NYSE$K

Kellanova · Q4 2022 earnings

Q4 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Kellogg Company reported strong financial results for Q4 2022, driven by revenue growth management actions, momentum in snacks and emerging markets, and North America cereal's recovery. The company issued 2023 financial guidance, projecting continued growth.

Kellogg Company announced strong fourth quarter and full year 2022 results, exceeding its twice-raised guidance for currency-neutral growth. The company's net sales increased by 12% year on year, driven by revenue growth management actions, momentum in snacks and emerging markets, and North America cereal's continued recovery. The company issued 2023 financial guidance, projecting continued growth.

  • Full-year financial results exceeded twice-raised guidance for currency-neutral growth in net sales, operating profit, and earnings per share.
  • Strong net sales growth in the quarter and the full year was driven by revenue growth management actions, momentum in snacks and emerging markets, and North America cereal's continued recovery.
  • 2023 financial guidance calls for another year of strong currency-neutral growth in net sales and adjusted-basis operating profit.
  • The company continues to work towards its previously announced spin-off of its North America cereal business by year end.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$3.83B

Previous: $3.42B+12.0%
EPS (adj)

$0.94

Previous: $0.83+13.3%
Organic revenue growth

16.2%

Previous: 2.5%+548.0%
Capital Expenditures

$138M

Previous: $505M-72.7%
Free Cash Flow

$1.16B

Previous: $1.48B-21.5%
Net Income

-$100M

Previous: $205M-148.8%
Operating Income

$334M

Previous: $385M-13.2%
Gross Profit

$1.16B

Previous: $1.19B-2.1%
Cash & Equivalents

$299M

Previous: $435M-31.3%
Total Assets

$18.5B

Previous: $18B+2.8%
Stock-Based Comp

$46M

Previous: $81M-43.2%

Revenue & EPS history

Kellanova · Revenue · Quarterly

$3.83B

Q4 2022+12%vs Q4 2021
Beat estimate in 13 of 16 quarters(81%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Kellanova · $3.84B total across 4 segments · Q4 2022

  • North America
    $2.26B+11.0%
  • AMEA
    $717M+21.5%
  • Europe
    $561M-7.7%
  • Latin America
    $296M+29.8%

Forward guidance

The Company issued its initial financial guidance for 2023. The Company is projecting: •Organic net sales growth of 5-7%, driven by price/mix growth and led by sustained momentum in snacks and emerging markets. •Adjusted operating profit growth of 7-9% on a currency-neutral basis as margins stabilize amidst persistent cost inflation. •Adjusted earnings per share decline of (2)-(4)% on a currency-neutral basis which includes a an approximate (7)% impact from the remeasurement of pension/post-retirement plans, reflecting last year's sharp decline in financial markets, and it also is impacted by a significant increase in interest expense due to higher interest rates. •Net cash provided by operating activities of approximately $1.7-1.8 billion, with capital expenditure of about $0.7 billion including capital expenditure related to the pending separation. As a result, cash flow is expected to be $1.0-1.1 billion. This is below 2022 levels due solely to approximately $0.3 billion of up-front charges and capital expenditure related to the Company's pending separation, without which cash flow would be higher year on year.

Tailwinds

  • Organic net sales growth of 5-7%, driven by price/mix growth
  • Sustained momentum in snacks and emerging markets
  • Adjusted operating profit growth of 7-9% on a currency-neutral basis
  • Margins are expected to stabilize amidst persistent cost inflation.
  • Net cash provided by operating activities of approximately $1.7-1.8 billion

Headwinds

  • Adjusted earnings per share decline of (2)-(4)% on a currency-neutral basis
  • Approximate (7)% impact from the remeasurement of pension/post-retirement plans
  • Significant increase in interest expense due to higher interest rates.
  • Cash flow is expected to be $1.0-1.1 billion, below 2022 levels
  • Approximately $0.3 billion of up-front charges and capital expenditure related to the Company's pending separation

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 15 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2022

Historical avgQ4 2022

+0.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

+2.4%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.4%

Avg return

30 days after

49%

33 / 67 earnings

Positive

+8.9%

Q2 2019

Best reaction

-10.9%

Q3 2018

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026
Q4 2025
Q3 2025+0.1%+0.2%+0.7%
Q2 2025-0.0%-0.1%-0.4%
Q1 2025-0.0%-0.9%-0.6%
Q4 2024+0.3%+0.4%+0.7%
Q3 2024-0.3%+0.0%+0.3%
Q2 2024+8.3%+26.1%+38.3%
Q1 2024+6.2%+8.2%+5.8%
Q4 2023-0.4%+1.0%+1.0%
Q3 2023+2.2%+2.6%+5.5%
Q2 2023-2.8%-4.8%-10.2%
Q1 2023-1.7%-1.5%-5.8%
Q4 2022+0.7%-0.0%-5.0%
Q3 2022-7.9%-5.8%-2.6%
Q2 2022+1.5%+1.7%-1.7%
Q1 2022+7.2%+7.5%-0.2%
Q4 2021+3.5%+4.6%-3.1%
Q3 2021-1.2%
Q2 2021+1.9%
Q1 2021+6.2%
Q4 2020-1.3%
Q3 2020-0.9%
Q2 2020-2.7%
Q1 2020-0.1%
Q4 2019-7.5%
Q3 2019+4.6%
Q2 2019+8.9%
Q1 2019-4.9%
Q4 2018-6.4%
Q3 2018-10.9%
Q2 2018+3.9%
Q1 2018+5.5%
Q4 2017+4.9%
Q3 2017+7.0%
Q2 2017+3.2%
Q1 2017+2.5%
Q4 2016+3.4%
Q3 2016-0.1%
Q2 2016+2.0%
Q1 2016-2.6%
Q4 2015+5.8%
Q3 2015-2.7%
Q2 2015+3.9%
Q1 2015-1.8%
Q4 2014-4.7%
Q3 2014+2.4%
Q2 2014-3.6%
Q1 2014-1.8%
Q4 2013+1.7%
Q3 2013+1.3%
Q2 2013-1.5%
Q1 2013-1.5%
Q4 2012+1.5%
Q4 2011+2.0%
Q3 2012+2.6%
Q2 2012+5.3%
Q1 2012-0.3%
Q3 2011-1.0%
Q2 2011-1.4%
Q1 2011-0.4%
Q1 2010+1.0%
Q4 2007-0.3%
Q4 2010-0.3%
Q3 2009+0.8%
Q3 2010+0.8%
Q2 2010-0.1%
Q4 2009-0.1%
Q2 2009-0.1%

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