NASDAQ$ALGN

Align Technology Inc · Q4 2019 earnings

Q4 2019 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Announced strong financial results with record revenues and volumes.

Align Technology reported a 21.7% increase in total revenues for Q4 2019, reaching $649.8 million. Clear aligner revenues increased by 22.0% to $543.6 million, and scanner and services revenues increased by 20.2% to $106.2 million. Invisalign case volume reached 413.7 thousand, up 23.9% year-over-year.

  • Total revenues were $649.8 million, up 21.7% year-over-year.
  • Clear aligner revenues were $543.6 million, up 22.0% year-over-year.
  • Scanner and services revenues were $106.2 million, up 20.2% year-over-year.
  • Invisalign volume was 413.7 thousand cases, up 23.9% year-over-year.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$650M

Previous: $534M+21.7%
EPS (adj)

$1.53

Previous: $1.20+27.5%
Clear Aligner Shipments

413.7K

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

$42.6M

Previous: $54.3M-21.6%
Free Cash Flow

$176M

Previous: $187M-6.1%
Net Income

$121M

Previous: $97.4M+24.5%
Operating Income

$151M

Previous: $120M+25.5%
Gross Profit

$472M

Previous: $383M+23.2%
Cash & Equivalents

$869M

Previous: $637M+36.4%
Total Assets

$2.5B

Previous: $2.05B+21.8%
Stock-Based Comp

$20.5M

Previous: $18.8M+8.8%

Revenue & EPS history

Align · Revenue · Quarterly

$650M

Q4 2019+21.7%vs Q4 2018
Beat estimate in 12 of 16 quarters(75%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Align · $650M total across 2 segments · Q4 2019

  • Clear Aligner
    $544M
  • Imaging Systems and CAD/CAM Services
    $106M

Forward guidance

For Q1 2020, Align expects a reduction in Invisalign case shipments and revenues due to the novel coronavirus outbreak in China.

Tailwinds

  • Strong growth in other regions.
  • Strong momentum in the Americas.
  • Strong momentum across EMEA.
  • Strong momentum in all other countries in APAC especially Japan.
  • Strong momentum in Australia/New Zealand, Southeast Asia, Taiwan and Korea.

Headwinds

  • Approximately 20,000 to 25,000 fewer Invisalign case shipments.
  • Approximately $30.0 million to $35.0 million less revenues for Invisalign and iTero products sold in China.
  • Absorbing $3.0 million to $4.0 million in idle China plant capacity costs.
  • Approximately a 0.5% gross margin impact.
  • Increased uncertainty and disruption to employees, customers/doctors’ practices, their patients and consumers in China.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2019

Historical avgQ4 2019

+2.5%

Avg return

Earnings day

+2.0%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.3%

Avg return

30 days after

66%

45 / 68 earnings

Positive

+35.5%

Q3 2020

Best reaction

-28.2%

Q3 2023

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-1.5%-5.4%-2.0%
Q4 2025+8.9%+21.7%+7.9%
Q3 2025+5.0%+2.9%+11.6%
Q1 2025+2.0%-0.1%+4.4%
Q4 2024+0.9%-2.7%-19.7%
Q3 2024+2.7%+2.4%+7.2%
Q2 2024-9.8%-10.6%-6.7%
Q1 2024-0.4%-2.3%-18.0%
Q4 2023+3.3%+4.1%+13.3%
Q3 2023-28.2%-29.7%-17.3%
Q2 2023+16.0%+13.8%+7.3%
Q1 2023-9.6%-9.7%-18.8%
Q4 2022+33.4%+27.0%+24.0%
Q3 2022-16.7%-10.9%-10.7%
Q2 2022+12.1%+12.3%+0.2%
Q1 2022-15.7%-14.5%-21.2%
Q4 2021-1.0%-1.6%-8.7%
Q3 2021+6.5%+11.5%+6.9%
Q2 2021+8.2%+11.9%+12.2%
Q1 2021-2.8%-3.5%-5.1%
Q4 2020+10.3%+8.0%-3.8%
Q3 2020+35.5%+35.8%+33.4%
Q2 2020-5.2%-2.1%-6.7%
Q1 2020+5.6%+3.3%+20.7%
Q4 2019-1.8%-5.5%-18.5%
Q3 2019+16.8%+17.2%+28.5%
Q2 2019-26.4%-28.2%-35.9%
Q1 2019+0.2%+7.2%+5.2%
Q4 2018+5.1%+10.2%+16.9%
Q3 2018-25.5%-30.1%-29.8%
Q2 2018-2.6%-6.4%-1.3%
Q1 2018+8.4%+4.3%+32.9%
Q4 2017-5.3%-7.0%-11.3%
Q3 2017+16.9%+18.5%+26.3%
Q2 2017+9.1%+6.8%+8.7%
Q1 2017+12.4%+12.0%+18.7%
Q4 2016+8.1%+6.5%+15.7%
Q3 2016+3.6%+6.8%+14.5%
Q2 2016+4.7%+6.1%+8.8%
Q1 2016-3.5%
Q4 2015+7.7%
Q3 2015+10.4%
Q2 2015-7.4%
Q1 2015+5.8%
Q4 2014-9.4%
Q3 2014+7.3%
Q2 2014+6.1%
Q1 2014-2.4%
Q4 2013+2.9%
Q3 2013+32.6%
Q2 2013+10.4%
Q1 2013+2.3%
Q4 2012+9.0%
Q3 2012-26.4%
Q2 2012+10.8%
Q1 2012+13.7%
Q4 2011-2.1%
Q3 2011+2.9%
Q2 2011-4.3%
Q1 2010-2.0%
Q1 2011+1.6%
Q4 2010+5.1%
Q4 2008+5.1%
Q3 2009+6.3%
Q3 2010+6.3%
Q4 2009+0.4%
Q2 2010+0.4%
Q2 2009+0.4%

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