NASDAQ$SERA

Sera Prognostics Inc-A · Q3 2024 earnings

Q3 2024 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported financial results for the third quarter of 2024 ended September 30, 2024.

Sera Prognostics reported third quarter 2024 revenue of $29,000, a decrease from $42,000 in the same period of 2023. The net loss for the quarter was $7.9 million, compared to $7.2 million for the prior-year period.

  • Data analysis for full PRIME study underway after database was locked in September and now seeking publication of results in connection with key pregnancy and maternal health conferences in early 2025.
  • Awareness campaign activated with TV programs by Viewpoint with Dennis Quaid and Empowered with Meg Ryan.
  • Beginning October 1, 2024, began enabling access to PreTRM® testing through the Company’s website, with home sample collection.
  • Predictive analytics offering is now in beta testing, engaging women with informative reports based on the data from millions of pregnancy experiences, and personalized insights into pregnancies like theirs.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$29K

Previous: $42K-31.0%
EPS

-$0.24

Previous: -$0.23-4.3%
Capital Expenditures

-$48K

Previous: -$112K+57.1%
Free Cash Flow

-$7.97M

Previous: -$7.32M-8.8%
Net Income

-$7.92M

Previous: -$7.21M-9.8%
Operating Income

-$8.86M

Previous: -$8.18M-8.3%
Cash & Equivalents

$2.68M

Previous: $9.66M-72.2%
Total Assets

$79M

Previous: $90.1M-12.3%
R&D Expense

$3.3M

Previous: $3.19M+3.4%
Stock-Based Comp

$1.68M

Previous: $1.18M+42.1%

Revenue & EPS history

Sera Prognostics · Revenue · Quarterly

$29K

Q3 2024-31%vs Q3 2023
Beat estimate in 3 of 15 quarters(20%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

The company is putting in place the key prerequisites for commercial success in anticipation of PRIME study results achieving publication and further illustrating the benefits of PreTRM capabilities and test-and-treat strategy.

Tailwinds

  • Publication of PRIME study results.
  • Expanded awareness and care guidelines.
  • Multi-pronged approach to the maternal care market.
  • Sales inflection in the business.
  • More profitable margin and revenue growth.

Headwinds

  • Net losses
  • Need to raise more capital
  • Revenues from the PreTRM Test representing substantially all Company revenues to date
  • Need for broad scientific and market acceptance of the PreTRM Test
  • Potential third-party payer coverage and reimbursement

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2024

Historical avgQ3 2024

-1.9%

Avg return

Earnings day

-3.5%

Avg return

5 days after

-3.3%

Avg return

30 days after

36%

8 / 22 earnings

Positive

+14.3%

Q3 2022

Best reaction

-11.7%

Q1 2025

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-3.7%-8.0%+18.1%
Q4 2025-7.7%+6.3%+20.4%
Q3 2025+1.7%+8.5%+19.0%
Q1 2025-11.7%-2.1%-35.4%
Q4 2024-5.1%-2.2%-17.9%
Q3 2024-0.3%-2.7%-3.9%
Q2 2024+0.0%-1.2%-2.2%
Q1 2024+3.3%-4.0%-13.6%
Q4 2023+3.4%+1.1%+7.7%
Q3 2023-3.2%-6.4%+130.9%
Q2 2023+0.8%-10.1%-39.9%
Q1 2023-0.8%-2.8%-13.0%
Q4 2022-10.0%-9.5%-22.3%
Q3 2022+14.3%+11.1%-4.0%
Q2 2022-4.1%-6.3%-27.3%
Q1 2022-7.6%-17.1%-32.7%
Q4 2021+3.6%+0.3%-39.3%
Q3 2021+0.3%-0.8%-8.2%
Q3 2020+0.3%-0.8%-8.2%
Q2 2021-4.8%-9.9%+0.0%
Q1 2021-4.8%-9.9%+0.0%
Q4 2020-4.8%-9.9%+0.0%
Q2 2020
Q1 2020

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