NYSE$MBI

MBIA Inc · Q3 2023 earnings

Q3 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported a consolidated GAAP net loss due to unfavorable variance of losses and loss adjustment expenses.

MBIA Inc. reported a consolidated GAAP net loss of $185 million, or $(3.94) per share, for Q3 2023, compared to a net loss of $34 million, or $(0.67) per share, for Q3 2022. The adverse result was primarily due to greater losses associated with National's PREPA exposure. The company's Adjusted Net Loss was $138 million, or $(2.92) per diluted share, compared to an Adjusted Net Loss of $17 million, or $(0.34) per diluted share, for the same period last year.

  • MBIA Inc. reported a GAAP net loss of $185 million, or $(3.94) per share, for the third quarter of 2023.
  • Adjusted Net Loss for the third quarter of 2023 was $138 million, or $(2.92) per diluted share.
  • The unfavorable results were primarily due to increased losses and LAE at National related to its insurance of PREPA debt.
  • MBIA Inc.'s liquidity position totaled $194 million as of September 30, 2023.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$8M

Previous: $24M-66.7%
EPS (adj)

-$2.92

Previous: -$0.34-758.8%
Capital Expenditures

$0.00

No prior period
Free Cash Flow

-$115M

No prior period
Net Income

-$185M

Previous: -$34M-444.1%
Gross Profit

$8M

Previous: $1M+700.0%
Cash & Equivalents

$70M

Previous: $124M-43.5%
Total Assets

$2.99B

Previous: $4.02B-25.5%

Revenue & EPS history

MBIA · Revenue · Quarterly

$8M

Q3 2023-66.7%vs Q3 2022
Beat estimate in 10 of 14 quarters(71%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

This release includes forward-looking statements subject to risks and uncertainties, including potential credit losses, adequacy of loss reserve estimates, strategic plan implementation, economic conditions, and the impact of COVID-19.

Tailwinds

  • The Company may experience increased credit losses or impairments on public finance obligations.
  • Loss reserve estimates may not be adequate to cover potential claims.
  • MBIA Inc.’s or National’s ability to fully implement their strategic plan.
  • Changes in general economic and competitive conditions.
  • The impact on our insured portfolios or business operations caused by the global spread of the novel coronavirus COVID-19.

Headwinds

  • MBIA Inc. or National will experience increased credit losses or impairments on public finance obligations issued by state, local and territorial governments and finance authorities that are experiencing unprecedented fiscal stress
  • The possibility that loss reserve estimates are not adequate to cover potential claims
  • MBIA Inc.’s or National’s ability to fully implement their strategic plan
  • Changes in general economic and competitive conditions
  • The impact on our insured portfolios or business operations caused by the global spread of the novel coronavirus COVID-19

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2023

Historical avgQ3 2023

-0.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.9%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.9%

Avg return

30 days after

45%

30 / 66 earnings

Positive

+32.5%

Q3 2017

Best reaction

-20.6%

Q4 2021

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q4 2025+3.3%-3.2%-8.6%
Q3 2025+9.0%+11.4%+8.6%
Q1 2025-1.3%-8.8%-6.7%
Q4 2024-13.5%-21.7%-28.6%
Q3 2024+4.2%+11.8%+56.4%
Q1 2024-9.3%-10.6%-20.4%
Q4 2023-4.4%-5.3%-1.0%
Q3 2023-6.5%-5.7%+4.2%
Q2 2023-1.7%+1.4%-6.0%
Q1 2023-17.5%-17.5%-9.7%
Q4 2022-10.0%-8.4%-34.1%
Q3 2022+6.3%+7.8%+15.1%
Q2 2022-16.1%-5.8%-7.6%
Q1 2022-9.6%-7.1%+10.3%
Q4 2021-20.6%-9.3%-0.1%
Q3 2021-0.7%+1.0%-26.1%
Q2 2021-8.4%-8.1%-15.8%
Q1 2021-12.9%-9.5%+2.6%
Q4 2020-1.6%+5.2%+31.8%
Q3 2020+10.4%+4.6%+27.0%
Q2 2020-0.6%+5.5%+2.3%
Q1 2020-13.3%-17.4%-3.6%
Q4 2019-2.7%-2.3%-10.2%
Q3 2019+10.5%+7.4%-2.4%
Q2 2019-4.6%+0.0%+1.9%
Q1 2019+5.5%-4.7%-5.6%
Q4 2018+6.6%+7.0%-4.3%
Q3 2018-3.2%-9.4%-15.2%
Q2 2018+8.3%+3.3%-0.2%
Q1 2018+2.3%+3.5%+12.4%
Q4 2017+1.1%+7.4%+15.9%
Q3 2017+32.5%+32.6%+20.6%
Q2 2017+3.0%+3.7%+0.0%
Q1 2017+10.8%+3.3%+10.0%
Q4 2016-3.5%-7.2%-17.9%
Q3 2016+7.9%+17.6%+45.1%
Q2 2016-1.1%-4.7%-6.4%
Q1 2016+0.7%
Q4 2015+9.5%
Q3 2015+2.5%
Q2 2015-0.5%
Q1 2015+4.0%
Q4 2014+3.1%
Q3 2014+1.9%
Q2 2014+1.8%
Q1 2014+2.1%
Q4 2013+9.5%
Q3 2013+5.4%
Q2 2013-5.6%
Q1 2013-0.4%
Q4 2012-2.3%
Q3 2012-12.4%
Q4 2011+11.2%
Q2 2012+11.2%
Q1 2012+3.0%
Q3 2011-5.4%
Q2 2011-0.3%
Q1 2010-3.8%
Q1 2011-1.8%
Q4 2008-6.2%
Q4 2009-6.2%
Q4 2010-6.2%
Q3 2010-4.9%
Q3 2009-4.9%
Q2 2010+8.2%
Q2 2009+8.2%

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