NYSE$LYB

LyondellBasell Industries NV · Q4 2020 earnings

Q4 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

LyondellBasell reported net income for the fourth quarter 2020.

LyondellBasell reported a resilient performance amidst a challenging global environment. The company demonstrated financial and operational resilience, with strong consumer-driven demand and improved margins in several business segments. New joint ventures contributed to profitability, and the company advanced its sustainability goals.

  • Net income was $0.9 billion, or $0.7 billion excluding LCM and Impairment.
  • Diluted earnings per share were $2.55 per share, or $2.19 per share excluding LCM and Impairment.
  • EBITDA was $1.4 billion, or $1.3 billion excluding LCM and Impairment.
  • The company refinanced $2.4 billion of debt and had a liquidity of $5.2 billion as of December 31, 2020.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$7.94B

Previous: $8.18B-3.0%
EPS (adj)

$2.19

Previous: $1.92+14.1%
EBITDA

$1.41B

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

$274M

Previous: $731M-62.5%
Free Cash Flow

$469M

No prior period
Net Income

$855M

Previous: $612M+39.7%
Operating Income

$893M

Previous: $798M+11.9%
Gross Profit

$1.23B

Previous: $1.14B+7.9%
Cash & Equivalents

$2.5B

No prior period
Total Assets

$35.4B

No prior period
Stock-Based Comp

$12M

Previous: $12M+0.0%

Revenue & EPS history

LyondellBasell · Revenue · Quarterly

$7.94B

Q4 2020-3%vs Q4 2019
Beat estimate in 11 of 16 quarters(69%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

LyondellBasell anticipates improving trends from the end of December 2020 to continue into the first quarter of 2021, providing a bridge to seasonal upticks in the second and third quarters. They expect strong margins for Olefins and Polyolefins, increased demand for Advanced Polymer Solutions, and potential upside for oxyfuels and refining businesses in the latter half of the year with wider vaccine deployment.

Tailwinds

  • Elevated export demand to China and Latin America combined with tight markets are supporting strong margins for our Olefins and Polyolefins businesses.
  • Increased demand from automotive and construction markets has pushed the January order book for our Advanced Polymer Solutions segment to higher levels than the fourth quarter 2020 average.
  • With wider deployment of coronavirus vaccines, we anticipate that increasing mobility and transportation fuel demand could provide significant upside for our oxyfuels and refining businesses during the latter half of this year.
  • LyondellBasell's measured approach to advancing value-driven growth is delivering results.
  • The Advanced Polymer Solutions platform is serving broader markets and beginning to capture the benefits from more than $200 million in synergies.

Headwinds

  • Near term priority for balance sheet is debt reduction.
  • Oxyfuels & Related Products results decreased $175 million driven by lower margins due to reduced gasoline prices and lower octane blend premiums.
  • Technology EBITDA decreased $93 million versus the fourth quarter 2019 primarily due to reduced licensing revenue.
  • Refining - EBITDA decreased $96 million versus the fourth quarter 2019, excluding a favorable variance of $2 million due to LCM benefits in the fourth quarter 2020.
  • EBITDA decreased $133 million versus the fourth quarter 2019.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2020

Historical avgQ4 2020

-0.4%

Avg return

Earnings day

-1.0%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.1%

Avg return

30 days after

48%

31 / 64 earnings

Positive

+9.0%

Q2 2012

Best reaction

-7.8%

Q2 2025

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q4 2025+0.5%-1.5%-10.8%
Q1 2026+2.1%-1.5%-10.8%
Q3 2025+2.3%-2.7%+8.4%
Q2 2025-7.8%-14.5%-2.7%
Q1 2025+0.3%-1.8%-5.3%
Q4 2024-0.6%+1.1%+0.9%
Q3 2024-3.1%-0.5%-4.0%
Q2 2024-5.7%-3.4%+0.6%
Q1 2024+2.0%-0.2%-1.1%
Q4 2023-1.5%-0.1%+5.1%
Q3 2023+0.8%+0.0%+4.8%
Q2 2023+2.0%+3.0%+4.7%
Q1 2023+2.4%-2.0%-4.4%
Q4 2022+2.5%+2.6%+0.9%
Q3 2022-7.3%-5.2%+5.2%
Q2 2022-1.8%-3.3%-1.9%
Q1 2022+1.8%+9.3%+10.3%
Q4 2021+0.9%+4.7%+2.2%
Q3 2021-2.1%-2.9%-7.2%
Q2 2021-1.6%-3.5%+2.3%
Q1 2021+0.4%+4.2%+4.8%
Q4 2020-0.6%+2.3%+18.2%
Q3 2020-0.4%-3.7%+21.7%
Q2 2020-4.8%+0.8%+4.4%
Q1 2020-6.2%-10.1%+10.0%
Q4 2019-5.5%+0.8%-14.4%
Q3 2019+7.8%+8.2%+3.2%
Q2 2019-6.4%-6.8%-5.0%
Q1 2019+0.5%-2.5%-12.1%
Q4 2018+0.8%+0.3%-2.2%
Q3 2018+0.9%+5.3%+5.2%
Q2 2018+4.2%+4.2%+4.0%
Q1 2018-0.7%-1.6%+6.8%
Q4 2017-7.5%-6.2%-8.8%
Q3 2017+4.7%+2.2%+3.1%
Q2 2017+4.1%+2.1%+4.3%
Q1 2017-4.5%-6.3%-7.7%
Q4 2016+1.3%-2.2%-1.6%
Q3 2016-2.7%-1.4%+14.6%
Q2 2016-5.2%-6.9%+0.2%
Q1 2016-2.7%
Q4 2015-2.3%
Q3 2015-2.2%
Q2 2015+4.4%
Q1 2015+6.1%
Q4 2014+4.1%
Q3 2014-7.6%
Q2 2014+7.1%
Q1 2014+1.9%
Q4 2013-1.1%
Q3 2013-0.3%
Q2 2013-0.5%
Q1 2013+0.9%
Q4 2011+2.9%
Q4 2012-3.7%
Q3 2012-0.0%
Q2 2012+9.0%
Q1 2011-6.3%
Q1 2012-6.3%
Q3 2011+1.1%
Q2 2011+4.2%
Q4 2010+1.7%
Q3 2010-0.5%
Q2 2010-4.3%
Q1 2010

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