NYSE$AAP

Advance Auto Parts Inc · Q4 2021 earnings

Q4 2021 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Advance Auto Parts reported a strong fourth quarter and a record full year in 2021.

Advance Auto Parts reported a 1.3% increase in net sales to $2.4 billion for the fourth quarter of 2021. Comparable store sales growth was 8.2%. The company's adjusted diluted EPS was $2.07, an increase of 35.4% compared to the prior year. The company is introducing full year 2022 guidance.

  • Net sales totaled $2.4 billion, a 1.3% increase compared with the fourth quarter of the prior year.
  • Comparable store sales growth for the fourth quarter 2021 was 8.2%.
  • Adjusted gross profit increased 12.1% from the comparative 12 weeks in the fourth quarter of 2020 to $1.1 billion in the fourth quarter of 2021.
  • Adjusted diluted EPS was $2.07 in the fourth quarter of 2021, an increase of 35.4% compared with the comparative 12 weeks in the same quarter of the prior year.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$2.4B

Previous: $2.37B+1.5%
EPS (adj)

$2.07

Previous: $1.87+10.7%
Comparable Store Sales

8.2%

Previous: 4.7%+74.5%
Capital Expenditures

$268M

No prior period
Free Cash Flow

$702M

Previous: $702M+0.0%
Net Income

$81.7M

Previous: $112M-27.1%
Operating Income

$112M

Previous: $152M-25.9%
Gross Profit

$1.07B

Previous: $1.08B-1.1%
Cash & Equivalents

$601M

Previous: $835M-28.0%
Total Assets

$12.2B

Previous: $11.8B+3.0%
Stock-Based Comp

$45.3M

No prior period

Revenue & EPS history

Advance Auto Parts · Revenue · Quarterly

$2.4B

Q4 2021+1.5%vs Q4 2020
Beat estimate in 11 of 16 quarters(69%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

Full Year 2022 Guidance: Net sales between $11.2 billion and $11.5 billion, comparable store sales growth between 1.0% and 3.0%, adjusted operating income margin between 10.0% and 10.2%, adjusted diluted EPS between $13.20 and $13.75, capital expenditures between $300 million and $350 million, minimum free cash flow of $775 million, and share repurchases between $500 million and $700 million.

Tailwinds

  • Net sales between $11,200 million and $11,500 million
  • Comparable store sales between 1.0% and 3.0%
  • Adjusted operating income margin between 10.0% and 10.2%
  • Income tax rate between 24.0% and 26.0%
  • Adjusted diluted EPS between $13.20 and $13.75

Headwinds

  • Capital expenditures between $300 million and $350 million
  • Minimum free cash flow of $775 million
  • Share repurchases between $500 million and $700 million
  • New store and branch openings between 125 and 150
  • Macroeconomic uncertainty related to the acceleration of inflation across the economy and the impact it could have on our core customer

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2021

Historical avgQ4 2021

-0.4%

Avg return

Earnings day

-2.1%

Avg return

5 days after

-1.4%

Avg return

30 days after

45%

29 / 65 earnings

Positive

+57.0%

Q1 2025

Best reaction

-39.4%

Q1 2023

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2027+18.9%
Q4 2025+1.1%-3.9%-11.1%
Q3 2025-8.4%-12.8%-5.9%
Q2 2025-7.5%-8.9%-1.2%
Q1 2025+57.0%+58.4%+57.8%
Q4 2024-17.8%-22.8%-15.1%
Q3 2024-7.9%-6.0%+7.1%
Q2 2024-20.6%-22.7%-33.8%
Q1 2024-4.6%-3.9%-9.8%
Q4 2023+4.3%+7.6%+31.4%
Q3 2023-8.5%-9.2%+7.4%
Q2 2023+0.8%-2.5%-14.5%
Q1 2023-39.4%-41.5%-37.3%
Q4 2022-1.3%-1.5%-15.7%
Q3 2022-15.0%-19.7%-22.1%
Q2 2022-9.4%-12.5%-17.3%
Q1 2022-0.9%+6.1%-4.0%
Q4 2021-0.2%-1.9%-6.9%
Q3 2021-1.4%-3.8%+0.0%
Q2 2021+2.2%-1.9%+3.0%
Q1 2021-1.8%-0.8%+8.4%
Q4 2020+5.9%+8.6%+20.2%
Q3 2020-0.1%-1.7%+1.0%
Q2 2020-0.1%-3.0%-3.9%
Q1 2020+3.5%+1.8%+12.7%
Q4 2019+4.9%+5.3%-35.6%
Q3 2019-6.1%-3.6%-7.5%
Q2 2019-4.0%-3.9%+9.2%
Q1 2019-0.9%-2.0%-5.0%
Q4 2018-2.3%-5.0%-0.5%
Q3 2018+6.4%+7.3%-0.5%
Q2 2018+9.1%+10.3%+15.1%
Q1 2018+3.4%+4.8%+17.1%
Q4 2017+4.9%+9.0%+5.2%
Q3 2017+11.3%+8.5%+21.8%
Q2 2017-16.3%-14.7%-8.5%
Q1 2017-6.2%-4.6%-14.9%
Q4 2016-1.2%-2.6%-6.7%
Q3 2016+13.3%+12.1%+18.3%
Q2 2016-5.8%-5.8%-11.2%
Q1 2016+1.8%
Q4 2015+1.6%
Q3 2015-17.0%
Q2 2015+8.7%
Q1 2015+6.9%
Q4 2014-7.5%
Q3 2014-5.0%
Q2 2014+6.9%
Q1 2014-1.2%
Q4 2013+12.9%
Q3 2013-0.1%
Q2 2013+1.1%
Q1 2013-2.8%
Q4 2012+8.2%
Q3 2012-1.7%
Q2 2012-2.8%
Q1 2012+1.3%
Q4 2009+1.4%
Q3 2011-1.3%
Q2 2011-0.6%
Q1 2011-1.0%
Q3 2010+0.3%
Q2 2010+0.8%
Q1 2010+2.2%
Q4 2010+2.2%

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