NYSE$MAX
MediaAlpha Inc · Q4 2023 earnings
Q4 2023 earnings · · Investor relations
Briefing
Announced fourth quarter and full year 2023 financial results, exceeding expectations due to improving conditions in the Property & Casualty insurance vertical.
MediaAlpha's fourth quarter revenue reached $117 million, a 6% decrease year-over-year, while full-year revenue totaled $388 million, down 15% year-over-year. The company's Q4 performance exceeded expectations, driven by improvements in the Property & Casualty insurance sector. They anticipate growth accelerating as auto insurance carriers restore profitability and increase marketing investments.
- Fourth quarter revenue was $117 million, a decrease of 6% year over year.
- Fourth quarter Transaction Value was $165 million, a decrease of 2% year over year.
- Net loss for the fourth quarter was $(3.3) million, compared to $(28.4) million in the fourth quarter of 2022.
- Adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter was $12.7 million, compared to $9.0 million in the fourth quarter of 2022.
Headline financials
Revenue & EPS history
MediaAlpha · Revenue · Quarterly
$117M
Forward guidance
For Q1 2024, MediaAlpha expects Transaction Value between $175 million - $190 million, Revenue between $105 million - $115 million, and Adjusted EBITDA between $9.5 million - $11.5 million.
Tailwinds
- P&C Transaction Value is expected to nearly double in Q1 2024 compared with Q4 2023, driven by both an accelerating recovery in carrier marketing spending and normal seasonality.
- Health vertical is expected to have mid- to high-single digit year-over-year growth in Transaction Value.
- Adjusted EBITDA is expected to grow at a greater rate than Transaction Value, Revenue and Contribution in Q1 2024 due to our primarily fixed operating expense profile.
- Contribution less Adjusted EBITDA in Q1 2024 is expected to be approximately $0.5 - $1.0 million higher than Q4 2023.
- Transaction Value between $175 million - $190 million, representing a 6% year-over-year decline at the midpoint of the guidance range.
Headwinds
- Life and Other verticals are expected to have Transaction Value slightly down year over year.
- Revenue between $105 million - $115 million, representing a 1% year-over-year decline at the midpoint of the guidance range.
- Due to the uncertainty around the timing and slope of the P&C market recovery, we are not providing full year 2024 guidance.
- Transaction Value is expected to be a 6% year-over-year decline at the midpoint of the guidance range.
- Adjusted EBITDA between $9.5 million - $11.5 million, representing a 45% year-over-year increase at the midpoint of the guidance range.
Historical earnings impact
How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.
Avg. return before/after earnings
Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2023
+3.4%
Avg return
Earnings day
+1.5%
Avg return
5 days after
+0.5%
Avg return
30 days after
50%
11 / 22 earnings
Positive
+31.8%
Q3 2022
Best reaction
-18.5%
Q4 2024
Worst reaction
| Quarter | Report date | Reaction (Day 0) | +5 days | +30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | -0.1% | -11.3% | -11.8% | |
| Q4 2025 | +12.3% | +27.9% | +23.4% | |
| Q3 2025 | +10.8% | +20.1% | +14.7% | |
| Q1 2025 | +14.2% | +18.2% | +21.4% | |
| Q4 2024 | -18.5% | -18.6% | -11.0% | |
| Q3 2024 | -12.6% | -17.9% | -35.5% | |
| Q2 2024 | +15.0% | +12.1% | +23.4% | |
| Q1 2024 | +9.0% | +9.3% | -12.2% | |
| Q4 2023 | +22.3% | +24.2% | +26.0% | |
| Q3 2023 | -4.6% | -15.8% | +0.1% | |
| Q2 2023 | -3.0% | -6.2% | -13.2% | |
| Q1 2023 | -2.4% | -6.4% | +50.7% | |
| Q4 2022 | +12.3% | +4.8% | +1.0% | |
| Q3 2022 | +31.8% | +26.4% | +2.3% | |
| Q2 2022 | -15.0% | -32.8% | -28.9% | |
| Q1 2022 | -9.6% | -22.0% | -31.2% | |
| Q4 2021 | +28.9% | +31.6% | +39.1% | |
| Q3 2021 | -1.5% | +12.7% | -2.1% | |
| Q2 2021 | -6.6% | -19.1% | -25.2% | |
| Q1 2021 | -13.1% | -4.2% | +3.6% | |
| Q4 2020 | +3.3% | +8.2% | -30.3% | |
| Q3 2020 | +1.8% | -7.4% | +7.2% | |
| Q2 2020 | — | — | — | |
| Q1 2020 | — | — | — | |
| Q4 2019 | — | — | — | |
| Q3 2019 | — | — | — | |
| Q2 2019 | — | — | — | |
| Q1 2019 | — | — | — | |
| Q2 2018 | — | — | — | |
| Q1 2018 | — | — | — |
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