NYSE$AAP

Advance Auto Parts Inc · Q2 2021 earnings

Q2 2021 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Advance Auto Parts' Q2 2021 performance was highlighted by a 5.9% increase in net sales, driven by a strong recovery in the professional business, and an adjusted diluted EPS increase of 15.3%.

Advance Auto Parts reported a 5.9% increase in net sales to $2.6 billion, with comparable store sales up by 5.8%. Adjusted diluted EPS increased by 15.3% to $3.40. The company returned $457.9 million to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends.

  • Net sales increased 5.9% to $2.6 billion.
  • Comparable store sales increased 5.8%, with a 13.3% increase on a two-year stack.
  • Diluted EPS was $2.74, flat compared to Q2 2020; adjusted diluted EPS increased 15.3% to $3.40.
  • The company returned $457.9 million to shareholders through share repurchases and quarterly cash dividends.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$2.65B

Previous: $2.5B+5.9%
EPS (adj)

$3.40

Previous: $2.92+16.4%
Comparable Store Sales

5.8%

Previous: 7.5%-22.7%
Capital Expenditures

-$130M

Previous: -$140M+7.5%
Free Cash Flow

$49.1M

Previous: $49.9M-1.5%
Net Income

$179M

Previous: $190M-5.9%
Operating Income

$245M

Previous: $263M-6.8%
Gross Profit

$1.19B

Previous: $1.1B+8.4%
Cash & Equivalents

$809M

Previous: $1.14B-29.1%
Total Assets

$11.8B

Previous: $11.9B-0.8%

Revenue & EPS history

Advance Auto Parts · Revenue · Quarterly

$2.65B

Q2 2021+5.9%vs Q2 2020
Beat estimate in 13 of 16 quarters(81%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

Advance Auto Parts updated its full-year 2021 financial guidance to reflect positive first-half results, while acknowledging potential volatility in the second half of the year.

Tailwinds

  • Net sales are projected to be between $10.6 billion and $10.8 billion.
  • Comparable store sales are expected to increase by 6.0% to 8.0%.
  • Adjusted operating income margin is anticipated to be between 9.2% and 9.4%.
  • Minimum free cash flow is projected to be $700 million.
  • Share repurchases are expected to be between $700 million and $900 million.

Headwinds

  • The guidance acknowledges the potential for volatility in the back half of the year.
  • The company is cognizant of potential impacts from the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • Guidance assumes an income tax rate between 24% and 26%.
  • Capital expenditures are projected to be between $300 million and $350 million.
  • New store openings are projected to be between 80 and 120.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q2 2021

Historical avgQ2 2021

-0.5%

Avg return

Earnings day

-1.9%

Avg return

5 days after

-0.9%

Avg return

30 days after

45%

29 / 65 earnings

Positive

+57.0%

Q1 2025

Best reaction

-39.4%

Q1 2023

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2027+13.3%+7.5%+17.3%
Q4 2025+1.1%-3.9%-11.1%
Q3 2025-8.4%-12.8%-5.9%
Q2 2025-7.5%-8.9%-1.2%
Q1 2025+57.0%+58.4%+57.8%
Q4 2024-17.8%-22.8%-15.1%
Q3 2024-7.9%-6.0%+7.1%
Q2 2024-20.6%-22.7%-33.8%
Q1 2024-4.6%-3.9%-9.8%
Q4 2023+4.3%+7.6%+31.4%
Q3 2023-8.5%-9.2%+7.4%
Q2 2023+0.8%-2.5%-14.5%
Q1 2023-39.4%-41.5%-37.3%
Q4 2022-1.3%-1.5%-15.7%
Q3 2022-15.0%-19.7%-22.1%
Q2 2022-9.4%-12.5%-17.3%
Q1 2022-0.9%+6.1%-4.0%
Q4 2021-0.2%-1.9%-6.9%
Q3 2021-1.4%-3.8%+0.0%
Q2 2021+2.2%-1.9%+3.0%
Q1 2021-1.8%-0.8%+8.4%
Q4 2020+5.9%+8.6%+20.2%
Q3 2020-0.1%-1.7%+1.0%
Q2 2020-0.1%-3.0%-3.9%
Q1 2020+3.5%+1.8%+12.7%
Q4 2019+4.9%+5.3%-35.6%
Q3 2019-6.1%-3.6%-7.5%
Q2 2019-4.0%-3.9%+9.2%
Q1 2019-0.9%-2.0%-5.0%
Q4 2018-2.3%-5.0%-0.5%
Q3 2018+6.4%+7.3%-0.5%
Q2 2018+9.1%+10.3%+15.1%
Q1 2018+3.4%+4.8%+17.1%
Q4 2017+4.9%+9.0%+5.2%
Q3 2017+11.3%+8.5%+21.8%
Q2 2017-16.3%-14.7%-8.5%
Q1 2017-6.2%-4.6%-14.9%
Q4 2016-1.2%-2.6%-6.7%
Q3 2016+13.3%+12.1%+18.3%
Q2 2016-5.8%-5.8%-11.2%
Q1 2016+1.8%
Q4 2015+1.6%
Q3 2015-17.0%
Q2 2015+8.7%
Q1 2015+6.9%
Q4 2014-7.5%
Q3 2014-5.0%
Q2 2014+6.9%
Q1 2014-1.2%
Q4 2013+12.9%
Q3 2013-0.1%
Q2 2013+1.1%
Q1 2013-2.8%
Q4 2012+8.2%
Q3 2012-1.7%
Q2 2012-2.8%
Q1 2012+1.3%
Q4 2009+1.4%
Q3 2011-1.3%
Q2 2011-0.6%
Q1 2011-1.0%
Q3 2010+0.3%
Q2 2010+0.8%
Q1 2010+2.2%
Q4 2010+2.2%

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