NASDAQ$ULCC
Frontier Group Holdings Inc · Q1 2024 earnings
Q1 2024 earnings · · Investor relations
Briefing
Frontier Airlines reported financial results that exceeded expectations due to rigorous cost and revenue management.
Frontier Airlines reported a total operating revenue of $865 million, a 2% increase compared to Q1 2023, driven by an 8% capacity growth. The company's cost management and revenue diversification strategies contributed to better-than-expected results, with a focus on underserved, high-fare markets and network enhancements.
- Total operating revenues increased by 2% to $865 million compared to Q1 2023.
- Pre-tax loss was $24 million, with a margin of (2.8) percent, reflecting better cost and revenue performance.
- Adjusted CASM (excluding fuel) was 6.71 cents, and stage-adjusted to 1,000 miles, was 3% lower than the comparable 2023 quarter.
- The airline took delivery of six A321neo aircraft, increasing fuel efficiency and fleet composition of A320neo family aircraft to 80%.
Headline financials
Revenue & EPS history
Frontier · Revenue · Quarterly
$865M
Revenue by segment
Frontier · $883M total across 2 segments · Q3 2023
- Passenger$862M-2.4%97.6%
- Other$21M-8.7%2.4%
Forward guidance
Frontier expects sequential improvement in adjusted pre-tax margin in Q2 2024, supported by network simplification, revenue diversification, and non-fuel cost savings. The full-year 2024 adjusted pre-tax margin is guided at 3 to 6 percent, despite higher fuel costs.
Tailwinds
- Capacity is expected to grow by 12 to 14 percent in Q2 2024.
- Allocation of capacity to new, high-fare, underserved markets is expected to drive higher RASM as they mature.
- Adjusted total operating expenses (excluding fuel) are projected to be $705 to $720 million for Q2 2024.
- Adjusted pre-tax margin is expected to be 3 to 6 percent in Q2 2024, including the impact of higher fuel prices and network transition.
- Full-year capacity is expected to be 12 to 15 percent higher compared to 2023.
Headwinds
- Fuel costs are expected to be $2.80 to $2.90 per gallon for both Q2 and full-year 2024, an increase of $0.10 per gallon from previous guidance.
- Capacity adjustments may be materially different than currently expected due to the dynamic demand environment.
- The company is unable to reconcile forward-looking projections to GAAP as the nature or amount of special items cannot be determined at this time.
- Second quarter actual tax rate may differ from the forecasted rate due to varying factors.
- Full year adjusted CASM (excluding fuel), stage-length adjusted to 1,000 miles, is expected to be down 1 to 3 percent over the prior year.
Historical earnings impact
How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.
Avg. return before/after earnings
Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2024
+2.4%
Avg return
Earnings day
+2.8%
Avg return
5 days after
+0.4%
Avg return
30 days after
56%
14 / 25 earnings
Positive
+33.8%
Q4 2023
Best reaction
-18.4%
Q1 2023
Worst reaction
| Quarter | Report date | Reaction (Day 0) | +5 days | +30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | +10.5% | +15.1% | +35.7% | |
| Q4 2025 | -7.9% | -10.2% | -43.5% | |
| Q3 2025 | +0.3% | -1.6% | +34.3% | |
| Q1 2025 | +7.6% | +12.2% | +29.3% | |
| Q4 2024 | +15.5% | +14.3% | -17.9% | |
| Q3 2024 | -14.0% | -17.9% | -21.7% | |
| Q2 2024 | +0.6% | -1.0% | +21.0% | |
| Q1 2024 | -1.4% | +2.7% | -6.3% | |
| Q4 2023 | +33.8% | +47.0% | +45.8% | |
| Q3 2023 | -1.0% | -11.7% | +5.2% | |
| Q2 2023 | -9.7% | -13.0% | -32.5% | |
| Q1 2023 | -18.4% | -13.6% | -2.5% | |
| Q4 2022 | -15.0% | -16.5% | -21.8% | |
| Q3 2022 | +19.7% | +32.2% | +35.7% | |
| Q2 2022 | +28.2% | +32.1% | +21.8% | |
| Q1 2022 | +1.5% | +0.8% | +0.0% | |
| Q4 2019 | +3.3% | +2.1% | -10.3% | |
| Q4 2021 | +7.3% | +10.2% | -12.8% | |
| Q3 2021 | -3.5% | -2.9% | -18.2% | |
| Q3 2020 | -3.5% | -2.9% | -18.2% | |
| Q2 2021 | +0.0% | -2.6% | +3.4% | |
| Q2 2020 | +0.0% | -2.6% | +3.4% | |
| Q1 2021 | +1.9% | -0.6% | -6.7% | |
| Q4 2020 | +1.9% | -0.6% | -6.7% | |
| Q1 2020 | +1.9% | -0.6% | -6.7% | |
| Q1 2017 | — | — | — | |
| Q1 2016 | — | — | — |
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