NYSE$MAX

MediaAlpha Inc · Q4 2021 earnings

Q4 2021 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

MediaAlpha's Q4 2021 financial results were announced, revealing a decrease in revenue and transaction value compared to the previous year, but highlighting growth in the Health insurance vertical and the acquisition of Customer Helper Team LLC (CHT).

MediaAlpha reported a 15% year-over-year decrease in revenue for Q4 2021, totaling $161.6 million. Transaction Value also decreased by 5% year-over-year. However, the Health insurance vertical experienced growth. The company also announced the acquisition of Customer Helper Team LLC (CHT).

  • Q4 revenue was $162 million, a 15% decrease year-over-year.
  • Q4 Transaction Value was $245 million, a 5% decrease year-over-year.
  • Transaction Value from Property & Casualty decreased by 24% year-over-year to $120 million.
  • Transaction Value from Health increased by 29% year-over-year to $99 million.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$162M

Previous: $190M-15.0%
EPS (adj)

-$0.10

Previous: -$0.14+28.6%
Transaction Value

$245M

Previous: $257M-4.7%
Gross Margin

15.7%

No prior period
Contribution Margin

16.6%

Previous: 16.2%+2.5%
Adjusted EBITDA

$13.2M

Previous: $18.2M-27.5%
Capital Expenditures

$650K

Previous: $296K+119.6%
Free Cash Flow

$21.3M

Previous: $11.8M+80.3%
Net Income

-$4M

Previous: -$13.2M+69.8%
Operating Income

$2.15M

Previous: $19.5M-89.0%
Gross Profit

$25.4M

Previous: $26.5M-4.0%
Cash & Equivalents

$50.6M

Previous: $23.6M+114.7%
Total Assets

$290M

Previous: $210M+37.8%
Stock-Based Comp

$12.4M

Previous: $23M-46.1%

Revenue & EPS history

MediaAlpha · Revenue · Quarterly

$162M

Q4 2021-15%vs Q4 2020
Beat estimate in 6 of 9 quarters(67%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

For Q1 2022, MediaAlpha anticipates lower customer acquisition investments by P&C insurance carrier partners, but expects continued momentum in the Health insurance vertical. They do not anticipate material revenue or EBITDA contribution from CHT in Q1 2022. Given uncertainty around the P&C market recovery, full year 2022 guidance is not provided.

Tailwinds

  • Transaction Value between $230 million - $245 million
  • Revenue between $135 million - $145 million
  • Adjusted EBITDA between $5.5 million - $7.5 million
  • Expect to continue to experience strong momentum in Health insurance vertical
  • Deepen relationships with key carriers.

Headwinds

  • Year-over-year reduction in customer acquisition investments by P&C insurance carrier partners
  • Transaction Value representing a 10% year-over-year decline at the midpoint of the guidance range
  • Revenue representing a 19% year-over-year decline at the midpoint of the guidance range
  • Adjusted EBITDA representing a 61% year-over-year decline at the midpoint of the guidance range
  • Adjusted EBITDA to decline at a greater rate than Transaction Value, Revenue and Contribution

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2021

Historical avgQ4 2021

+3.4%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.5%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.5%

Avg return

30 days after

50%

11 / 22 earnings

Positive

+31.8%

Q3 2022

Best reaction

-18.5%

Q4 2024

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-0.1%-11.3%-11.8%
Q4 2025+12.3%+27.9%+23.4%
Q3 2025+10.8%+20.1%+14.7%
Q1 2025+14.2%+18.2%+21.4%
Q4 2024-18.5%-18.6%-11.0%
Q3 2024-12.6%-17.9%-35.5%
Q2 2024+15.0%+12.1%+23.4%
Q1 2024+9.0%+9.3%-12.2%
Q4 2023+22.3%+24.2%+26.0%
Q3 2023-4.6%-15.8%+0.1%
Q2 2023-3.0%-6.2%-13.2%
Q1 2023-2.4%-6.4%+50.7%
Q4 2022+12.3%+4.8%+1.0%
Q3 2022+31.8%+26.4%+2.3%
Q2 2022-15.0%-32.8%-28.9%
Q1 2022-9.6%-22.0%-31.2%
Q4 2021+28.9%+31.6%+39.1%
Q3 2021-1.5%+12.7%-2.1%
Q2 2021-6.6%-19.1%-25.2%
Q1 2021-13.1%-4.2%+3.6%
Q4 2020+3.3%+8.2%-30.3%
Q3 2020+1.8%-7.4%+7.2%
Q2 2020
Q1 2020
Q4 2019
Q3 2019
Q2 2019
Q1 2019
Q2 2018
Q1 2018

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