NYSE$MWA

Mueller Water Products Inc · Q4 2022 earnings

Q4 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Mueller Water Products reported mixed results in Q4 2022, with sales growth offset by manufacturing inefficiencies and higher costs.

Mueller Water Products reported a 12.1% increase in net sales to $331.4 million for Q4 2022, driven by higher pricing. However, operating income decreased to $11.6 million due to higher costs and manufacturing inefficiencies. Net income was $7.1 million, or $0.05 per diluted share, while adjusted net income was $15.6 million, or $0.10 per diluted share. The company anticipates continued net sales growth and double-digit adjusted EBITDA growth in fiscal 2023.

  • Net sales increased by 12.1% to $331.4 million due to higher pricing.
  • Operating income decreased to $11.6 million due to higher costs and manufacturing inefficiencies.
  • Net income was $7.1 million, or $0.05 per diluted share.
  • Adjusted EBITDA decreased to $38.6 million, with a margin of 11.6%.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$331M

Previous: $296M+12.1%
EPS (adj)

$0.10

Previous: $0.12-16.7%
Adjusted EBITDA

$38.6M

No prior period
Adjusted EBITDA Margin

11.6%

Previous: 15.4%-24.7%
Free Cash Flow

-$2.4M

Previous: $94M-102.6%
Net Income

$7.1M

Previous: $18.4M-61.4%
Operating Income

$11.6M

Previous: $27.8M-58.3%
Gross Profit

$85.6M

Previous: $86.3M-0.8%
Cash & Equivalents

$147M

Previous: $228M-35.6%
Total Assets

$1.5B

Previous: $1.52B-1.3%
Stock-Based Comp

$2.1M

Previous: $1.8M+16.7%

Revenue & EPS history

Mueller · Revenue · Quarterly

$331M

Q4 2022+12.1%vs Q4 2021
Beat estimate in 12 of 15 quarters(80%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Mueller · $331M total across 2 segments · Q4 2022

  • Water Flow Solutions
    $179M
  • Water Management Solutions
    $152M

Forward guidance

The Company currently anticipates that consolidated net sales will increase between 6 percent and 8 percent as compared with the prior year. As a result of higher sales and improved execution, the Company expects that adjusted EBITDA will increase between 10 percent and 14 percent as compared with adjusted EBITDA of $194.5 million for 2022.

Tailwinds

  • Record backlog at the end of 2022
  • Anticipated benefits from higher pricing
  • Current end market expectations
  • Higher sales
  • Improved execution

Headwinds

  • Higher pension expense in 2023 of approximately $3.8 million compared with a benefit of $3.9 million in the prior year primarily due to the stock market’s performance.
  • Challenges associated with higher inflation
  • Labor availability
  • Supply chain disruptions will continue in 2023.
  • Total SG&A expenses between $255 million and $265 million

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2022

Historical avgQ4 2022

+1.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.5%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.8%

Avg return

30 days after

63%

41 / 65 earnings

Positive

+16.7%

Q1 2025

Best reaction

-12.8%

Q1 2015

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q2 2026+1.8%-6.4%-8.1%
Q1 2026+1.5%+7.0%+1.5%
Q4 2025-4.4%-5.9%-1.8%
Q2 2025-6.3%-9.4%-9.9%
Q1 2025+16.7%+16.6%+8.5%
Q4 2024+6.2%+14.5%+11.5%
Q3 2024+2.2%+1.1%+2.8%
Q2 2024+11.0%+18.7%+9.5%
Q1 2024+10.8%+10.4%+14.5%
Q4 2023+7.4%+3.5%+0.9%
Q3 2023-10.8%-13.3%-11.0%
Q2 2023-6.4%-9.2%+3.5%
Q1 2023+7.5%+6.8%+8.2%
Q4 2022-1.7%-2.6%-0.3%
Q3 2022-9.3%-10.4%-15.6%
Q2 2022-3.0%+0.1%-0.2%
Q1 2022+0.4%+4.2%-2.3%
Q4 2021-8.5%-13.0%-15.3%
Q3 2021+2.7%+1.1%+7.4%
Q2 2021+1.9%+3.6%+0.5%
Q1 2021+2.4%+6.1%+8.6%
Q4 2020+7.7%+7.3%+13.4%
Q3 2020+6.9%+8.8%+5.0%
Q2 2020-4.6%-4.5%+3.7%
Q1 2020+3.5%+1.2%-4.6%
Q4 2019-5.1%-7.4%-2.1%
Q3 2019+3.8%+0.4%+2.0%
Q2 2019-12.8%-15.2%-12.0%
Q1 2019+6.5%+3.6%+3.9%
Q4 2018+7.3%+6.2%-4.4%
Q3 2018-5.4%-5.7%-7.5%
Q2 2018+15.4%+20.7%+23.7%
Q1 2018-2.4%-4.6%-5.5%
Q4 2017+3.7%+2.3%+3.4%
Q3 2017+6.7%+4.6%+5.0%
Q2 2017-11.9%-12.2%-12.6%
Q1 2017+0.3%-6.6%-9.2%
Q4 2016-11.8%-9.0%+9.9%
Q3 2016+4.9%+7.9%+7.7%
Q2 2016+6.1%
Q1 2016+5.9%
Q4 2015-2.1%
Q3 2015+5.8%
Q2 2015-5.5%
Q1 2015-12.8%
Q4 2014+9.7%
Q3 2014+14.8%
Q2 2014-3.0%
Q1 2014+10.0%
Q4 2013+4.4%
Q3 2013+6.2%
Q2 2013+11.4%
Q1 2013-1.3%
Q4 2012+9.7%
Q3 2012+3.1%
Q2 2012+3.1%
Q1 2012-1.4%
Q4 2009+10.3%
Q3 2010+2.9%
Q3 2011+2.9%
Q2 2011+1.7%
Q2 2010+1.7%
Q1 2011-1.5%
Q1 2010-1.5%
Q4 2010-1.5%

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