NYSE$MAX

MediaAlpha Inc · Q2 2023 earnings

Q2 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Announced second quarter 2023 financial results, exceeding expectations driven by strength in the Health insurance vertical, but impacted by low customer acquisition spend in Property & Casualty insurance.

MediaAlpha's second quarter results surpassed expectations, primarily due to the strong performance of its Health insurance vertical. However, the Property & Casualty insurance vertical experienced a decline due to low customer acquisition spend by carriers. The company reported revenue of $84.8 million, a net loss of $(20.0) million, and adjusted EBITDA of $3.6 million.

  • Revenue was $84.8 million, down 18% year over year.
  • Transaction Value was $125.9 million, down 31% year over year.
  • Gross margin was 16.2%, compared to 15.0% in the second quarter of 2022.
  • Net loss was $(20.0) million, compared to $(13.0) million in the second quarter of 2022.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$84.8M

Previous: $103M-18.1%
EPS (adj)

-$0.32

Previous: -$0.28-14.3%
Transaction Value

$126M

Previous: $183M-31.1%
Gross Margin

16.2%

Previous: 15.0%+8.0%
Contribution Margin

19.5%

Previous: 18.1%+7.7%
Adjusted EBITDA

$3.59M

Previous: $4.5M-20.1%
Free Cash Flow

-$14.3M

Previous: -$9.14M-56.3%
Net Income

-$14.3M

Previous: -$9.14M-56.3%
Operating Income

-$16.1M

Previous: -$10.4M-54.4%
Gross Profit

$13.8M

Previous: $15.5M-11.3%
Cash & Equivalents

$20M

Previous: $35.2M-43.1%
Total Assets

$140M

Previous: $286M-51.0%
Stock-Based Comp

$15.1M

Previous: $15.8M-4.4%

Revenue & EPS history

MediaAlpha · Revenue · Quarterly

$84.8M

Q2 2023-18.1%vs Q2 2022
Beat estimate in 12 of 15 quarters(80%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

For the third quarter of 2023, MediaAlpha expects Transaction Value between $95 million - $110 million, Revenue between $65 million - $75 million, and Adjusted EBITDA between $1.5 million and $3.5 million.

Tailwinds

  • Projecting operating expenses, net of Adjusted EBITDA addbacks, to be approximately $1.5 million lower than Q2 2023 levels.
  • This is primarily driven by a full quarter impact of the workforce reductions implemented in May 2023.
  • Continued expense discipline is also contributing to lower operating expenses.
  • Expect third quarter Transaction Value in Health vertical to grow year over year at a rate similar to the second quarter.
  • Adjusted EBITDA between $1.5 million and $3.5 million, representing a 15% year-over-year increase at the midpoint of the guidance range.

Headwinds

  • Guidance reflects a continuation of low customer acquisition spend levels by P&C carriers as they prioritize profitability over growth.
  • Expect third quarter Transaction Value in P&C insurance vertical to decline year over year by 40% to 50%.
  • Transaction Value between $95 million - $110 million, representing a 30% year-over-year decline at the midpoint of the guidance range.
  • Revenue between $65 million - $75 million, representing a 21% year-over-year decline at the midpoint of the guidance range.
  • P&C carriers are taking longer than expected to restore underwriting profitability, and we expect this to continue for the balance of the year.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q2 2023

Historical avgQ2 2023

+3.4%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.5%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.5%

Avg return

30 days after

50%

11 / 22 earnings

Positive

+31.8%

Q3 2022

Best reaction

-18.5%

Q4 2024

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-0.1%-11.3%-11.8%
Q4 2025+12.3%+27.9%+23.4%
Q3 2025+10.8%+20.1%+14.7%
Q1 2025+14.2%+18.2%+21.4%
Q4 2024-18.5%-18.6%-11.0%
Q3 2024-12.6%-17.9%-35.5%
Q2 2024+15.0%+12.1%+23.4%
Q1 2024+9.0%+9.3%-12.2%
Q4 2023+22.3%+24.2%+26.0%
Q3 2023-4.6%-15.8%+0.1%
Q2 2023-3.0%-6.2%-13.2%
Q1 2023-2.4%-6.4%+50.7%
Q4 2022+12.3%+4.8%+1.0%
Q3 2022+31.8%+26.4%+2.3%
Q2 2022-15.0%-32.8%-28.9%
Q1 2022-9.6%-22.0%-31.2%
Q4 2021+28.9%+31.6%+39.1%
Q3 2021-1.5%+12.7%-2.1%
Q2 2021-6.6%-19.1%-25.2%
Q1 2021-13.1%-4.2%+3.6%
Q4 2020+3.3%+8.2%-30.3%
Q3 2020+1.8%-7.4%+7.2%
Q2 2020
Q1 2020
Q4 2019
Q3 2019
Q2 2019
Q1 2019
Q2 2018
Q1 2018

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