NASDAQ$ADP

Automatic Data Processing Inc · Q4 2022 earnings

Q4 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

ADP's Q4 2022 results were reported, showing revenue growth and increased earnings per share.

ADP reported a strong fourth quarter with a 10% increase in revenues to $4.1 billion. Net earnings increased 16% to $625 million, and adjusted diluted EPS increased 25% to $1.50.

  • Revenues increased by 10% to $4.1 billion, with 12% growth on an organic constant currency basis.
  • Net earnings increased by 16% to $625 million.
  • Adjusted diluted EPS increased by 25% to $1.50.
  • Employer Services revenues increased 8% on a reported basis.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$4.13B

Previous: $3.74B+10.5%
EPS (adj)

$1.50

Previous: $1.20+25.0%
U.S. Pays Per Control

7.0%

Previous: 8.0%-12.5%
Average WSEs

704.0K

Previous: 616.0K+14.3%
Net Income

$625M

Previous: $538M+16.2%
Operating Income

$803M

Previous: $697M+15.2%
Gross Profit

$1.61B

Previous: $1.43B+13.1%
Cash & Equivalents

$1.44B

Previous: $2.58B-44.2%
Total Assets

$63.1B

Previous: $48.8B+29.3%
Stock-Based Comp

$55.5M

Previous: $48.9M+13.5%

Revenue & EPS history

ADP · Revenue · Quarterly

$4.13B

Q4 2022+10.5%vs Q4 2021
Beat estimate in 10 of 15 quarters(67%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

ADP · $4.13B total across 2 segments · Q4 2022

  • Employer Services
    $2.72B+7.7%
  • PEO Services
    $1.41B+16.2%

Forward guidance

ADP's fiscal 2023 outlook anticipates continued solid revenue and bookings growth, as well as healthy margin improvement from client funds interest growth and operating leverage from ongoing productivity gains.

Tailwinds

  • Revenue growth of 7% to 9%.
  • Adjusted EBIT margin expansion of 100 to 125 basis points.
  • Adjusted effective tax rate of approximately 23.0%.
  • Diluted EPS growth of 13% to 16%.
  • Adjusted diluted EPS growth of 13% to 16%.

Headwinds

  • Employer Services client revenue retention decrease of 25 to 50 basis points.
  • PEO Services margin to range from down 25 to up 25 basis points.
  • Outlook contemplates the impact of foreign currency in revenue and operating results.
  • Transformation initiatives - FY23
  • Increase in U.S. pays per control of 2% to 3%

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2022

Historical avgQ4 2022

-0.1%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.0%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.6%

Avg return

30 days after

50%

35 / 70 earnings

Positive

+10.8%

Q4 2017

Best reaction

-9.4%

Q2 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q3 2026+0.0%+6.1%+11.4%
Q2 2026-1.2%-6.2%-14.5%
Q1 2026-6.6%-8.0%-8.7%
Q3 2025+1.6%+2.8%+10.1%
Q2 2025+0.8%+3.0%+5.7%
Q1 2025+0.4%+0.7%+6.6%
Q4 2024+1.4%+0.2%+7.0%
Q3 2024+0.1%+0.4%+1.3%
Q2 2024+3.6%+4.1%+4.7%
Q1 2024-9.0%-10.1%-4.1%
Q4 2023+4.3%+2.8%+5.2%
Q3 2023+2.1%+4.5%+0.4%
Q2 2023-5.7%-7.0%-7.3%
Q1 2023-1.2%+1.7%+11.0%
Q4 2022+9.9%+10.7%+14.9%
Q3 2022+3.3%-1.3%+1.1%
Q2 2022-9.4%-4.9%-5.8%
Q1 2022+1.9%+1.5%+4.9%
Q4 2021+0.5%+0.8%+0.5%
Q3 2021-3.8%-2.3%+0.1%
Q2 2021+1.3%+1.1%+5.8%
Q1 2021+8.3%+10.6%+20.0%
Q4 2020-9.4%-8.3%-3.6%
Q3 2020+2.6%+1.0%+2.4%
Q2 2020-1.8%-2.4%-13.2%
Q1 2020-0.4%-0.6%+4.9%
Q4 2019-0.4%-3.2%+2.9%
Q3 2019-3.6%-2.5%-2.6%
Q2 2019+4.4%+7.2%+14.9%
Q1 2019+2.7%+3.0%+7.4%
Q4 2018-1.4%+0.4%+8.7%
Q3 2018+3.6%+5.7%+11.7%
Q2 2018-0.3%-5.6%-6.0%
Q1 2018-2.7%-2.3%-1.4%
Q4 2017+10.8%+10.2%-1.3%
Q3 2017-4.7%-7.0%-2.9%
Q2 2017-4.6%-4.5%+3.5%
Q1 2017+2.8%+4.2%+9.6%
Q4 2016-6.3%-7.3%-5.4%
Q3 2016-1.9%
Q2 2016+0.8%
Q1 2016-2.2%
Q4 2015-3.1%
Q3 2015+0.7%
Q2 2015+2.4%
Q1 2015+2.2%
Q4 2014-0.7%
Q3 2014+0.8%
Q2 2014-1.0%
Q1 2014-1.7%
Q4 2013-0.7%
Q3 2013+1.9%
Q2 2013+2.0%
Q1 2013-0.7%
Q4 2012-1.4%
Q3 2012-1.6%
Q2 2012-1.6%
Q1 2012-0.7%
Q4 2011-0.7%
Q3 2011+0.7%
Q3 2010+0.7%
Q2 2011+0.1%
Q1 2011-0.7%
Q4 2008-0.2%
Q4 2010-0.2%
Q2 2009+0.7%
Q2 2010+0.7%
Q1 2009+1.7%
Q1 2010+1.7%
Q4 2009+1.7%

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