NYSE$MEC

Mayville Engineering Company Inc · Q4 2022 earnings

Q4 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

MEC's Q4 2022 earnings showcased growth in net sales and adjusted EBITDA, driven by favorable demand and strategic initiatives.

Mayville Engineering Company (MEC) reported a strong fourth quarter in 2022, with a 13.8% increase in net sales and a significant improvement in net income compared to the prior year. The company's adjusted EBITDA also increased by 26.2%, reflecting the positive impact of its business transformation initiatives and favorable demand conditions.

  • Net sales increased by 13.8% year-over-year, driven by increased commercial sales volumes and price discipline.
  • Net income increased by $15.9 million year-over-year, reaching $2.4 million.
  • Adjusted EBITDA increased by 26.2% year-over-year, reflecting improved operational performance.
  • The company is focused on margin expansion and profitable growth through its MBX Initiative.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$129M

Previous: $113M+13.8%
EPS (adj)

$0.12

Previous: $0.14-14.3%
Adjusted EBITDA

$11.6M

No prior period
Adjusted EBITDA Margin

9.0%

Previous: 8.1%+11.1%
Capital Expenditures

$19.8M

Previous: $12.7M+55.7%
Free Cash Flow

-$691K

Previous: -$11.1M+93.8%
Net Income

$2.38M

Previous: -$13.6M+117.6%
Operating Income

$2.8M

Previous: -$17.1M+116.4%
Gross Profit

$13M

Previous: $9.41M+38.0%
Cash & Equivalents

$127K

Previous: $118K+7.6%
Total Assets

$441M

Previous: $379M+16.1%
Stock-Based Comp

$905K

Previous: $1.19M-24.0%

Revenue & EPS history

MEC · Revenue · Quarterly

$129M

Q4 2022+13.8%vs Q4 2021
Beat estimate in 10 of 15 quarters(67%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

MEC · $158M total across 6 segments · Q3 2023

  • Commercial Vehicle
    $57.3M
  • Construction & Access
    $26.3M
  • Powersports
    $25.1M
  • Other
    $23.5M
  • Agriculture
    $15M
  • Military
    $11M

Forward guidance

MEC provided financial guidance for the full year 2023, including net sales between $540 million and $580 million and adjusted EBITDA between $62 million and $71 million. The guidance reflects an estimated decrease in net sales due to lower raw material pass-through costs and a negative impact from the ramp-up of production at its Hazel Park facility.

Tailwinds

  • Net sales guidance of between $540 million and $580 million
  • Adjusted EBITDA guidance of between $62 million and $71 million
  • Capital expenditures guidance of between $20 million and $25 million
  • MBX Initiative is expected to drive improved margin capture, free cash generation and profitability.
  • Prioritizing capital allocation towards bolt-on acquisitions, productivity and automation, debt reduction, and share repurchases.

Headwinds

  • Estimated 4% to 5% decrease in net sales related to lower raw material pass-through costs.
  • Estimated $4 million to $6 million negative impact of under-absorbed overhead costs associated with the ramp up of production at its Hazel Park, Michigan facility.
  • Potential for a softening in the broader macroeconomic outlook during 2023.
  • Planned expenses related to the ramp-up of Hazel Park will adversely impact margins by approximately 100 basis-points in 2023.
  • Ongoing supply chain challenges, labor availability and cost pressures, and the COVID-19 pandemic may have a negative impact on business.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2022

Historical avgQ4 2022

-1.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

+3.1%

Avg return

5 days after

+5.6%

Avg return

30 days after

39%

11 / 28 earnings

Positive

+17.6%

Q3 2022

Best reaction

-37.7%

Q3 2019

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+2.6%+19.6%+45.9%
Q4 2025-1.8%-10.8%-13.7%
Q3 2025-10.4%-6.3%-8.3%
Q1 2025-3.8%+11.7%+13.7%
Q4 2024-0.1%+8.2%-8.8%
Q3 2024-16.3%-18.1%-19.7%
Q2 2024+10.9%+13.0%+11.3%
Q1 2024+7.4%+16.2%+16.1%
Q4 2023+6.8%+3.6%+6.9%
Q3 2023+3.6%+6.9%+11.9%
Q2 2023-7.9%+0.2%-2.9%
Q1 2023-5.9%-17.5%-2.3%
Q4 2022-4.0%-4.7%-8.4%
Q3 2022+17.6%+45.1%+99.2%
Q2 2022-0.8%-3.4%-3.9%
Q1 2022+8.2%-1.2%+9.6%
Q4 2021-5.7%-2.0%-9.4%
Q3 2021-4.8%-4.8%-18.8%
Q2 2021-2.4%-1.3%-16.8%
Q1 2021-5.7%+8.2%+18.6%
Q4 2020+1.4%+6.3%+3.2%
Q3 2020+14.3%+15.6%+24.6%
Q2 2020-1.5%+6.4%+14.0%
Q1 2020+8.3%+30.4%+34.5%
Q4 2019-6.2%+2.0%-15.4%
Q3 2019-37.7%-19.9%-26.8%
Q2 2019-5.8%-11.3%+1.9%
Q1 2019+3.3%-5.7%+0.4%
Q4 2018
Q3 2018
Q2 2018
Q1 2018

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