NASDAQ$ULCC

Frontier Group Holdings Inc · Q2 2022 earnings

Q2 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported profitable results driven by record revenue growth and ancillary revenue.

Frontier Airlines reported a profitable second quarter of 2022, achieving record revenue growth of 43% compared to pre-COVID levels in 2019. The company's strong revenue performance, driven by high demand and record ancillary revenue, offset the impact of high fuel prices and other cost inflation, resulting in a net income of $13 million and an adjusted net income of $20 million.

  • Total operating revenues reached $909 million, a 43% increase compared to the second quarter of 2019.
  • Ancillary revenue per passenger hit a record $75, up 33% from the second quarter of 2019.
  • The company ended the quarter with $766 million in unrestricted cash and cash equivalents.
  • Frontier operated the most fuel-efficient fleet among major U.S. carriers, generating 100 ASMs per gallon.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$909M

Previous: $550M+65.3%
EPS (adj)

$0.09

Previous: -$0.24+137.5%
Load Factor

84.1%

Previous: 80.0%+5.1%
Free Cash Flow

$13M

Previous: $19M-31.6%
Net Income

$13M

Previous: $19M-31.6%
Operating Income

$7M

Previous: $18M-61.1%
Gross Profit

-$588M

Previous: -$379M-55.1%
Cash & Equivalents

$766M

Previous: $936M-18.2%
Total Assets

$4.25B

Previous: $4.29B-1.0%
Stock-Based Comp

$4M

Previous: $2M+100.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Frontier · Revenue · Quarterly

$909M

Q2 2022+65.3%vs Q2 2021
Beat estimate in 5 of 15 quarters(33%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Frontier · $909M total across 2 segments · Q2 2022

  • Passenger
    $890M
  • Other
    $19M

Forward guidance

Frontier anticipates record revenue in Q3 2022, with RASM growth exceeding 20% compared to Q3 2019. Capacity is projected to increase by 8-10% compared to Q3 2019, with full-year capacity expected to grow by 12-15% versus 2019. Adjusted pre-tax margin is anticipated to be between 1% and 5%.

Tailwinds

  • Record revenue expected in the third quarter of 2022.
  • RASM growth of over 20% compared to the third quarter of 2019.
  • Capacity growth of 8% to 10% in the third quarter compared to 2019.
  • Pre-tax profitability expected for the third quarter, excluding special items.
  • Expansion of adjusted pre-tax margins is expected in the fourth quarter and beyond.

Headwinds

  • Fuel costs are anticipated to be between $3.75 to $3.80 per gallon.
  • Adjusted total operating expenses (excluding fuel) are expected to be between $565 to $585 million in the third quarter.
  • Guidance is subject to significant risks and uncertainties.
  • The company's expectation that demand will continue to recover to more normalized levels as 2022 progresses.
  • The actual capacity adjustments made by the Company may be different than what is currently expected, and those differences may be material.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q2 2022

Historical avgQ2 2022

+2.4%

Avg return

Earnings day

+2.8%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.4%

Avg return

30 days after

56%

14 / 25 earnings

Positive

+33.8%

Q4 2023

Best reaction

-18.4%

Q1 2023

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+10.5%+15.1%+35.7%
Q4 2025-7.9%-10.2%-43.5%
Q3 2025+0.3%-1.6%+34.3%
Q1 2025+7.6%+12.2%+29.3%
Q4 2024+15.5%+14.3%-17.9%
Q3 2024-14.0%-17.9%-21.7%
Q2 2024+0.6%-1.0%+21.0%
Q1 2024-1.4%+2.7%-6.3%
Q4 2023+33.8%+47.0%+45.8%
Q3 2023-1.0%-11.7%+5.2%
Q2 2023-9.7%-13.0%-32.5%
Q1 2023-18.4%-13.6%-2.5%
Q4 2022-15.0%-16.5%-21.8%
Q3 2022+19.7%+32.2%+35.7%
Q2 2022+28.2%+32.1%+21.8%
Q1 2022+1.5%+0.8%+0.0%
Q4 2019+3.3%+2.1%-10.3%
Q4 2021+7.3%+10.2%-12.8%
Q3 2021-3.5%-2.9%-18.2%
Q3 2020-3.5%-2.9%-18.2%
Q2 2021+0.0%-2.6%+3.4%
Q2 2020+0.0%-2.6%+3.4%
Q1 2021+1.9%-0.6%-6.7%
Q4 2020+1.9%-0.6%-6.7%
Q1 2020+1.9%-0.6%-6.7%
Q1 2017
Q1 2016

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