NASDAQ$ULCC

Frontier Group Holdings Inc · Q1 2024 earnings

Q1 2024 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Frontier Airlines reported financial results that exceeded expectations due to rigorous cost and revenue management.

Frontier Airlines reported a total operating revenue of $865 million, a 2% increase compared to Q1 2023, driven by an 8% capacity growth. The company's cost management and revenue diversification strategies contributed to better-than-expected results, with a focus on underserved, high-fare markets and network enhancements.

  • Total operating revenues increased by 2% to $865 million compared to Q1 2023.
  • Pre-tax loss was $24 million, with a margin of (2.8) percent, reflecting better cost and revenue performance.
  • Adjusted CASM (excluding fuel) was 6.71 cents, and stage-adjusted to 1,000 miles, was 3% lower than the comparable 2023 quarter.
  • The airline took delivery of six A321neo aircraft, increasing fuel efficiency and fleet composition of A320neo family aircraft to 80%.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$865M

Previous: $848M+2.0%
EPS

-$0.12

Previous: -$0.05-140.0%
Fuel Cost per Gallon

$2.93

Previous: $3.45-15.1%
Load Factor

72.7%

Previous: 82.8%-12.2%
Average Seats per Departure

202

Previous: 195+3.6%
Full-time Equivalent Employees

7.7K

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$17M

No prior period
Free Cash Flow

-$26M

Previous: -$13M-100.0%
Net Income

-$26M

Previous: -$13M-100.0%
Operating Income

-$31M

Previous: -$25M-24.0%
Gross Profit

-$559M

Previous: -$547M-2.2%
Cash & Equivalents

$622M

Previous: $790M-21.3%
Total Assets

$5.21B

Previous: $4.67B+11.5%
Stock-Based Comp

$4M

Previous: $4M+0.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Frontier · Revenue · Quarterly

$865M

Q1 2024+2%vs Q1 2023
Beat estimate in 5 of 15 quarters(33%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Frontier · $883M total across 2 segments · Q3 2023

  • Passenger
    $862M-2.4%
  • Other
    $21M-8.7%

Forward guidance

Frontier expects sequential improvement in adjusted pre-tax margin in Q2 2024, supported by network simplification, revenue diversification, and non-fuel cost savings. The full-year 2024 adjusted pre-tax margin is guided at 3 to 6 percent, despite higher fuel costs.

Tailwinds

  • Capacity is expected to grow by 12 to 14 percent in Q2 2024.
  • Allocation of capacity to new, high-fare, underserved markets is expected to drive higher RASM as they mature.
  • Adjusted total operating expenses (excluding fuel) are projected to be $705 to $720 million for Q2 2024.
  • Adjusted pre-tax margin is expected to be 3 to 6 percent in Q2 2024, including the impact of higher fuel prices and network transition.
  • Full-year capacity is expected to be 12 to 15 percent higher compared to 2023.

Headwinds

  • Fuel costs are expected to be $2.80 to $2.90 per gallon for both Q2 and full-year 2024, an increase of $0.10 per gallon from previous guidance.
  • Capacity adjustments may be materially different than currently expected due to the dynamic demand environment.
  • The company is unable to reconcile forward-looking projections to GAAP as the nature or amount of special items cannot be determined at this time.
  • Second quarter actual tax rate may differ from the forecasted rate due to varying factors.
  • Full year adjusted CASM (excluding fuel), stage-length adjusted to 1,000 miles, is expected to be down 1 to 3 percent over the prior year.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2024

Historical avgQ1 2024

+2.4%

Avg return

Earnings day

+2.8%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.4%

Avg return

30 days after

56%

14 / 25 earnings

Positive

+33.8%

Q4 2023

Best reaction

-18.4%

Q1 2023

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+10.5%+15.1%+35.7%
Q4 2025-7.9%-10.2%-43.5%
Q3 2025+0.3%-1.6%+34.3%
Q1 2025+7.6%+12.2%+29.3%
Q4 2024+15.5%+14.3%-17.9%
Q3 2024-14.0%-17.9%-21.7%
Q2 2024+0.6%-1.0%+21.0%
Q1 2024-1.4%+2.7%-6.3%
Q4 2023+33.8%+47.0%+45.8%
Q3 2023-1.0%-11.7%+5.2%
Q2 2023-9.7%-13.0%-32.5%
Q1 2023-18.4%-13.6%-2.5%
Q4 2022-15.0%-16.5%-21.8%
Q3 2022+19.7%+32.2%+35.7%
Q2 2022+28.2%+32.1%+21.8%
Q1 2022+1.5%+0.8%+0.0%
Q4 2019+3.3%+2.1%-10.3%
Q4 2021+7.3%+10.2%-12.8%
Q3 2021-3.5%-2.9%-18.2%
Q3 2020-3.5%-2.9%-18.2%
Q2 2021+0.0%-2.6%+3.4%
Q2 2020+0.0%-2.6%+3.4%
Q1 2021+1.9%-0.6%-6.7%
Q4 2020+1.9%-0.6%-6.7%
Q1 2020+1.9%-0.6%-6.7%
Q1 2017
Q1 2016

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