NASDAQ$ULCC
Frontier Group Holdings Inc · Q4 2022 earnings
Q4 2022 earnings · · Investor relations
Briefing
Frontier reported a profitable fourth quarter in 2022, driven by strong revenue and cost performance.
Frontier Airlines reported a profitable fourth quarter of 2022, with total operating revenues of $906 million, a 38% increase compared to 2019. The company achieved record ancillary revenue per passenger and improved unit costs. Pre-tax income was $50 million, with an adjusted pre-tax margin of 5.7%.
- Total operating revenues reached $906 million, 38% higher than 2019.
- Record ancillary revenue of $82 per passenger, 41% higher than 2019.
- CASM (excluding fuel) was 6.43 cents, and adjusted (non-GAAP) CASM (excluding fuel) was 6.40 cents.
- Pre-tax margin of 5.5% and an adjusted (non-GAAP) pre-tax margin of 5.7%.
Headline financials
Revenue & EPS history
Frontier · Revenue · Quarterly
$906M
Revenue by segment
Frontier · $906M total across 2 segments · Q4 2022
- Passenger$887M+49.8%97.9%
- Other$19M+11.8%2.1%
Forward guidance
Frontier provided guidance for Q1 2023 and full-year 2023, anticipating capacity growth and unit cost efficiencies. Elevated fuel prices and seasonal travel patterns are expected to result in an adjusted pre-tax loss in Q1.
Tailwinds
- Capacity is anticipated to grow 17% to 19% in the first quarter of 2023 compared to the 2022 quarter.
- Full-year capacity is expected to grow 23% to 28% over 2022.
- Adjusted (non-GAAP) CASM (excluding fuel) to be below six cents during the second half of 2023.
- Adjusted (non-GAAP) CASM (excluding fuel) to be modestly above six cents for the full year.
- Effective tax rate for both the first quarter and full-year 2023 is estimated to be approximately 24 percent.
Headwinds
- The first quarter 2023 guidance is based on the Company's current estimates and is not a guarantee of future performance.
- This guidance is subject to significant risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially.
- Airbus notified the Company of its intent to shift aircraft deliveries by a range of one to five months for aircraft initially scheduled in 2023.
- Nine A321neo aircraft to shift into 2024 from 2023 reducing available capacity growth in 2023 by approximately five percent.
- Elevated fuel prices and the seasonal effect of leisure travel flows are anticipated to result in an adjusted (non-GAAP) pre-tax loss in the first quarter, reflecting an expected margin between (2) and (6) percent (excluding special items).
Historical earnings impact
How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.
Avg. return before/after earnings
Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2022
+2.4%
Avg return
Earnings day
+2.8%
Avg return
5 days after
+0.4%
Avg return
30 days after
56%
14 / 25 earnings
Positive
+33.8%
Q4 2023
Best reaction
-18.4%
Q1 2023
Worst reaction
| Quarter | Report date | Reaction (Day 0) | +5 days | +30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | +10.5% | +15.1% | +35.7% | |
| Q4 2025 | -7.9% | -10.2% | -43.5% | |
| Q3 2025 | +0.3% | -1.6% | +34.3% | |
| Q1 2025 | +7.6% | +12.2% | +29.3% | |
| Q4 2024 | +15.5% | +14.3% | -17.9% | |
| Q3 2024 | -14.0% | -17.9% | -21.7% | |
| Q2 2024 | +0.6% | -1.0% | +21.0% | |
| Q1 2024 | -1.4% | +2.7% | -6.3% | |
| Q4 2023 | +33.8% | +47.0% | +45.8% | |
| Q3 2023 | -1.0% | -11.7% | +5.2% | |
| Q2 2023 | -9.7% | -13.0% | -32.5% | |
| Q1 2023 | -18.4% | -13.6% | -2.5% | |
| Q4 2022 | -15.0% | -16.5% | -21.8% | |
| Q3 2022 | +19.7% | +32.2% | +35.7% | |
| Q2 2022 | +28.2% | +32.1% | +21.8% | |
| Q1 2022 | +1.5% | +0.8% | +0.0% | |
| Q4 2019 | +3.3% | +2.1% | -10.3% | |
| Q4 2021 | +7.3% | +10.2% | -12.8% | |
| Q3 2021 | -3.5% | -2.9% | -18.2% | |
| Q3 2020 | -3.5% | -2.9% | -18.2% | |
| Q2 2021 | +0.0% | -2.6% | +3.4% | |
| Q2 2020 | +0.0% | -2.6% | +3.4% | |
| Q1 2021 | +1.9% | -0.6% | -6.7% | |
| Q4 2020 | +1.9% | -0.6% | -6.7% | |
| Q1 2020 | +1.9% | -0.6% | -6.7% | |
| Q1 2017 | — | — | — | |
| Q1 2016 | — | — | — |
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