NYSE$AAP

Advance Auto Parts Inc · Q4 2020 earnings

Q4 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Advance Auto Parts reported increased net sales and comparable store sales.

Advance Auto Parts reported a strong fourth quarter and full year 2020, with net sales reaching $2.4 billion for the quarter, a 12.0% increase, and comparable store sales increasing by 4.7%. Diluted EPS increased by 19.6% to $1.65, and adjusted diluted EPS increased by 14.0% to $1.87, including a $0.22 impact from COVID-19. The company also crossed $10B in annual net sales for the first time ever.

  • Net sales increased 12.0% to $2.4B; Comparable store sales increased 4.7%.
  • Operating income increased 20.4% to $151.8M.
  • Diluted EPS increased 19.6% to $1.65; Adjusted diluted EPS Increased 14.0% to $1.87 including $0.22 impact from COVID-19.
  • Returned $319.9M to shareholders through the Company's share repurchase program

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$2.37B

Previous: $2.11B+11.9%
EPS (adj)

$1.87

Previous: $1.64+14.0%
Comparable Store Sales

4.7%

Previous: 0.1%+4600.0%
Free Cash Flow

$702M

Previous: $57.5M+1121.9%
Net Income

$112M

Previous: $95.9M+16.8%
Operating Income

$152M

Previous: $126M+20.3%
Gross Profit

$1.08B

Previous: $929M+16.7%
Cash & Equivalents

$835M

Previous: $419M+99.4%
Total Assets

$11.8B

Previous: $11.2B+5.3%

Revenue & EPS history

Advance Auto Parts · Revenue · Quarterly

$2.37B

Q4 2020+11.9%vs Q4 2019
Beat estimate in 13 of 16 quarters(81%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

The Company provided the following assumptions based on projections for the U.S. and guidance ranges related to its 2021 outlook:

Tailwinds

  • An increase in total vehicle miles driven in the U.S. from 2020 but to remain below 2019
  • Consistent year-over-year federal tax rate
  • No material increases in the federal minimum wage
  • A reduction in COVID-19 related expenses
  • Comparable store sales 1.0 % to 3.0 %

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2020

Historical avgQ4 2020

-0.5%

Avg return

Earnings day

-1.9%

Avg return

5 days after

-0.9%

Avg return

30 days after

45%

29 / 65 earnings

Positive

+57.0%

Q1 2025

Best reaction

-39.4%

Q1 2023

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2027+13.3%+7.5%+17.3%
Q4 2025+1.1%-3.9%-11.1%
Q3 2025-8.4%-12.8%-5.9%
Q2 2025-7.5%-8.9%-1.2%
Q1 2025+57.0%+58.4%+57.8%
Q4 2024-17.8%-22.8%-15.1%
Q3 2024-7.9%-6.0%+7.1%
Q2 2024-20.6%-22.7%-33.8%
Q1 2024-4.6%-3.9%-9.8%
Q4 2023+4.3%+7.6%+31.4%
Q3 2023-8.5%-9.2%+7.4%
Q2 2023+0.8%-2.5%-14.5%
Q1 2023-39.4%-41.5%-37.3%
Q4 2022-1.3%-1.5%-15.7%
Q3 2022-15.0%-19.7%-22.1%
Q2 2022-9.4%-12.5%-17.3%
Q1 2022-0.9%+6.1%-4.0%
Q4 2021-0.2%-1.9%-6.9%
Q3 2021-1.4%-3.8%+0.0%
Q2 2021+2.2%-1.9%+3.0%
Q1 2021-1.8%-0.8%+8.4%
Q4 2020+5.9%+8.6%+20.2%
Q3 2020-0.1%-1.7%+1.0%
Q2 2020-0.1%-3.0%-3.9%
Q1 2020+3.5%+1.8%+12.7%
Q4 2019+4.9%+5.3%-35.6%
Q3 2019-6.1%-3.6%-7.5%
Q2 2019-4.0%-3.9%+9.2%
Q1 2019-0.9%-2.0%-5.0%
Q4 2018-2.3%-5.0%-0.5%
Q3 2018+6.4%+7.3%-0.5%
Q2 2018+9.1%+10.3%+15.1%
Q1 2018+3.4%+4.8%+17.1%
Q4 2017+4.9%+9.0%+5.2%
Q3 2017+11.3%+8.5%+21.8%
Q2 2017-16.3%-14.7%-8.5%
Q1 2017-6.2%-4.6%-14.9%
Q4 2016-1.2%-2.6%-6.7%
Q3 2016+13.3%+12.1%+18.3%
Q2 2016-5.8%-5.8%-11.2%
Q1 2016+1.8%
Q4 2015+1.6%
Q3 2015-17.0%
Q2 2015+8.7%
Q1 2015+6.9%
Q4 2014-7.5%
Q3 2014-5.0%
Q2 2014+6.9%
Q1 2014-1.2%
Q4 2013+12.9%
Q3 2013-0.1%
Q2 2013+1.1%
Q1 2013-2.8%
Q4 2012+8.2%
Q3 2012-1.7%
Q2 2012-2.8%
Q1 2012+1.3%
Q4 2009+1.4%
Q3 2011-1.3%
Q2 2011-0.6%
Q1 2011-1.0%
Q3 2010+0.3%
Q2 2010+0.8%
Q1 2010+2.2%
Q4 2010+2.2%

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