NYSE$MBI

MBIA Inc · Q2 2020 earnings

Q2 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported a consolidated GAAP net loss due to loss and loss adjustment expense related to net losses on Puerto Rico bonds and reduced insurance loss recoveries on collateralized debt obligations.

MBIA Inc. reported a consolidated GAAP net loss of $106 million, or $(1.69) per share, for the second quarter of 2020. The net loss was mainly due to loss and loss adjustment expense related to net losses on Puerto Rico bonds insured by National Public Finance Guarantee Corporation and reduced insurance loss recoveries on collateralized debt obligations insured by MBIA Corp.

  • MBIA Inc. reported a GAAP net loss of $106 million, or $(1.69) per share, for Q2 2020.
  • Adjusted Net Loss was $72 million or $(1.15) per diluted share for Q2 2020.
  • Book value per share was $5.55 as of June 30, 2020.
  • National's insured portfolio declined by $1 billion during the quarter, ending with $46 billion of gross par outstanding.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$114M

Previous: $30M+280.0%
EPS (adj)

-$1.15

Previous: -$0.90-27.8%
Free Cash Flow

-$106M

Previous: -$170M+37.6%
Net Income

-$106M

Previous: -$170M+37.6%
Operating Income

-$47M

Previous: -$131M+64.1%
Gross Profit

-$22M

Previous: -$110M+80.0%
Cash & Equivalents

$446M

Previous: $478M-6.7%
Total Assets

$6.61B

Previous: $8.65B-23.5%

Revenue & EPS history

MBIA · Revenue · Quarterly

$114M

Q2 2020+280%vs Q2 2019
Beat estimate in 14 of 16 quarters(88%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

This release includes forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties.

Tailwinds

  • MBIA Inc. and National caution readers not to place undue reliance on any such forward-looking statements, which speak only to their respective dates.
  • The words “believe,, “anticipate,” “project,” “plan,” “expect,” “estimate,” “intend,” “will,” “will likely result,” “looking forward,” or “will continue,” and similar expressions identify forward-looking statements.
  • The Company will host a webcast and conference call for investors tomorrow, Thursday, August 6, 2020 at 8:00 AM (ET) to discuss its second quarter 2020 financial results and other matters relating to the Company.
  • MBIA Inc., headquartered in Purchase, New York is a holding company whose subsidiaries provide financial guarantee insurance for the public and structured finance markets.
  • Please visit MBIA’s website at www.mbia.com.

Headwinds

  • MBIA Inc. or National will experience increased credit losses or impairments on public finance obligations issued by state, local and territorial governments and finance authorities that are experiencing unprecedented fiscal stress.
  • The possibility that loss reserve estimates are not adequate to cover potential claims.
  • MBIA Inc.’s or National’s ability to fully implement their strategic plan.
  • Changes in general economic and competitive conditions.
  • The impact on our insured portfolios or business operations caused by the global spread of the novel coronavirus COVID-19.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q2 2020

Historical avgQ2 2020

-0.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.9%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.9%

Avg return

30 days after

45%

30 / 66 earnings

Positive

+32.5%

Q3 2017

Best reaction

-20.6%

Q4 2021

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q4 2025+3.3%-3.2%-8.6%
Q3 2025+9.0%+11.4%+8.6%
Q1 2025-1.3%-8.8%-6.7%
Q4 2024-13.5%-21.7%-28.6%
Q3 2024+4.2%+11.8%+56.4%
Q1 2024-9.3%-10.6%-20.4%
Q4 2023-4.4%-5.3%-1.0%
Q3 2023-6.5%-5.7%+4.2%
Q2 2023-1.7%+1.4%-6.0%
Q1 2023-17.5%-17.5%-9.7%
Q4 2022-10.0%-8.4%-34.1%
Q3 2022+6.3%+7.8%+15.1%
Q2 2022-16.1%-5.8%-7.6%
Q1 2022-9.6%-7.1%+10.3%
Q4 2021-20.6%-9.3%-0.1%
Q3 2021-0.7%+1.0%-26.1%
Q2 2021-8.4%-8.1%-15.8%
Q1 2021-12.9%-9.5%+2.6%
Q4 2020-1.6%+5.2%+31.8%
Q3 2020+10.4%+4.6%+27.0%
Q2 2020-0.6%+5.5%+2.3%
Q1 2020-13.3%-17.4%-3.6%
Q4 2019-2.7%-2.3%-10.2%
Q3 2019+10.5%+7.4%-2.4%
Q2 2019-4.6%+0.0%+1.9%
Q1 2019+5.5%-4.7%-5.6%
Q4 2018+6.6%+7.0%-4.3%
Q3 2018-3.2%-9.4%-15.2%
Q2 2018+8.3%+3.3%-0.2%
Q1 2018+2.3%+3.5%+12.4%
Q4 2017+1.1%+7.4%+15.9%
Q3 2017+32.5%+32.6%+20.6%
Q2 2017+3.0%+3.7%+0.0%
Q1 2017+10.8%+3.3%+10.0%
Q4 2016-3.5%-7.2%-17.9%
Q3 2016+7.9%+17.6%+45.1%
Q2 2016-1.1%-4.7%-6.4%
Q1 2016+0.7%
Q4 2015+9.5%
Q3 2015+2.5%
Q2 2015-0.5%
Q1 2015+4.0%
Q4 2014+3.1%
Q3 2014+1.9%
Q2 2014+1.8%
Q1 2014+2.1%
Q4 2013+9.5%
Q3 2013+5.4%
Q2 2013-5.6%
Q1 2013-0.4%
Q4 2012-2.3%
Q3 2012-12.4%
Q4 2011+11.2%
Q2 2012+11.2%
Q1 2012+3.0%
Q3 2011-5.4%
Q2 2011-0.3%
Q1 2010-3.8%
Q1 2011-1.8%
Q4 2008-6.2%
Q4 2009-6.2%
Q4 2010-6.2%
Q3 2010-4.9%
Q3 2009-4.9%
Q2 2010+8.2%
Q2 2009+8.2%

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