NASDAQ$AXON

Axon Enterprise Inc · Q3 2020 earnings

Q3 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Axon's Q3 2020 earnings were marked by a 27% revenue increase, ARR exceeding $200 million, and a 56% surge in total bookings.

Axon reported a strong Q3 2020, with revenue growth of 27% year-over-year. Annual recurring revenue (ARR) topped $200 million, and total bookings increased by 56% year-over-year. The company is on track to exceed its original 2020 financial targets.

  • Revenue grew by 27% year over year.
  • ARR topped $200 million with 44% growth.
  • Total bookings increased by 56% year over year.
  • Federal bookings increased 400% year over year, driven by targeted investments in the US federal law enforcement channel.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$166M

Previous: $131M+27.2%
EPS (adj)

$0.40

Previous: $0.28+42.9%
Annual Recurring Revenue

$204M

Previous: $142M+44.0%
Capital Expenditures

-$66M

Previous: -$12.1M-445.1%
Free Cash Flow

-$66.9M

Previous: -$6.01M-1013.6%
Net Income

-$873K

Previous: $6.1M-114.3%
Operating Income

-$5.45M

Previous: $6.62M-182.4%
Gross Profit

$98.2M

Previous: $80.2M+22.5%
Cash & Equivalents

$176M

Previous: $203M-13.1%
Total Assets

$1.28B

Previous: $792M+61.4%
Stock-Based Comp

$26.1M

Previous: $13.7M+91.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Axon · Revenue · Quarterly

$166M

Q3 2020+27.2%vs Q3 2019
Beat estimate in 15 of 16 quarters(94%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Axon · $84.4M total across 1 segment · Q3 2020

  • TASER
    $84.4M+17.7%

Forward guidance

Axon provided revenue and Adjusted EBITDA guidance for Q4 2020 and initial revenue and Adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2021.

Tailwinds

  • Tracking to Q4 2020 revenue of $175 million to $185 million, implying full-year revenue of $630 million to $640 million.
  • Expect fourth quarter gross margins in line with the third quarter.
  • Expect to achieve Adjusted EBITDA in Q4 2020 of $30 million to $35 million, implying full-year Adjusted EBITDA of about $122 million to $127 million.
  • Initial view of the business in 2021 includes $720 million to $750 million in revenue.
  • Initial view of the business in 2021 includes $120 million to $130 million in Adjusted EBITDA.

Headwinds

  • The impact of COVID-19 remains fluid, which could bring renewed caution from police departments on budgeting.
  • Stock-based compensation expense to be at least $107 million for the full year.
  • Difficult to forecast future stock-based compensation expense.
  • Reductions in economic activity could bring renewed caution from police departments on budgeting.
  • Potential global impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2020

Historical avgQ3 2020

+3.4%

Avg return

Earnings day

+6.6%

Avg return

5 days after

+6.7%

Avg return

30 days after

55%

35 / 64 earnings

Positive

+31.3%

Q3 2024

Best reaction

-17.1%

Q4 2012

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+1.4%+3.1%+27.9%
Q4 2025+1.1%+29.3%-2.8%
Q3 2025+13.7%-17.2%-22.0%
Q1 2025+14.2%+20.4%+31.6%
Q4 2024+15.3%+5.9%+7.7%
Q3 2024+31.3%+29.5%+49.7%
Q2 2024+22.0%+27.6%+24.0%
Q1 2024-1.8%-4.7%-11.4%
Q4 2023+13.9%+15.7%+15.2%
Q3 2023+5.9%+0.5%+8.5%
Q2 2023+11.6%+17.6%+20.3%
Q1 2023-13.1%-9.2%-12.2%
Q4 2022+13.4%+13.3%+11.7%
Q3 2022+15.8%+23.2%+15.7%
Q2 2022+8.5%+11.4%+5.6%
Q1 2022-4.0%+11.8%+15.0%
Q4 2021+9.6%+16.1%+8.4%
Q3 2021+4.3%+6.8%-13.4%
Q2 2021+0.8%-3.8%-3.3%
Q1 2021-4.6%-6.6%-0.1%
Q4 2020+2.5%+2.9%-14.6%
Q3 2020+16.7%+13.3%+18.2%
Q2 2020-9.5%-14.5%-10.8%
Q1 2020+30.2%+26.2%+40.3%
Q4 2019-3.8%-2.9%-7.5%
Q3 2019+25.0%+22.5%+37.6%
Q2 2019-11.4%-10.3%-5.4%
Q1 2019-4.9%-1.0%+3.3%
Q4 2018-4.4%-6.2%-7.2%
Q3 2018-16.1%-13.6%-26.4%
Q2 2018-10.6%-8.1%+5.1%
Q1 2018+21.6%+27.4%+41.4%
Q4 2017+23.7%+37.6%+39.6%
Q3 2017-7.7%-8.9%+4.8%
Q2 2017-10.5%-13.1%-16.4%
Q1 2017+4.8%+3.8%-2.4%
Q4 2016-6.7%-12.5%-11.0%
Q3 2016+19.3%+22.3%+6.0%
Q2 2016+1.9%-0.1%-7.5%
Q1 2016+2.9%
Q4 2015+11.2%
Q3 2015-13.8%
Q2 2015-14.1%
Q1 2015+15.3%
Q4 2014-13.2%
Q3 2014+14.4%
Q2 2014+4.9%
Q1 2014-10.7%
Q4 2013+7.3%
Q3 2013+13.5%
Q2 2013-0.2%
Q1 2013+7.8%
Q4 2012-17.1%
Q3 2012-1.7%
Q2 2012-1.1%
Q1 2012+0.0%
Q4 2011-0.5%
Q3 2010-2.7%
Q3 2011-2.7%
Q2 2010-2.7%
Q2 2011-2.7%
Q1 2011+4.8%
Q4 2010-4.8%
Q1 2010+6.1%

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