation, Product and Other
    $197M—

Forward guidance

Based on the strength of the third quarter results, the Company is updating its financial guidance.

Tailwinds

  • Total Revenue $5,200 - $5,350 million
  • Adjusted EBITDA $2,150 - $2,225 million
  • Adjusted Free Cash Flow $650 - $725 million
  • Partnership with Google is off to a very strong start
  • Consumer financing program has been well received

Headwinds

  • There are many variables involved in 3G and CDMA radio conversion costs, including retention levels, system upgrade rates, revenue opportunities, cost-sharing opportunities, and possible technology solutions.
  • The Company continues to estimate the range of net costs for this replacement program at $200 million to $325 million
  • Lower volume of commercial transactions due to COVID-19
  • Impact from the Defenders acquisition
  • Sale of ADT Canada

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2020

Historical avgQ3 2020

-2.2%

Avg return

Earnings day

-3.8%

Avg return

5 days after

-1.7%

Avg return

30 days after

46%

17 / 37 earnings

Positive

+13.9%

Q3 2024

Best reaction

-25.8%

Q4 2020

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q2 2025———
Q1 2026+5.0%-2.2%-6.6%
Q4 2025+2.0%-18.3%-18.3%
Q3 2025-7.9%-5.9%-7.7%
Q1 2025-2.0%+0.9%+3.9%
Q4 2024+7.8%+0.8%+7.6%
Q3 2024+13.9%+6.2%+9.0%
Q2 2024-10.9%-9.1%-6.3%
Q1 2024+0.8%+1.9%+13.2%
Q4 2023+11.2%+12.3%+2.9%
Q3 2023+9.9%+9.1%+10.8%
Q2 2023+5.2%+6.3%-5.5%
Q1 2023-20.7%-13.5%-15.2%
Q4 2022-3.3%-2.4%-8.9%
Q3 2022+2.9%+5.6%+18.2%
Q2 2022+9.7%+7.4%-1.4%
Q1 2022-3.4%-7.0%+2.9%
Q4 2021+7.8%+3.8%+3.8%
Q3 2021-0.6%+1.1%-5.1%
Q2 2021-13.5%-14.0%-17.9%
Q1 2021+3.1%+2.7%+19.6%
Q4 2020-25.8%-30.0%-19.9%
Q3 2020+4.3%+5.9%+22.3%
Q2 2020-5.9%-6.6%-19.4%
Q1 2020+2.2%+4.9%+51.4%
Q4 2019-12.6%-22.6%-38.4%
Q3 2019+8.0%+8.5%+9.1%
Q2 2019-7.1%-11.9%-5.3%
Q1 2019-11.6%-8.9%-13.2%
Q4 2016-11.0%-12.3%-9.6%
Q4 2018-11.0%-12.3%-9.6%
Q3 2017+5.8%+5.8%+0.4%
Q3 2018+10.7%+1.8%+1.8%
Q2 2017-6.1%-6.1%-7.2%
Q2 2018-7.4%+0.0%-3.8%
Q1 2018-7.6%-14.8%-4.1%
Q1 2017-7.6%-14.8%-4.1%
Q4 2017-14.5%-12.2%-11.9%
Q3 2016———
Q2 2016———
Q1 2016———
Q4 2015———
Q3 2015———
Q2 2015———
Q1 2015———
Q4 2014———
Q3 2014———
Q2 2014———
Q1 2014———
Q4 2013———
Q3 2013———
Q2 2013———
Q1 2013———
Q4 2012———

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