NYSE$MAX

MediaAlpha Inc · Q4 2020 earnings

Q4 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

MediaAlpha's Q4 2020 financial performance showed significant year-over-year revenue growth, driven by strong performance in the Property & Casualty and Health insurance verticals, despite a decrease in net income.

MediaAlpha reported a 51% year-over-year increase in revenue for Q4 2020, reaching $190.2 million. The Property & Casualty insurance vertical grew by 97% year-over-year. However, the company experienced a net loss of $13.2 million, compared to a net income of $10.4 million in the same quarter of the previous year.

  • Q4 revenue increased by 51% year-over-year, reaching $190.2 million.
  • Property & Casualty insurance revenue grew 97% year-over-year to $123 million.
  • Transaction Value reached a record $256.9 million, a 51% increase year-over-year.
  • The Health insurance vertical delivered record-breaking performance due to increased demand during Open Enrollment Period and Annual Enrollment Period.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$190M

Previous: $126M+50.8%
EPS (adj)

-$0.14

Previous: $0.32-143.7%
Transaction Value

$257M

Previous: $170M+51.4%
Contribution Margin

16.2%

Previous: 17.0%-4.7%
Adjusted EBITDA

$18.2M

Previous: $13.9M+30.5%
Capital Expenditures

$296K

No prior period
Free Cash Flow

$11.8M

No prior period
Net Income

-$13.2M

Previous: $10.4M-227.6%
Operating Income

$19.5M

Previous: $12.1M+60.9%
Gross Profit

$26.5M

Previous: $20.4M+29.9%
Cash & Equivalents

$23.6M

No prior period
Total Assets

$210M

No prior period
Stock-Based Comp

$23M

No prior period

Revenue & EPS history

MediaAlpha · Revenue · Quarterly

$190M

Q4 2020+50.8%vs Q4 2019
Beat estimate in 5 of 8 quarters(63%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

For the first quarter of 2021, MediaAlpha expects Transaction Value between $250 - $260 million and Revenue between $170 - $175 million. For the full year 2021, MediaAlpha expects Transaction Value between $1,000 - $1,050 million and Revenue between $700 - $740 million.

Tailwinds

  • Transaction Value between $250 - $260 million, representing 54% year-over-year growth at the midpoint of the guidance range for Q1 2021
  • Revenue between $170 - $175 million, representing 44% year-over-year growth at the midpoint of the guidance range for Q1 2021
  • Contribution between $26 - $28 million, representing 37% year-over-year growth at the midpoint of the guidance range for Q1 2021
  • Adjusted EBITDA between $16 - $17 million, representing 30% year-over-year growth at the midpoint of the guidance range for Q1 2021
  • Transaction Value between $1,000 - $1,050 million, representing 26% year-over-year growth at the midpoint of the guidance range for FY 2021

Headwinds

  • Revenue between $700 - $740 million, representing 23% year-over-year growth at the midpoint of the guidance range for FY 2021
  • Contribution between $108 - $117 million, representing 21% year-over-year growth at the midpoint of the guidance range for FY 2021
  • Adjusted EBITDA between $64 - $66 million, representing 12% year-over-year growth at the midpoint of the guidance range for FY 2021
  • The Company is unable to predict with reasonable certainty the reconciling items that may affect gross profit and net income without unreasonable effort
  • Reconciling items are uncertain and depend on various factors and could significantly impact the GAAP measures for the applicable period

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2020

Historical avgQ4 2020

+3.4%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.5%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.5%

Avg return

30 days after

50%

11 / 22 earnings

Positive

+31.8%

Q3 2022

Best reaction

-18.5%

Q4 2024

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-0.1%-11.3%-11.8%
Q4 2025+12.3%+27.9%+23.4%
Q3 2025+10.8%+20.1%+14.7%
Q1 2025+14.2%+18.2%+21.4%
Q4 2024-18.5%-18.6%-11.0%
Q3 2024-12.6%-17.9%-35.5%
Q2 2024+15.0%+12.1%+23.4%
Q1 2024+9.0%+9.3%-12.2%
Q4 2023+22.3%+24.2%+26.0%
Q3 2023-4.6%-15.8%+0.1%
Q2 2023-3.0%-6.2%-13.2%
Q1 2023-2.4%-6.4%+50.7%
Q4 2022+12.3%+4.8%+1.0%
Q3 2022+31.8%+26.4%+2.3%
Q2 2022-15.0%-32.8%-28.9%
Q1 2022-9.6%-22.0%-31.2%
Q4 2021+28.9%+31.6%+39.1%
Q3 2021-1.5%+12.7%-2.1%
Q2 2021-6.6%-19.1%-25.2%
Q1 2021-13.1%-4.2%+3.6%
Q4 2020+3.3%+8.2%-30.3%
Q3 2020+1.8%-7.4%+7.2%
Q2 2020
Q1 2020
Q4 2019
Q3 2019
Q2 2019
Q1 2019
Q2 2018
Q1 2018

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