NASDAQ$SERA

Sera Prognostics Inc-A · Q4 2023 earnings

Q4 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported fourth quarter and full year 2023 financial results.

Sera Prognostics reported fourth quarter 2023 revenue of $41,000, a decrease compared to $65,000 for the same period in 2022. The net loss for the quarter was $7.9 million, compared to $9.7 million for the same quarter a year ago.

  • DSMB recommended stopping enrollment in the PRIME study due to efficacy.
  • Preparing manuscript submission to premier medical publications for the PRIME study.
  • Making progress in development of product pipeline and PreTRM® sample collection and assay enhancements.
  • Engaged in focused commercial activities ahead of PRIME data to build toward greater PreTRM® test adoption expectations in 2024-2025.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$41K

Previous: $65K-36.9%
EPS (adj)

-$0.25

Previous: -$0.31+19.4%
Capital Expenditures

-$16K

Previous: $193K-108.3%
Net Income

-$7.93M

Previous: -$9.75M+18.7%
Operating Income

-$8.85M

Previous: -$10.4M+15.1%
Gross Profit

-$195K

Previous: $6K-3350.0%
R&D Expense

$3.68M

No prior period
Stock-Based Comp

$1.35M

Previous: $1.34M+0.4%

Revenue & EPS history

Sera Prognostics · Revenue · Quarterly

$41K

Q4 2023-36.9%vs Q4 2022
Beat estimate in 3 of 15 quarters(20%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

Sera is looking forward to an exciting year of developments, including publication of their PRIME study results while executing on commercial expansion and plans to establish direct relationships with expectant mothers, expecting these activities and advancements in their product pipeline to complement what they believe is their leading position in the area of maternal and neonatal health and pave the way for a future inflection in revenue growth.

Tailwinds

  • Publication of PRIME study results in 2024.
  • Commercial expansion.
  • Plans to establish direct relationships with expectant mothers.
  • Advancements in product pipeline.
  • Potential future inflection in revenue growth.

Headwinds

  • Net losses.
  • Need to generate cash.
  • Potential need to raise more capital.
  • Revenues from the PreTRM Test representing substantially all Company revenues to date.
  • The need for broad scientific and market acceptance of the PreTRM Test.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2023

Historical avgQ4 2023

-1.9%

Avg return

Earnings day

-3.5%

Avg return

5 days after

-3.3%

Avg return

30 days after

36%

8 / 22 earnings

Positive

+14.3%

Q3 2022

Best reaction

-11.7%

Q1 2025

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-3.7%-8.0%+18.1%
Q4 2025-7.7%+6.3%+20.4%
Q3 2025+1.7%+8.5%+19.0%
Q1 2025-11.7%-2.1%-35.4%
Q4 2024-5.1%-2.2%-17.9%
Q3 2024-0.3%-2.7%-3.9%
Q2 2024+0.0%-1.2%-2.2%
Q1 2024+3.3%-4.0%-13.6%
Q4 2023+3.4%+1.1%+7.7%
Q3 2023-3.2%-6.4%+130.9%
Q2 2023+0.8%-10.1%-39.9%
Q1 2023-0.8%-2.8%-13.0%
Q4 2022-10.0%-9.5%-22.3%
Q3 2022+14.3%+11.1%-4.0%
Q2 2022-4.1%-6.3%-27.3%
Q1 2022-7.6%-17.1%-32.7%
Q4 2021+3.6%+0.3%-39.3%
Q3 2021+0.3%-0.8%-8.2%
Q3 2020+0.3%-0.8%-8.2%
Q2 2021-4.8%-9.9%+0.0%
Q1 2021-4.8%-9.9%+0.0%
Q4 2020-4.8%-9.9%+0.0%
Q2 2020
Q1 2020

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