NASDAQ$SERA

Sera Prognostics Inc-A · Q1 2023 earnings

Q1 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported financial results for the first quarter of 2023.

Sera Prognostics reported first quarter 2023 revenue of $100,000, compared to $38,000 for the same period in 2022. The net loss for the quarter was $10.6 million, an improvement over the $12.2 million loss in the first quarter of the previous year. The company had $100 million in cash, cash equivalents, and available-for-sale securities as of March 31, 2023.

  • Announced positive top-line results from the AVERT PRETERM TRIAL.
  • Physician orders increased in Q1 2023 compared to Q1 2022.
  • PRIME study subject enrollment continues, with the interim look analysis anticipated by year-end.
  • Anticipate submission this summer of new compelling data for scientific review for publication.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$100K

Previous: $38K+163.2%
EPS (adj)

-$0.34

Previous: -$0.40+15.0%
Capital Expenditures

-$39K

Previous: -$7K-457.1%
Free Cash Flow

-$10.6M

Previous: -$12.2M+13.2%
Net Income

-$10.6M

Previous: -$12.2M+13.5%
Operating Income

-$11.3M

Previous: -$12.3M+7.9%
Gross Profit

$38K

Previous: $18K+111.1%
Cash & Equivalents

$27.2M

Previous: $64.1M-57.6%
Total Assets

$106M

Previous: $135M-21.7%
Stock-Based Comp

$1.3M

Previous: $1.22M+6.7%

Revenue & EPS history

Sera Prognostics · Revenue · Quarterly

$100K

Q1 2023+163.2%vs Q1 2022
Beat estimate in 3 of 15 quarters(20%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

The company anticipates the PRIME study interim look analysis to take place by year-end and plans to submit new compelling data for scientific review this summer. They expect the publication of AVERT data to drive physician and healthcare institution adoption of the PreTRM test-and-treat strategy and anticipate additional clinical utility information to catalyze the expansion of PreTRM Test use and revenue increase.

Tailwinds

  • PRIME study interim look analysis anticipated by year-end.
  • Submission of new compelling data for scientific review this summer.
  • Publication of AVERT data to drive physician and healthcare institution adoption.
  • Additional clinical utility information expected to catalyze PreTRM Test use expansion.
  • Anticipate increase in revenue with expanded use of PreTRM Test.

Headwinds

  • Net losses and the potential need to raise more capital.
  • Revenues from the PreTRM Test representing substantially all Company revenues to date.
  • The need for broad scientific and market acceptance of the PreTRM Test.
  • Potential third-party payer coverage and reimbursement issues.
  • Changes in FDA regulation of laboratory-developed tests.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2023

Historical avgQ1 2023

-1.9%

Avg return

Earnings day

-3.5%

Avg return

5 days after

-3.3%

Avg return

30 days after

36%

8 / 22 earnings

Positive

+14.3%

Q3 2022

Best reaction

-11.7%

Q1 2025

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-3.7%-8.0%+18.1%
Q4 2025-7.7%+6.3%+20.4%
Q3 2025+1.7%+8.5%+19.0%
Q1 2025-11.7%-2.1%-35.4%
Q4 2024-5.1%-2.2%-17.9%
Q3 2024-0.3%-2.7%-3.9%
Q2 2024+0.0%-1.2%-2.2%
Q1 2024+3.3%-4.0%-13.6%
Q4 2023+3.4%+1.1%+7.7%
Q3 2023-3.2%-6.4%+130.9%
Q2 2023+0.8%-10.1%-39.9%
Q1 2023-0.8%-2.8%-13.0%
Q4 2022-10.0%-9.5%-22.3%
Q3 2022+14.3%+11.1%-4.0%
Q2 2022-4.1%-6.3%-27.3%
Q1 2022-7.6%-17.1%-32.7%
Q4 2021+3.6%+0.3%-39.3%
Q3 2021+0.3%-0.8%-8.2%
Q3 2020+0.3%-0.8%-8.2%
Q2 2021-4.8%-9.9%+0.0%
Q1 2021-4.8%-9.9%+0.0%
Q4 2020-4.8%-9.9%+0.0%
Q2 2020
Q1 2020

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