NYSE$MBI

MBIA Inc · Q1 2023 earnings

Q1 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported a consolidated GAAP net loss due to unfavorable variances of mark-to-market losses on interest rate swaps, loss from deconsolidation of a VIE, and greater interest expense, partially offset by reduced losses and loss adjustment expenses.

MBIA Inc. reported a consolidated GAAP net loss of $93 million, or $(1.86) per diluted common share, for Q1 2023, compared to a net loss of $73 million, or $(1.48) per diluted common share, for Q1 2022. The adjusted net loss was $1 million, or $(0.03) per diluted share, compared to an adjusted net loss of $96 million, or $(1.94) per diluted share, for the same period last year.

  • MBIA reported a GAAP net loss of $93 million, or $(1.86) per diluted share, for Q1 2023.
  • The company's adjusted net loss was $1 million, or $(0.03) per diluted share.
  • Book value per share was negative $16.57 as of March 31, 2023.
  • A new share repurchase program was approved, authorizing up to $100 million in share repurchases.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$10M

Previous: $15M-33.3%
EPS (adj)

-$0.03

Previous: -$1.94+98.5%
Net Income

-$93M

Previous: -$73M-27.4%
Gross Profit

-$24M

Previous: $19M-226.3%
Cash & Equivalents

$67M

Previous: $147M-54.4%
Total Assets

$3.32B

Previous: $4.44B-25.3%

Revenue & EPS history

MBIA · Revenue · Quarterly

$10M

Q1 2023-33.3%vs Q1 2022
Beat estimate in 10 of 14 quarters(71%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

MBIA will continue to finalize PREPA remediation, reduce costs, runoff the insured portfolio, and pursue regulatory approval of special dividends from National.

Tailwinds

  • Finalizing PREPA remediation
  • Reducing costs
  • Running off the insured portfolio
  • Pursuing regulatory approval of special dividends from National
  • Delivering value to shareholders

Headwinds

  • Prevailing market conditions
  • Uncertainty regarding the outcome of strategic endeavors
  • Volatility in the market
  • Potential for increased credit losses
  • Inadequate loss reserve estimates

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2023

Historical avgQ1 2023

-0.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.9%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.9%

Avg return

30 days after

45%

30 / 66 earnings

Positive

+32.5%

Q3 2017

Best reaction

-20.6%

Q4 2021

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q4 2025+3.3%-3.2%-8.6%
Q3 2025+9.0%+11.4%+8.6%
Q1 2025-1.3%-8.8%-6.7%
Q4 2024-13.5%-21.7%-28.6%
Q3 2024+4.2%+11.8%+56.4%
Q1 2024-9.3%-10.6%-20.4%
Q4 2023-4.4%-5.3%-1.0%
Q3 2023-6.5%-5.7%+4.2%
Q2 2023-1.7%+1.4%-6.0%
Q1 2023-17.5%-17.5%-9.7%
Q4 2022-10.0%-8.4%-34.1%
Q3 2022+6.3%+7.8%+15.1%
Q2 2022-16.1%-5.8%-7.6%
Q1 2022-9.6%-7.1%+10.3%
Q4 2021-20.6%-9.3%-0.1%
Q3 2021-0.7%+1.0%-26.1%
Q2 2021-8.4%-8.1%-15.8%
Q1 2021-12.9%-9.5%+2.6%
Q4 2020-1.6%+5.2%+31.8%
Q3 2020+10.4%+4.6%+27.0%
Q2 2020-0.6%+5.5%+2.3%
Q1 2020-13.3%-17.4%-3.6%
Q4 2019-2.7%-2.3%-10.2%
Q3 2019+10.5%+7.4%-2.4%
Q2 2019-4.6%+0.0%+1.9%
Q1 2019+5.5%-4.7%-5.6%
Q4 2018+6.6%+7.0%-4.3%
Q3 2018-3.2%-9.4%-15.2%
Q2 2018+8.3%+3.3%-0.2%
Q1 2018+2.3%+3.5%+12.4%
Q4 2017+1.1%+7.4%+15.9%
Q3 2017+32.5%+32.6%+20.6%
Q2 2017+3.0%+3.7%+0.0%
Q1 2017+10.8%+3.3%+10.0%
Q4 2016-3.5%-7.2%-17.9%
Q3 2016+7.9%+17.6%+45.1%
Q2 2016-1.1%-4.7%-6.4%
Q1 2016+0.7%
Q4 2015+9.5%
Q3 2015+2.5%
Q2 2015-0.5%
Q1 2015+4.0%
Q4 2014+3.1%
Q3 2014+1.9%
Q2 2014+1.8%
Q1 2014+2.1%
Q4 2013+9.5%
Q3 2013+5.4%
Q2 2013-5.6%
Q1 2013-0.4%
Q4 2012-2.3%
Q3 2012-12.4%
Q4 2011+11.2%
Q2 2012+11.2%
Q1 2012+3.0%
Q3 2011-5.4%
Q2 2011-0.3%
Q1 2010-3.8%
Q1 2011-1.8%
Q4 2008-6.2%
Q4 2009-6.2%
Q4 2010-6.2%
Q3 2010-4.9%
Q3 2009-4.9%
Q2 2010+8.2%
Q2 2009+8.2%

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