NYSE$MWA

Mueller Water Products Inc · Q1 2023 earnings

Q1 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Increased net sales and net income per diluted share, while achieving adjusted net income per diluted share.

Mueller Water Products reported a 15.6% increase in net sales to $314.8 million for the first quarter of 2023. Net income per diluted share grew to $0.14, with adjusted net income per diluted share at $0.13. The company remains optimistic about achieving operational improvements to increase margins in the second half of the year.

  • Net sales increased by 15.6% to $314.8 million compared to the prior year quarter.
  • Operating income rose to $34.0 million, while adjusted operating income was $30.3 million.
  • Net income reached $22.5 million, and adjusted net income was $19.7 million.
  • Net income per diluted share increased to $0.14, with adjusted net income per diluted share at $0.13.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$315M

Previous: $272M+15.6%
EPS (adj)

$0.13

Previous: $0.13+0.0%
Adjusted EBITDA

$44.2M

Previous: $47.5M-6.9%
Adjusted EBITDA Margin

14.0%

Previous: 17.4%-19.5%
Free Cash Flow

$22.5M

Previous: $19.4M+16.0%
Net Income

$22.5M

Previous: $19.4M+16.0%
Operating Income

$34M

Previous: $28.9M+17.6%
Gross Profit

$93.2M

Previous: $87.6M+6.4%
Cash & Equivalents

$207M

Previous: $223M-7.0%
Total Assets

$1.49B

Previous: $1.49B-0.5%
Stock-Based Comp

$1.8M

Previous: $2M-10.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Mueller · Revenue · Quarterly

$315M

Q1 2023+15.6%vs Q1 2022
Beat estimate in 12 of 15 quarters(80%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Mueller · $315M total across 2 segments · Q1 2023

  • Water Flow Solutions
    $166M+6.9%
  • Water Management Solutions
    $149M+27.1%

Forward guidance

The Company reiterates its outlook for the full-year 2023 which was provided with the report of fiscal 2022 fourth quarter earnings. The Company anticipates that consolidated net sales will increase between 6 percent and 8 percent as compared with the prior year, and adjusted EBITDA will increase between 10 percent and 14 percent as compared with the prior year.

Tailwinds

  • Consolidated net sales are expected to increase between 6% and 8% compared to the prior year.
  • Adjusted EBITDA is anticipated to increase between 10% and 14% compared to the prior year.
  • Adjusted operating income, excluding pension expense, is expected to increase more than 20% compared to the prior year.
  • Free cash flow is expected to increase compared to 2022 due to improved cash flow from operations.
  • Free cash flow as a percentage of adjusted net income is projected to be between 40% and 60%.

Headwinds

  • Guidance considers pension expense in 2023 of approximately $3.8 million compared with a benefit of $3.9 million in the prior year primarily due to the stock market’s performance.
  • The outlook considers continued challenges associated with manufacturing performance.
  • The outlook considers higher inflation.
  • The outlook considers supply chain disruptions.
  • The guidance takes into account our backlog at the end of the first quarter, anticipated benefits from higher pricing, current end market expectations

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2023

Historical avgQ1 2023

+1.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.5%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.8%

Avg return

30 days after

63%

41 / 65 earnings

Positive

+16.7%

Q1 2025

Best reaction

-12.8%

Q1 2015

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q2 2026+1.8%-6.4%-8.1%
Q1 2026+1.5%+7.0%+1.5%
Q4 2025-4.4%-5.9%-1.8%
Q2 2025-6.3%-9.4%-9.9%
Q1 2025+16.7%+16.6%+8.5%
Q4 2024+6.2%+14.5%+11.5%
Q3 2024+2.2%+1.1%+2.8%
Q2 2024+11.0%+18.7%+9.5%
Q1 2024+10.8%+10.4%+14.5%
Q4 2023+7.4%+3.5%+0.9%
Q3 2023-10.8%-13.3%-11.0%
Q2 2023-6.4%-9.2%+3.5%
Q1 2023+7.5%+6.8%+8.2%
Q4 2022-1.7%-2.6%-0.3%
Q3 2022-9.3%-10.4%-15.6%
Q2 2022-3.0%+0.1%-0.2%
Q1 2022+0.4%+4.2%-2.3%
Q4 2021-8.5%-13.0%-15.3%
Q3 2021+2.7%+1.1%+7.4%
Q2 2021+1.9%+3.6%+0.5%
Q1 2021+2.4%+6.1%+8.6%
Q4 2020+7.7%+7.3%+13.4%
Q3 2020+6.9%+8.8%+5.0%
Q2 2020-4.6%-4.5%+3.7%
Q1 2020+3.5%+1.2%-4.6%
Q4 2019-5.1%-7.4%-2.1%
Q3 2019+3.8%+0.4%+2.0%
Q2 2019-12.8%-15.2%-12.0%
Q1 2019+6.5%+3.6%+3.9%
Q4 2018+7.3%+6.2%-4.4%
Q3 2018-5.4%-5.7%-7.5%
Q2 2018+15.4%+20.7%+23.7%
Q1 2018-2.4%-4.6%-5.5%
Q4 2017+3.7%+2.3%+3.4%
Q3 2017+6.7%+4.6%+5.0%
Q2 2017-11.9%-12.2%-12.6%
Q1 2017+0.3%-6.6%-9.2%
Q4 2016-11.8%-9.0%+9.9%
Q3 2016+4.9%+7.9%+7.7%
Q2 2016+6.1%
Q1 2016+5.9%
Q4 2015-2.1%
Q3 2015+5.8%
Q2 2015-5.5%
Q1 2015-12.8%
Q4 2014+9.7%
Q3 2014+14.8%
Q2 2014-3.0%
Q1 2014+10.0%
Q4 2013+4.4%
Q3 2013+6.2%
Q2 2013+11.4%
Q1 2013-1.3%
Q4 2012+9.7%
Q3 2012+3.1%
Q2 2012+3.1%
Q1 2012-1.4%
Q4 2009+10.3%
Q3 2010+2.9%
Q3 2011+2.9%
Q2 2011+1.7%
Q2 2010+1.7%
Q1 2011-1.5%
Q1 2010-1.5%
Q4 2010-1.5%

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