NASDAQ$ADP

Automatic Data Processing Inc · Q4 2020 earnings

Q4 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

ADP's Q4 2020 financial results were announced, revealing a revenue decrease of 3% to $3.4 billion and a net earnings decrease of 13% to $412 million compared to the previous year's fourth quarter. Adjusted diluted EPS was flat at $1.14.

ADP reported a decrease in revenues by 3% to $3.4 billion for the fourth quarter, with net earnings down by 13% to $412 million. The company's adjusted diluted EPS remained flat at $1.14. Despite challenges from the COVID-19 pandemic, ADP is focusing on strategic investments and cost management.

  • Revenues decreased 3% to $3.4 billion; 2% organic constant currency.
  • Net earnings decreased 13% to $412 million.
  • Adjusted diluted EPS was flat at $1.14.
  • Employer Services revenues decreased 6% while PEO Services revenues increased 4%.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$3.38B

Previous: $3.5B-3.5%
EPS (adj)

$1.14

Previous: $1.14+0.0%
U.S. Pays Per Control

-10.8%

Previous: 2.8%-485.7%
Average WSEs

548.0K

Previous: 563.0K-2.7%
Net Income

$412M

Previous: $476M-13.5%
Operating Income

$531M

No prior period
Gross Profit

$1.19B

Previous: $1.33B-10.3%
Cash & Equivalents

$1.91B

Previous: $1.95B-2.1%
Total Assets

$39.2B

Previous: $41.9B-6.5%
Stock-Based Comp

$24.1M

Previous: $45.1M-46.6%

Revenue & EPS history

ADP · Revenue · Quarterly

$3.38B

Q4 2020-3.5%vs Q4 2019
Beat estimate in 15 of 16 quarters(94%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

ADP · $3.38B total across 2 segments · Q4 2020

  • Employer Services
    $2.3B-5.7%
  • PEO Services
    $1.08B+3.8%

Forward guidance

ADP anticipates a revenue decline of 1% to 4% and an adjusted diluted EPS decline of 13% to 18% for fiscal year 2021, as the global economy continues to manage through the effects of COVID-19.

Tailwinds

  • Employer Services New Business Bookings growth of flat to up 10%.
  • Adjusted effective tax rate of 23.1%.
  • PEO Services revenue decline of 2% to growth of 2%.
  • Strategic investment in product and distribution to drive sustainable long-term growth.
  • Client Funds Interest Revenue $390 - $400M

Headwinds

  • Revenue decline of 1% to 4%.
  • Adjusted EBIT margin down about 300 basis points.
  • Diluted EPS decline of 12% to 17%.
  • Employer Services revenue decline of 3% to 5%.
  • Employer Services client revenue retention down 50 to 100 basis points.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2020

Historical avgQ4 2020

-0.1%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.0%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.6%

Avg return

30 days after

50%

35 / 70 earnings

Positive

+10.8%

Q4 2017

Best reaction

-9.4%

Q2 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q3 2026+0.0%+6.1%+11.4%
Q2 2026-1.2%-6.2%-14.5%
Q1 2026-6.6%-8.0%-8.7%
Q3 2025+1.6%+2.8%+10.1%
Q2 2025+0.8%+3.0%+5.7%
Q1 2025+0.4%+0.7%+6.6%
Q4 2024+1.4%+0.2%+7.0%
Q3 2024+0.1%+0.4%+1.3%
Q2 2024+3.6%+4.1%+4.7%
Q1 2024-9.0%-10.1%-4.1%
Q4 2023+4.3%+2.8%+5.2%
Q3 2023+2.1%+4.5%+0.4%
Q2 2023-5.7%-7.0%-7.3%
Q1 2023-1.2%+1.7%+11.0%
Q4 2022+9.9%+10.7%+14.9%
Q3 2022+3.3%-1.3%+1.1%
Q2 2022-9.4%-4.9%-5.8%
Q1 2022+1.9%+1.5%+4.9%
Q4 2021+0.5%+0.8%+0.5%
Q3 2021-3.8%-2.3%+0.1%
Q2 2021+1.3%+1.1%+5.8%
Q1 2021+8.3%+10.6%+20.0%
Q4 2020-9.4%-8.3%-3.6%
Q3 2020+2.6%+1.0%+2.4%
Q2 2020-1.8%-2.4%-13.2%
Q1 2020-0.4%-0.6%+4.9%
Q4 2019-0.4%-3.2%+2.9%
Q3 2019-3.6%-2.5%-2.6%
Q2 2019+4.4%+7.2%+14.9%
Q1 2019+2.7%+3.0%+7.4%
Q4 2018-1.4%+0.4%+8.7%
Q3 2018+3.6%+5.7%+11.7%
Q2 2018-0.3%-5.6%-6.0%
Q1 2018-2.7%-2.3%-1.4%
Q4 2017+10.8%+10.2%-1.3%
Q3 2017-4.7%-7.0%-2.9%
Q2 2017-4.6%-4.5%+3.5%
Q1 2017+2.8%+4.2%+9.6%
Q4 2016-6.3%-7.3%-5.4%
Q3 2016-1.9%
Q2 2016+0.8%
Q1 2016-2.2%
Q4 2015-3.1%
Q3 2015+0.7%
Q2 2015+2.4%
Q1 2015+2.2%
Q4 2014-0.7%
Q3 2014+0.8%
Q2 2014-1.0%
Q1 2014-1.7%
Q4 2013-0.7%
Q3 2013+1.9%
Q2 2013+2.0%
Q1 2013-0.7%
Q4 2012-1.4%
Q3 2012-1.6%
Q2 2012-1.6%
Q1 2012-0.7%
Q4 2011-0.7%
Q3 2011+0.7%
Q3 2010+0.7%
Q2 2011+0.1%
Q1 2011-0.7%
Q4 2008-0.2%
Q4 2010-0.2%
Q2 2009+0.7%
Q2 2010+0.7%
Q1 2009+1.7%
Q1 2010+1.7%
Q4 2009+1.7%

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