NYSE$MEC

Mayville Engineering Company Inc · Q4 2023 earnings

Q4 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

MEC's Q4 2023 earnings were announced, showcasing revenue growth and improved profitability despite challenges.

Mayville Engineering Company reported a 15.6% increase in net sales to $148.6 million for Q4 2023, driven by organic growth and the acquisition of MSA. Net income was $2.2 million, or $0.11 per diluted share, with an adjusted EBITDA of $17.7 million. The company experienced a negative impact from UAW labor strikes but achieved a record quarterly free cash flow of $19.9 million.

  • Net sales increased by 15.6% year-over-year, reaching $148.6 million.
  • Net income reached $2.2 million, with adjusted diluted EPS at $0.21.
  • Adjusted EBITDA was $17.7 million, impacted by the Hazel Park facility ramp-up and UAW strikes.
  • Record quarterly free cash flow of $19.9 million was achieved.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$149M

Previous: $129M+15.6%
EPS (adj)

$0.21

Previous: $0.12+75.0%
Adjusted EBITDA

$17.7M

Previous: $11.6M+52.6%
Adjusted EBITDA Margin

11.9%

Previous: 9.0%+32.2%
Capital Expenditures

-$6.78M

Previous: $19.8M-134.3%
Net Income

$2.2M

Previous: $2.38M-7.6%
Operating Income

$5.35M

Previous: $2.8M+91.1%
Gross Profit

$18.2M

Previous: $13M+40.2%
Stock-Based Comp

$730K

Previous: $905K-19.3%

Revenue & EPS history

MEC · Revenue · Quarterly

$149M

Q4 2023+15.6%vs Q4 2022
Beat estimate in 10 of 15 quarters(67%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

MEC · $158M total across 6 segments · Q3 2023

  • Commercial Vehicle
    $57.3M
  • Construction & Access
    $26.3M
  • Powersports
    $25.1M
  • Other
    $23.5M
  • Agriculture
    $15M
  • Military
    $11M

Forward guidance

MEC anticipates mid-to-high single-digit organic net sales growth and between 40 to 80 basis points of Adjusted EBITDA margin expansion for the full-year 2024. They expect their Hazel Park facility to approach $100 million of annualized sales during the fourth quarter 2024.

Tailwinds

  • Expect mid-to-high single digit organic net sales growth.
  • Expect between 40 to 80 basis points of Adjusted EBITDA margin expansion.
  • Expect significant year-over-year growth in free cash flow generation.
  • MBX-related and commercial pricing initiatives are expected to deliver between $3 to $6 million of incremental Adjusted EBITDA benefit this year, net of inflationary pressures.
  • Hazel Park facility is expected to approach $100 million of annualized sales during the fourth quarter 2024.

Headwinds

  • Contemplates a potential softening in macroeconomic conditions.
  • 2024 guidance reflects the expected softening in end market demand as the result of various macroeconomic factors.
  • 2024 guidance reflects incremental contribution from the MSA acquisition, including $20 to $30 million of incremental net sales and $4 to $6 million of incremental Adjusted EBITDA.
  • 2024 financial guidance reflects incremental contributions from MBX related initiatives of $3 to $6 million.
  • The impact of these initiatives is net of normal annual cost inflation, representing the Company’s ability to improve efficiency and manage pricing, given higher labor and input costs.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2023

Historical avgQ4 2023

-1.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

+3.1%

Avg return

5 days after

+5.6%

Avg return

30 days after

39%

11 / 28 earnings

Positive

+17.6%

Q3 2022

Best reaction

-37.7%

Q3 2019

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+2.6%+19.6%+45.9%
Q4 2025-1.8%-10.8%-13.7%
Q3 2025-10.4%-6.3%-8.3%
Q1 2025-3.8%+11.7%+13.7%
Q4 2024-0.1%+8.2%-8.8%
Q3 2024-16.3%-18.1%-19.7%
Q2 2024+10.9%+13.0%+11.3%
Q1 2024+7.4%+16.2%+16.1%
Q4 2023+6.8%+3.6%+6.9%
Q3 2023+3.6%+6.9%+11.9%
Q2 2023-7.9%+0.2%-2.9%
Q1 2023-5.9%-17.5%-2.3%
Q4 2022-4.0%-4.7%-8.4%
Q3 2022+17.6%+45.1%+99.2%
Q2 2022-0.8%-3.4%-3.9%
Q1 2022+8.2%-1.2%+9.6%
Q4 2021-5.7%-2.0%-9.4%
Q3 2021-4.8%-4.8%-18.8%
Q2 2021-2.4%-1.3%-16.8%
Q1 2021-5.7%+8.2%+18.6%
Q4 2020+1.4%+6.3%+3.2%
Q3 2020+14.3%+15.6%+24.6%
Q2 2020-1.5%+6.4%+14.0%
Q1 2020+8.3%+30.4%+34.5%
Q4 2019-6.2%+2.0%-15.4%
Q3 2019-37.7%-19.9%-26.8%
Q2 2019-5.8%-11.3%+1.9%
Q1 2019+3.3%-5.7%+0.4%
Q4 2018
Q3 2018
Q2 2018
Q1 2018

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