NASDAQ$ULCC

Frontier Group Holdings Inc · Q4 2024 earnings

Q4 2024 earnings · · Before market open · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported solid fourth quarter financial results on record revenue.

Frontier Airlines reported record fourth-quarter revenue of $1.0 billion, a 12% increase year-over-year, driven by disciplined capacity deployment and revenue initiatives. Pre-tax margin was 5.1 percent and the company ended the year with $935 million in total liquidity.

  • Pre-tax margin and adjusted (non-GAAP) pre-tax margin were both 5.1 percent for the fourth quarter
  • Ended the year with $935 million of total liquidity, bolstered by the Company's undrawn revolving line of credit, representing approximately 25 percent of trailing twelve month revenue compared to 17 percent at the end of 2023
  • RASM was 10.23 cents, 15 percent higher than the comparable 2023 quarter
  • Total operating revenues were $1.0 billion, a record for any quarter in Frontier's history and 12 percent higher than the comparable 2023 quarter, on 2 percent lower capacity

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1B

Previous: $891M+12.5%
EPS (adj)

$0.23

Previous: -$0.17+238.0%
RASM (cents)

$10.23

No prior period
CASM (cents)

$9.78

Previous: $8.93+9.5%
CASM ex-fuel (cents)

$7.44

No prior period
Fuel Cost per Gallon

$2.48

No prior period
Load Factor

78.3%

Previous: 78.1%+0.3%
Average Seats per Departure

207

Previous: 201+3.0%
Total Revenue per Passenger

$117.17

No prior period
Avg Daily Aircraft Utilization

9.6

No prior period
Passengers

8.6M

No prior period
Full-time Equivalent Employees

7.9K

No prior period
Net Income

$54M

Previous: -$37M+245.9%
Operating Income

$45M

Previous: -$3M+1600.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Frontier · Revenue · Quarterly

$1B

Q4 2024+12.5%vs Q4 2023
Beat estimate in 5 of 15 quarters(33%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Frontier · $883M total across 2 segments · Q3 2023

  • Passenger
    $862M-2.4%
  • Other
    $21M-8.7%

Forward guidance

Frontier's revenue and network initiatives are continuing to gain momentum, which, along with the Company's significant cost advantage, are expected to be the foundation for margin expansion in full-year 2025 compared to full-year 2024. The Company expects continued disciplined capacity allocation between peak and off-peak days to align with travel demand patterns and contribute to revenue and RASM growth in 2025.

Tailwinds

  • Achieving double-digit adjusted pre-tax margins in the summer of 2025
  • Adjusted (non-GAAP) diluted earnings per share breakeven to $0.07
  • Adjusted (non-GAAP) diluted earnings per share at least $1.00
  • Average fuel cost (including fuel taxes and into-plane costs) of $2.60 per gallon for the first quarter of 2025
  • Estimated weighted average diluted shares outstanding of 230 million shares in the first quarter 2025

Headwinds

  • Significant risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially
  • The Company is unable to reconcile these forward-looking projections to GAAP as the nature or amount of such special items cannot be determined at this time.
  • The Company's first quarter and full-year 2025 actual tax rate may be impacted by varying factors
  • Other capital expenditures estimate includes capitalized heavy maintenance
  • Average fuel cost (including fuel taxes and into-plane costs) of $2.55 per gallon for the full-year 2025

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2024

Historical avgQ4 2024

+2.4%

Avg return

Earnings day

+2.8%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.4%

Avg return

30 days after

56%

14 / 25 earnings

Positive

+33.8%

Q4 2023

Best reaction

-18.4%

Q1 2023

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+10.5%+15.1%+35.7%
Q4 2025-7.9%-10.2%-43.5%
Q3 2025+0.3%-1.6%+34.3%
Q1 2025+7.6%+12.2%+29.3%
Q4 2024+15.5%+14.3%-17.9%
Q3 2024-14.0%-17.9%-21.7%
Q2 2024+0.6%-1.0%+21.0%
Q1 2024-1.4%+2.7%-6.3%
Q4 2023+33.8%+47.0%+45.8%
Q3 2023-1.0%-11.7%+5.2%
Q2 2023-9.7%-13.0%-32.5%
Q1 2023-18.4%-13.6%-2.5%
Q4 2022-15.0%-16.5%-21.8%
Q3 2022+19.7%+32.2%+35.7%
Q2 2022+28.2%+32.1%+21.8%
Q1 2022+1.5%+0.8%+0.0%
Q4 2019+3.3%+2.1%-10.3%
Q4 2021+7.3%+10.2%-12.8%
Q3 2021-3.5%-2.9%-18.2%
Q3 2020-3.5%-2.9%-18.2%
Q2 2021+0.0%-2.6%+3.4%
Q2 2020+0.0%-2.6%+3.4%
Q1 2021+1.9%-0.6%-6.7%
Q4 2020+1.9%-0.6%-6.7%
Q1 2020+1.9%-0.6%-6.7%
Q1 2017
Q1 2016

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