NASDAQ$ULCC

Frontier Group Holdings Inc · Q4 2022 earnings

Q4 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Frontier reported a profitable fourth quarter in 2022, driven by strong revenue and cost performance.

Frontier Airlines reported a profitable fourth quarter of 2022, with total operating revenues of $906 million, a 38% increase compared to 2019. The company achieved record ancillary revenue per passenger and improved unit costs. Pre-tax income was $50 million, with an adjusted pre-tax margin of 5.7%.

  • Total operating revenues reached $906 million, 38% higher than 2019.
  • Record ancillary revenue of $82 per passenger, 41% higher than 2019.
  • CASM (excluding fuel) was 6.43 cents, and adjusted (non-GAAP) CASM (excluding fuel) was 6.40 cents.
  • Pre-tax margin of 5.5% and an adjusted (non-GAAP) pre-tax margin of 5.7%.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$906M

Previous: $609M+48.8%
EPS (adj)

$0.18

Previous: -$0.24+175.0%
RASM (cents)

$10.45

No prior period
Fuel Cost per Gallon

$3.60

Previous: $2.43+48.1%
Avg Daily Aircraft Utilization

11.5

No prior period
Net Income

$40M

Previous: -$53M+175.5%
Operating Income

$45M

Previous: -$86M+152.3%
Gross Profit

$116M

Previous: -$16M+825.0%
Cash & Equivalents

$761M

Previous: $918M-17.1%
Total Assets

$4.5B

Previous: $4.24B+6.2%
Stock-Based Comp

$4M

Previous: $3M+33.3%

Revenue & EPS history

Frontier · Revenue · Quarterly

$906M

Q4 2022+48.8%vs Q4 2021
Beat estimate in 5 of 15 quarters(33%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Frontier · $906M total across 2 segments · Q4 2022

  • Passenger
    $887M+49.8%
  • Other
    $19M+11.8%

Forward guidance

Frontier provided guidance for Q1 2023 and full-year 2023, anticipating capacity growth and unit cost efficiencies. Elevated fuel prices and seasonal travel patterns are expected to result in an adjusted pre-tax loss in Q1.

Tailwinds

  • Capacity is anticipated to grow 17% to 19% in the first quarter of 2023 compared to the 2022 quarter.
  • Full-year capacity is expected to grow 23% to 28% over 2022.
  • Adjusted (non-GAAP) CASM (excluding fuel) to be below six cents during the second half of 2023.
  • Adjusted (non-GAAP) CASM (excluding fuel) to be modestly above six cents for the full year.
  • Effective tax rate for both the first quarter and full-year 2023 is estimated to be approximately 24 percent.

Headwinds

  • The first quarter 2023 guidance is based on the Company's current estimates and is not a guarantee of future performance.
  • This guidance is subject to significant risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially.
  • Airbus notified the Company of its intent to shift aircraft deliveries by a range of one to five months for aircraft initially scheduled in 2023.
  • Nine A321neo aircraft to shift into 2024 from 2023 reducing available capacity growth in 2023 by approximately five percent.
  • Elevated fuel prices and the seasonal effect of leisure travel flows are anticipated to result in an adjusted (non-GAAP) pre-tax loss in the first quarter, reflecting an expected margin between (2) and (6) percent (excluding special items).

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2022

Historical avgQ4 2022

+2.4%

Avg return

Earnings day

+2.8%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.4%

Avg return

30 days after

56%

14 / 25 earnings

Positive

+33.8%

Q4 2023

Best reaction

-18.4%

Q1 2023

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+10.5%+15.1%+35.7%
Q4 2025-7.9%-10.2%-43.5%
Q3 2025+0.3%-1.6%+34.3%
Q1 2025+7.6%+12.2%+29.3%
Q4 2024+15.5%+14.3%-17.9%
Q3 2024-14.0%-17.9%-21.7%
Q2 2024+0.6%-1.0%+21.0%
Q1 2024-1.4%+2.7%-6.3%
Q4 2023+33.8%+47.0%+45.8%
Q3 2023-1.0%-11.7%+5.2%
Q2 2023-9.7%-13.0%-32.5%
Q1 2023-18.4%-13.6%-2.5%
Q4 2022-15.0%-16.5%-21.8%
Q3 2022+19.7%+32.2%+35.7%
Q2 2022+28.2%+32.1%+21.8%
Q1 2022+1.5%+0.8%+0.0%
Q4 2019+3.3%+2.1%-10.3%
Q4 2021+7.3%+10.2%-12.8%
Q3 2021-3.5%-2.9%-18.2%
Q3 2020-3.5%-2.9%-18.2%
Q2 2021+0.0%-2.6%+3.4%
Q2 2020+0.0%-2.6%+3.4%
Q1 2021+1.9%-0.6%-6.7%
Q4 2020+1.9%-0.6%-6.7%
Q1 2020+1.9%-0.6%-6.7%
Q1 2017
Q1 2016

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