NYSE$AAP

Advance Auto Parts Inc · Q4 2023 earnings

Q4 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Advance Auto Parts reported a decrease in net sales and gross profit compared to the prior year, with an operating loss for the quarter. The company is focused on stabilizing the business and returning to profitable growth.

Advance Auto Parts reported a decrease in net sales and comparable store sales for the fourth quarter of 2023. The company experienced a significant decrease in gross profit and an operating loss, driven by business performance, inventory-related items, and elevated supply chain costs. Leadership changes and cost reduction initiatives are underway to improve performance.

  • Net sales decreased by 0.4% to $2.5 billion compared to the prior year.
  • Comparable store sales decreased by 1.4%.
  • Gross profit decreased by 11.9% to $950.8 million, or 38.6% of net sales.
  • Operating loss was $48.6 million, compared to an operating income of $119.3 million in the prior year.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$2.46B

Previous: $2.47B-0.4%
EPS (adj)

-$0.59

Previous: $2.88-120.5%
Comparable Store Sales

-1.4%

Previous: 2.1%-166.7%
Capital Expenditures

-$55.2M

Previous: $90.4M-161.1%
Net Income

-$35.1M

Previous: $107M-132.9%
Operating Income

-$48.6M

Previous: $132M-136.8%
Gross Profit

$951M

Previous: $1.1B-13.6%
Stock-Based Comp

$8.21M

Previous: $10.7M-23.2%

Revenue & EPS history

Advance Auto Parts · Revenue · Quarterly

$2.46B

Q4 2023-0.4%vs Q4 2022
Beat estimate in 10 of 14 quarters(71%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

Advance Auto Parts provided full year 2024 guidance, including net sales between $11.3 and $11.4 billion, comparable store sales growth between 0.0% and 1.0%, operating income margin between 3.2% and 3.5%, diluted EPS between $3.75 and $4.25, capital expenditures between $200 and $250 million and free cash flow minimum $250 million.

Tailwinds

  • Refining operational improvement plans.
  • Building on decisive actions to turn around the company’s performance.
  • Committed to improving overall productivity.
  • Taking a disciplined approach to reducing expenses.
  • Focusing on investing in team members.

Headwinds

  • Guidance is reflective of the steps we must take to reset the business.
  • Solidify foundation for the long-term.
  • Potential future acquisitions are not reflected.
  • Potential future dispositions are not reflected.
  • Share repurchases are not reflected.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2023

Historical avgQ4 2023

-0.5%

Avg return

Earnings day

-1.9%

Avg return

5 days after

-0.9%

Avg return

30 days after

45%

29 / 65 earnings

Positive

+57.0%

Q1 2025

Best reaction

-39.4%

Q1 2023

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2027+13.3%+7.5%+17.3%
Q4 2025+1.1%-3.9%-11.1%
Q3 2025-8.4%-12.8%-5.9%
Q2 2025-7.5%-8.9%-1.2%
Q1 2025+57.0%+58.4%+57.8%
Q4 2024-17.8%-22.8%-15.1%
Q3 2024-7.9%-6.0%+7.1%
Q2 2024-20.6%-22.7%-33.8%
Q1 2024-4.6%-3.9%-9.8%
Q4 2023+4.3%+7.6%+31.4%
Q3 2023-8.5%-9.2%+7.4%
Q2 2023+0.8%-2.5%-14.5%
Q1 2023-39.4%-41.5%-37.3%
Q4 2022-1.3%-1.5%-15.7%
Q3 2022-15.0%-19.7%-22.1%
Q2 2022-9.4%-12.5%-17.3%
Q1 2022-0.9%+6.1%-4.0%
Q4 2021-0.2%-1.9%-6.9%
Q3 2021-1.4%-3.8%+0.0%
Q2 2021+2.2%-1.9%+3.0%
Q1 2021-1.8%-0.8%+8.4%
Q4 2020+5.9%+8.6%+20.2%
Q3 2020-0.1%-1.7%+1.0%
Q2 2020-0.1%-3.0%-3.9%
Q1 2020+3.5%+1.8%+12.7%
Q4 2019+4.9%+5.3%-35.6%
Q3 2019-6.1%-3.6%-7.5%
Q2 2019-4.0%-3.9%+9.2%
Q1 2019-0.9%-2.0%-5.0%
Q4 2018-2.3%-5.0%-0.5%
Q3 2018+6.4%+7.3%-0.5%
Q2 2018+9.1%+10.3%+15.1%
Q1 2018+3.4%+4.8%+17.1%
Q4 2017+4.9%+9.0%+5.2%
Q3 2017+11.3%+8.5%+21.8%
Q2 2017-16.3%-14.7%-8.5%
Q1 2017-6.2%-4.6%-14.9%
Q4 2016-1.2%-2.6%-6.7%
Q3 2016+13.3%+12.1%+18.3%
Q2 2016-5.8%-5.8%-11.2%
Q1 2016+1.8%
Q4 2015+1.6%
Q3 2015-17.0%
Q2 2015+8.7%
Q1 2015+6.9%
Q4 2014-7.5%
Q3 2014-5.0%
Q2 2014+6.9%
Q1 2014-1.2%
Q4 2013+12.9%
Q3 2013-0.1%
Q2 2013+1.1%
Q1 2013-2.8%
Q4 2012+8.2%
Q3 2012-1.7%
Q2 2012-2.8%
Q1 2012+1.3%
Q4 2009+1.4%
Q3 2011-1.3%
Q2 2011-0.6%
Q1 2011-1.0%
Q3 2010+0.3%
Q2 2010+0.8%
Q1 2010+2.2%
Q4 2010+2.2%

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