NYSE$RYZ

Ryerson Holding Corporation · Q4 2020 earnings

Q4 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Ryerson reported results with revenue increase and adjusted loss per share.

Ryerson reported a revenue increase of 2.6% sequentially, driven by robust metals pricing and recovering demand. However, the company experienced a net loss of $16.7 million, or $0.44 per diluted share, and an adjusted net loss of $6.6 million, or $0.17 per diluted share.

  • Successfully executed pandemic response plan.
  • Redeemed $50 million in Senior Secured Notes, reducing net debt to $679 million.
  • Gross margin excl. LIFO expanded to 19.3%, up 260 bps quarter-over-quarter.
  • Cash conversion cycle decreased to 62 days.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$853M

Previous: $962M-11.3%
EPS (adj)

-$0.17

Previous: $0.30-156.7%
Tons shipped

492.0K

Previous: 541.0K-9.1%
Average selling price/ton

$1.73K

Previous: $1.78K-2.4%
Gross margin, excl. LIFO

19.3%

Previous: 18.1%+6.6%
Capital Expenditures

$8.1M

Previous: $13.3M-39.1%
Free Cash Flow

-$26.9M

Previous: $111M-124.3%
Net Income

-$16.7M

Previous: $26.4M-163.3%
Operating Income

$4.8M

Previous: $57.4M-91.6%
Gross Profit

$154M

Previous: $180M-14.7%
Cash & Equivalents

$61.4M

Previous: $11M+458.2%
Total Assets

$1.8B

Previous: $2.02B-10.9%
Stock-Based Comp

$500K

Previous: $700K-28.6%

Revenue & EPS history

Ryerson · Revenue · Quarterly

$853M

Q4 2020-11.3%vs Q4 2019
Beat estimate in 10 of 16 quarters(63%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Ryerson · $839M total across 3 segments · Q4 2020

  • Carbon Steel
    $429M-12.8%
  • Stainless Steel
    $216M-10.7%
  • Aluminum
    $194M-8.9%

Forward guidance

Ryerson anticipates first quarter 2021 revenues of $1.08 billion to $1.10 billion driven by sequential average selling prices growth of 13 to 15 percent and shipment growth of 11 to 13 percent. LIFO expense in the first quarter is expected to be in the range of $49 to $53 million as replacement costs continue to increase relative to average inventory costs. Given these expectations, Adjusted EBITDA, excluding LIFO is expected to be in the range of $102 to $106 million and earnings per diluted share are expected to be in the range of $0.81 to $0.92.

Tailwinds

  • Improving demand amidst recovery expectations
  • Intensifying tightness in the supply environment
  • Notable price appreciation across all three of Ryerson’s primary commodity bellwethers
  • First quarter 2021 revenues of $1.08 billion to $1.10 billion
  • Sequential average selling prices growth of 13 to 15 percent

Headwinds

  • Pandemic driven uncertainties persist
  • LIFO expense in the first quarter is expected to be in the range of $49 to $53 million
  • Replacement costs continue to increase relative to average inventory costs
  • Adjustments of (21) to (19)
  • Net income attributable to Ryerson Holding Corporation $31 to $35

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2020

Historical avgQ4 2020

-1.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

-3.0%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.3%

Avg return

30 days after

40%

19 / 47 earnings

Positive

+35.2%

Q1 2015

Best reaction

-26.6%

Q3 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+3.5%-15.3%-4.0%
Q4 2025+17.5%-6.7%-20.7%
Q3 2025-6.6%-11.2%-2.8%
Q1 2025-14.8%-9.6%-11.2%
Q4 2024+5.9%+12.7%-0.3%
Q3 2024-2.7%-5.0%+12.7%
Q2 2024-5.9%-19.4%-21.2%
Q1 2024-19.4%-25.7%-24.8%
Q4 2023-6.2%+1.4%+11.0%
Q3 2023+6.6%+6.3%+11.9%
Q2 2023-15.0%-28.1%-27.4%
Q1 2023+1.9%-8.7%-10.0%
Q4 2022-3.9%-8.5%-10.9%
Q3 2022-26.6%-21.4%-8.7%
Q2 2022-1.2%-1.8%+5.6%
Q1 2022-11.6%-14.7%-19.4%
Q4 2021-8.1%+7.5%+57.8%
Q3 2021+1.8%+9.6%-9.8%
Q2 2021+18.6%+24.9%+55.6%
Q1 2021+3.9%+2.3%+0.8%
Q4 2020-15.0%-11.7%+13.0%
Q3 2020+12.1%+13.9%+56.8%
Q2 2020+2.4%-1.4%-2.6%
Q1 2020+2.5%+1.8%+45.8%
Q4 2019+7.9%-6.8%-50.3%
Q3 2019-3.8%+1.6%+20.1%
Q2 2019-7.4%-9.7%-8.3%
Q1 2019+13.3%+25.0%-10.8%
Q4 2018-7.0%+1.7%+12.7%
Q3 2018-6.4%+1.1%-10.8%
Q2 2018-6.9%+0.0%-10.0%
Q1 2018+11.7%+17.9%+29.6%
Q4 2017-8.8%-3.4%-18.6%
Q3 2017-0.6%-0.6%+2.8%
Q2 2017-0.6%-4.1%+0.6%
Q1 2017-20.9%-25.5%-34.2%
Q4 2016+8.9%+24.1%+31.9%
Q3 2016-14.9%-9.5%+46.8%
Q2 2016-10.7%-20.2%-10.8%
Q1 2016+8.4%
Q4 2015-5.5%
Q3 2015-5.4%
Q2 2015+12.6%
Q1 2015+35.2%
Q4 2014+3.0%
Q3 2014-16.9%
Q4 2013-0.4%
Q1 2014
Q3 2013
Q2 2013
Q1 2013
Q4 2012
Q3 2012
Q2 2012
Q1 2012
Q4 2011
Q3 2011
Q2 2011
Q1 2011
Q4 2010
Q3 2010
Q2 2010
Q1 2010

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