NASDAQ$AXON

Axon Enterprise Inc · Q4 2022 earnings

Q4 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Axon closed 2022 with strong demand and GAAP profitability.

Axon's Q4 2022 revenue grew above 50%, supported by financial discipline and fourth consecutive quarter of GAAP profitability. The company launched its moonshot goal and advanced its mission to protect life.

  • Axon delivered record revenue growth of 38% to $1.19 billion and net income of $147 million in 2022.
  • Axon Cloud software suite continues to be top growth-driver, with revenue up approximately 50% in 2022.
  • Full year operating cash flow of $235 million supported adjusted free cash flow generation of $195 million.
  • In Q4 2022, Axon successfully completed first-ever debt raise, with total net proceeds of approximately $603 million.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$336M

Previous: $218M+54.5%
EPS (adj)

$0.70

Previous: $0.46+52.2%
Annual Recurring Revenue

$473M

Previous: $327M+44.4%
Capital Expenditures

$11.6M

Previous: $13.4M-13.5%
Free Cash Flow

$119M

Previous: -$455K+26346.6%
Net Income

$29.2M

Previous: -$13.5M+316.0%
Operating Income

$22.5M

Previous: -$27.1M+183.3%
Gross Profit

$206M

Previous: $135M+52.3%
Cash & Equivalents

$354M

Previous: $356M-0.7%
Total Assets

$2.85B

Previous: $1.69B+68.9%
Stock-Based Comp

$31.7M

Previous: $41.1M-22.8%

Revenue & EPS history

Axon · Revenue · Quarterly

$336M

Q4 2022+54.5%vs Q4 2021
Beat estimate in 14 of 15 quarters(93%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Axon · $137M total across 1 segment · Q4 2022

  • TASER
    $137M+31.6%

Forward guidance

Axon expects to deliver revenue growth of approximately 20% in 2023, or revenue of at least $1.43 billion. We are targeting 2023 Adjusted EBITDA margin of 20%, which implies $286 million in Adjusted EBITDA.

Tailwinds

  • Revenue growth of approximately 20% in 2023
  • Revenue of at least $1.43 billion in 2023
  • Targeting 2023 Adjusted EBITDA margin of 20%
  • Implies $286 million in Adjusted EBITDA
  • Increasing focus on both gross margins and Adjusted EBITDA margins

Headwinds

  • Stock-based compensation expense to be approximately $140 million for the full year
  • 2023 CapEx to be in the range of $50 million to $65 million
  • Investments in TASER 10 automation and capacity expansion
  • Global facility build-out and upgrades
  • Inherent difficulty of forecasting certain types of expenses and gains

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2022

Historical avgQ4 2022

+3.4%

Avg return

Earnings day

+6.6%

Avg return

5 days after

+6.7%

Avg return

30 days after

55%

35 / 64 earnings

Positive

+31.3%

Q3 2024

Best reaction

-17.1%

Q4 2012

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+1.4%+3.1%+27.9%
Q4 2025+1.1%+29.3%-2.8%
Q3 2025+13.7%-17.2%-22.0%
Q1 2025+14.2%+20.4%+31.6%
Q4 2024+15.3%+5.9%+7.7%
Q3 2024+31.3%+29.5%+49.7%
Q2 2024+22.0%+27.6%+24.0%
Q1 2024-1.8%-4.7%-11.4%
Q4 2023+13.9%+15.7%+15.2%
Q3 2023+5.9%+0.5%+8.5%
Q2 2023+11.6%+17.6%+20.3%
Q1 2023-13.1%-9.2%-12.2%
Q4 2022+13.4%+13.3%+11.7%
Q3 2022+15.8%+23.2%+15.7%
Q2 2022+8.5%+11.4%+5.6%
Q1 2022-4.0%+11.8%+15.0%
Q4 2021+9.6%+16.1%+8.4%
Q3 2021+4.3%+6.8%-13.4%
Q2 2021+0.8%-3.8%-3.3%
Q1 2021-4.6%-6.6%-0.1%
Q4 2020+2.5%+2.9%-14.6%
Q3 2020+16.7%+13.3%+18.2%
Q2 2020-9.5%-14.5%-10.8%
Q1 2020+30.2%+26.2%+40.3%
Q4 2019-3.8%-2.9%-7.5%
Q3 2019+25.0%+22.5%+37.6%
Q2 2019-11.4%-10.3%-5.4%
Q1 2019-4.9%-1.0%+3.3%
Q4 2018-4.4%-6.2%-7.2%
Q3 2018-16.1%-13.6%-26.4%
Q2 2018-10.6%-8.1%+5.1%
Q1 2018+21.6%+27.4%+41.4%
Q4 2017+23.7%+37.6%+39.6%
Q3 2017-7.7%-8.9%+4.8%
Q2 2017-10.5%-13.1%-16.4%
Q1 2017+4.8%+3.8%-2.4%
Q4 2016-6.7%-12.5%-11.0%
Q3 2016+19.3%+22.3%+6.0%
Q2 2016+1.9%-0.1%-7.5%
Q1 2016+2.9%
Q4 2015+11.2%
Q3 2015-13.8%
Q2 2015-14.1%
Q1 2015+15.3%
Q4 2014-13.2%
Q3 2014+14.4%
Q2 2014+4.9%
Q1 2014-10.7%
Q4 2013+7.3%
Q3 2013+13.5%
Q2 2013-0.2%
Q1 2013+7.8%
Q4 2012-17.1%
Q3 2012-1.7%
Q2 2012-1.1%
Q1 2012+0.0%
Q4 2011-0.5%
Q3 2010-2.7%
Q3 2011-2.7%
Q2 2010-2.7%
Q2 2011-2.7%
Q1 2011+4.8%
Q4 2010-4.8%
Q1 2010+6.1%

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