NASDAQ$FWRG

First Watch Restaurant Group Inc · Q3 2021 earnings

Q3 2021 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported strong financial results driven by robust same-restaurant sales and traffic growth.

First Watch Restaurant Group reported a significant increase in total revenues, same-restaurant sales growth, and restaurant level operating profit margin for the third quarter ended September 26, 2021. The company's net income and Adjusted EBITDA also showed substantial improvement compared to the same period in 2020.

  • Total revenues increased by 57.8% to $157.4 million.
  • Same-restaurant sales grew by 46.2% with traffic growth of 40.1%.
  • Restaurant level operating profit margin increased to 19.5%.
  • Net income was $0.8 million, or $0.02 per diluted share, compared to a net loss of $11.1 million, or $(0.25) per diluted share in 2020.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$157M

Previous: $233M-32.4%
EPS (adj)

$0.02

Previous: -$0.95+102.1%
Same-Restaurant Sales Growth

46.2%

Previous: 0.0%
Same-Restaurant Traffic Growth

40.1%

Previous: 0.0%
Restaurant Level Operating Profit Margin

19.5%

Previous: 9.9%+97.0%
Adjusted EBITDA

$17M

Previous: $2.6M+553.8%
System-wide Restaurants

428

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$27.1M

Previous: $22.2M-222.0%
Free Cash Flow

-$26.3M

Previous: -$42.6M+38.3%
Net Income

$783K

Previous: -$42.6M+101.8%
Operating Income

$7.15M

Previous: -$42.5M+116.8%
Gross Profit

-$125M

Previous: $233M-153.6%
Cash & Equivalents

$51.9M

Previous: $42.6M+21.8%
Total Assets

$1.04B

No prior period
Stock-Based Comp

$430K

Previous: $571K-24.7%

Revenue & EPS history

First Watch · Revenue · Quarterly

$157M

Q3 2021-32.4%vs Q3 2020
Beat estimate in 5 of 9 quarters(56%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

First Watch · $211M total across 2 segments · Q1 2023

  • Restaurant Sales
    $208M+21.9%
  • Franchise Revenues
    $3.44M+40.7%

Forward guidance

The Company expects the following for the fourth quarter of fiscal year ending December 26, 2021:

Tailwinds

  • Same-restaurant sales growth in the range of 31.5% to 33.5%
  • Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $10.2 million to $11.2 million
  • New restaurant openings to include 7 company-owned restaurants and 2 franchise-owned restaurants
  • Unit growth in the low double digits
  • Restaurant sales growth in the mid-teens

Headwinds

  • Associated with the debt refinancing on October 6, 2021, we will recognize a non-cash charge of $2.4 million on the existing debt
  • We have not reconciled guidance for Adjusted EBITDA to the corresponding GAAP financial measure because we do not provide guidance for the various reconciling items.
  • We are unable to provide guidance for these reconciling items because we cannot determine their probable significance, as certain items are outside of our control and cannot be reasonably predicted due to the fact that these items could vary significantly from period to period.
  • Accordingly, reconciliations to the corresponding GAAP financial measure is not available without unreasonable effort.
  • Potential negative impacts on sales at our and our franchisees’ restaurants as a result of our opening new restaurants

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports

Historical avg

-0.9%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.6%

Avg return

5 days after

-0.9%

Avg return

30 days after

39%

9 / 23 earnings

Positive

+15.5%

Q3 2024

Best reaction

-17.6%

Q1 2025

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-0.1%-0.7%-16.0%
Q4 2025-10.7%-19.6%-29.6%
Q3 2025-3.9%-3.0%-1.3%
Q1 2025-17.6%-15.3%-19.8%
Q4 2024-7.0%-8.9%-3.6%
Q3 2024+15.5%+7.1%+5.9%
Q2 2024+10.8%+13.7%+11.0%
Q1 2024-13.1%-16.7%-24.9%
Q4 2023-3.8%-1.8%-10.0%
Q3 2023-0.3%+1.2%+12.1%
Q2 2023+2.8%+3.3%+2.6%
Q1 2023+2.3%+1.3%+6.8%
Q4 2022-3.3%-5.2%-6.0%
Q3 2022-11.4%-3.9%-12.4%
Q2 2022-0.2%+1.9%+2.7%
Q2 2021-0.2%+1.9%+2.7%
Q1 2021+8.9%+19.6%+32.5%
Q1 2022+8.9%+19.6%+32.5%
Q4 2021-1.7%-3.3%-6.0%
Q4 2019-1.7%-3.3%-6.0%
Q3 2021+1.8%-0.3%+2.0%
Q4 2020+1.8%-0.3%+2.0%
Q3 2020+1.8%-0.3%+2.0%
Q2 2020
Q1 2020

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