NASDAQ$JBLU

JetBlue Airways Corp · Q1 2021 earnings

Q1 2021 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported a GAAP loss per share of ($0.78). Revenue declined 61% year over two as a result of the impact of COVID-19.

JetBlue reported a GAAP loss per share of ($0.78) for Q1 2021, with revenue declining 61% compared to 2019 due to the impact of COVID-19. However, the decline was on the lower end of prior expectations, driven by sustained momentum in leisure travel bookings. The company reduced capacity by 41% and operating expenses by 43% year over two.

  • GAAP loss per share of ($0.78) in the first quarter of 2021, versus diluted earnings per share of $0.14 in the first quarter of 2019.
  • First quarter 2021 revenue declined 61% year over two as a result of the impact of COVID-19.
  • Reduced first quarter 2021 capacity by 41% year over two.
  • Adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter of 2021 was ($458) million.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$733M

Previous: $1.59B-53.8%
EPS (adj)

-$1.48

Previous: -$0.42-252.4%
Load Factor

63.9%

Previous: 69.8%-8.5%
Average Fuel Cost per Gallon

$1.72

Previous: $1.86-7.5%
Free Cash Flow

-$247M

Previous: -$268M+7.8%
Net Income

-$247M

Previous: -$268M+7.8%
Operating Income

-$294M

Previous: -$334M+12.0%
Gross Profit

-$333M

Previous: -$498M+33.1%
Cash & Equivalents

$2.36B

Previous: $1.62B+45.7%
Total Assets

$13.7B

Previous: $12.3B+10.7%
Stock-Based Comp

$8M

Previous: $9M-11.1%

Revenue & EPS history

JetBlue · Revenue · Quarterly

$733M

Q1 2021-53.8%vs Q1 2020
Beat estimate in 14 of 16 quarters(88%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

JetBlue · $733M total across 2 segments · Q1 2021

  • Passenger
    $670M-55.7%
  • Other
    $63M-18.2%

Forward guidance

For the second quarter of 2021, JetBlue expects revenue to decline between 30% and 35% year over two and capacity to decline approximately 15% year over two. They estimate EBITDA will range between ($100) and ($200) million and believe they will reach breakeven on an EBITDA basis in the third quarter.

Tailwinds

  • Largest sequential improvement in our revenue since the start of the pandemic.
  • Expect unit revenue to significantly improve, driven by both increasing load factors and improving yields.
  • Estimate EBITDA will range between ($100) and ($200) million
  • Believe we will reach breakeven in the third quarter
  • Expect to remain in positive territory through the end of the year.

Headwinds

  • Cost pressures from fuel prices
  • Cost pressures from airport rents
  • Cost pressures from landing fees.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2021

Historical avgQ1 2021

-2.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

-2.7%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.8%

Avg return

30 days after

40%

27 / 68 earnings

Positive

+13.3%

Q1 2020

Best reaction

-25.7%

Q4 2024

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+1.8%-1.6%+8.7%
Q4 2025-6.1%-4.1%+14.2%
Q3 2025-12.3%-11.0%-4.2%
Q1 2025+2.7%+17.0%+24.3%
Q4 2024-25.7%-18.7%-19.7%
Q3 2024-23.1%-21.2%-18.6%
Q2 2024+8.1%-6.2%-15.9%
Q1 2024-21.3%-23.0%-25.4%
Q4 2023-3.5%+4.4%+17.8%
Q3 2023-12.1%+4.5%+5.2%
Q2 2023-11.2%-14.0%-23.8%
Q1 2023+0.9%+4.7%+0.1%
Q4 2022-5.2%-4.9%-3.1%
Q3 2022-1.1%+2.9%+5.2%
Q2 2022+0.0%+1.0%-10.4%
Q1 2022-14.0%-15.7%-18.8%
Q4 2021+2.9%+10.1%+14.9%
Q3 2021-4.4%-4.8%-1.9%
Q2 2021-4.7%-8.0%-5.6%
Q1 2021-2.7%-1.0%-0.1%
Q4 2020-2.3%-1.7%+25.5%
Q3 2020-11.5%-4.7%+26.0%
Q2 2020-2.7%+1.1%+13.4%
Q1 2020+13.3%+0.5%+70.7%
Q4 2019+4.3%+2.4%+4.1%
Q3 2019+7.8%+7.1%+6.3%
Q2 2019+3.2%+2.2%-5.0%
Q1 2019+8.1%+7.7%+4.5%
Q4 2018+2.7%+5.1%-0.1%
Q3 2018-4.5%-1.8%+8.9%
Q2 2018-13.1%-8.9%-4.6%
Q1 2018-3.7%-3.2%-4.4%
Q4 2017-7.0%-6.3%-3.3%
Q3 2017-0.8%-2.5%+0.1%
Q2 2017-3.0%-3.1%-15.0%
Q1 2017+2.3%+0.4%+4.9%
Q4 2016-9.7%-9.9%-10.1%
Q3 2016-6.4%-7.9%+11.9%
Q2 2016+7.4%+6.1%-7.3%
Q1 2016+1.1%
Q4 2015+0.3%
Q3 2015-6.0%
Q2 2015+2.6%
Q1 2015+5.2%
Q4 2014+6.5%
Q3 2014-2.0%
Q2 2014+1.2%
Q1 2014-7.8%
Q4 2013+2.8%
Q3 2013-4.2%
Q2 2013-1.7%
Q1 2013-3.6%
Q4 2012+1.0%
Q3 2012+0.4%
Q2 2012-1.3%
Q1 2012-0.2%
Q4 2008-1.2%
Q4 2011-1.2%
Q3 2011+3.5%
Q2 2011-3.4%
Q1 2011+1.7%
Q4 2010+0.9%
Q3 2010+1.0%
Q3 2009+1.0%
Q4 2009-1.9%
Q2 2009-1.9%
Q2 2010-1.9%
Q1 2010-0.9%

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