NASDAQ$FWRG

First Watch Restaurant Group Inc · Q4 2023 earnings

Q4 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported strong financial results with revenue increase and positive same-restaurant sales growth.

First Watch Restaurant Group reported a strong Q4 2023 with a 31.7% increase in total revenues to $244.6 million and a 5.0% increase in same-restaurant sales growth. Net income was $2.6 million, a significant improvement compared to the net loss of $(0.5) million in Q4 2022. The company opened 19 system-wide restaurants during the quarter.

  • Total revenues increased by 31.7% to $244.6 million.
  • System-wide sales increased by 26.6% to $296.5 million.
  • Same-restaurant sales growth was 5.0%.
  • Net income reached $2.6 million, compared to a net loss of $(0.5) million in the previous year.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$245M

Previous: $186M+31.7%
EPS (adj)

$0.04

Previous: -$0.01+500.0%
Same-Restaurant Sales Growth

5.0%

Previous: 7.7%-35.1%
Same-Restaurant Traffic Growth

-1.3%

Previous: -0.6%-116.7%
Restaurant Level Operating Profit Margin

19.4%

Previous: 16.7%+16.2%
Adjusted EBITDA

$24.6M

No prior period
System-wide Restaurants

522

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$31.8M

Previous: $17.2M-284.7%
Net Income

$2.6M

Previous: -$500K+620.0%
Operating Income

$6.9M

Previous: $1.5M+360.0%
Gross Profit

$50.4M

Previous: $33.1M+52.4%
Stock-Based Comp

$2.22M

Previous: $2.55M-13.1%

Revenue & EPS history

First Watch · Revenue · Quarterly

$245M

Q4 2023+31.7%vs Q4 2022
Beat estimate in 9 of 15 quarters(60%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

First Watch · $211M total across 2 segments · Q1 2023

  • Restaurant Sales
    $208M+21.9%
  • Franchise Revenues
    $3.44M+40.7%

Forward guidance

The Company provides the following outlook for the 52-week fiscal year ended December 29, 2024:

Tailwinds

  • Same-restaurant sales growth of 1.0% to 3.0% with flat-to-negative same-restaurant traffic growth
  • Total revenue growth in the range of 18.0% to 20.0%
  • Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $106.0 million to $112.0 million
  • Total of 51 to 57 new system-wide restaurants, net of 1 company-owned restaurant closure (43 to 47 new company-owned restaurants and 9 to 11 new franchise-owned restaurants)
  • The Company reiterates its long-term annual financial targets as follows: Percentage unit growth in the low double digits, Same-restaurant sales growth of ~3.5%, Restaurant sales growth in the mid-teens, Adjusted EBITDA percentage growth in the mid-teens

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2023

Historical avgQ4 2023

-0.9%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.6%

Avg return

5 days after

-0.9%

Avg return

30 days after

39%

9 / 23 earnings

Positive

+15.5%

Q3 2024

Best reaction

-17.6%

Q1 2025

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-0.1%-0.7%-16.0%
Q4 2025-10.7%-19.6%-29.6%
Q3 2025-3.9%-3.0%-1.3%
Q1 2025-17.6%-15.3%-19.8%
Q4 2024-7.0%-8.9%-3.6%
Q3 2024+15.5%+7.1%+5.9%
Q2 2024+10.8%+13.7%+11.0%
Q1 2024-13.1%-16.7%-24.9%
Q4 2023-3.8%-1.8%-10.0%
Q3 2023-0.3%+1.2%+12.1%
Q2 2023+2.8%+3.3%+2.6%
Q1 2023+2.3%+1.3%+6.8%
Q4 2022-3.3%-5.2%-6.0%
Q3 2022-11.4%-3.9%-12.4%
Q2 2022-0.2%+1.9%+2.7%
Q2 2021-0.2%+1.9%+2.7%
Q1 2021+8.9%+19.6%+32.5%
Q1 2022+8.9%+19.6%+32.5%
Q4 2021-1.7%-3.3%-6.0%
Q4 2019-1.7%-3.3%-6.0%
Q3 2021+1.8%-0.3%+2.0%
Q4 2020+1.8%-0.3%+2.0%
Q3 2020+1.8%-0.3%+2.0%
Q2 2020
Q1 2020

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