NYSE$K

Kellanova · Q1 2023 earnings

Q1 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Kellogg Company's Q1 2023 results were strong, with full-year financial outlook raised.

Kellogg Company reported strong first quarter 2023 results, driven by double-digit net sales growth and progress in recovering profit margins. The company raised its full-year guidance for organic net sales growth and currency-neutral adjusted operating profit and earnings per share.

  • The Company sustained strong top-line momentum, with net sales growth across each of its Regions contributing to another quarter of double-digit growth for the Company.
  • Growth in gross profit, supported by productivity, revenue growth management, and improving service levels, reflected better-than-expected progress toward recovering profit margins.
  • Reflecting the strong start to the year, the Company raised its guidance for organic-basis growth in net sales, and for currency-neutral, adjusted-basis operating profit and earnings per share.
  • The Company continues to work towards its planned separation of its North America cereal business, which is expected to be completed during the fourth quarter.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$4.05B

Previous: $3.67B+10.4%
EPS (adj)

$1.10

Previous: $1.10+0.0%
Organic revenue growth

13.7%

Previous: 5.2%+163.5%
Capital Expenditures

$203M

Previous: $138M+47.1%
Free Cash Flow

$73M

Previous: $189M-61.4%
Net Income

$302M

Previous: $433M-30.3%
Operating Income

$440M

Previous: $279M+57.7%
Gross Profit

$1.21B

Previous: $1.01B+20.3%
Cash & Equivalents

$347M

Previous: $313M+10.9%
Total Assets

$18.6B

Previous: $18.6B+0.1%
Stock-Based Comp

$22M

Previous: $16M+37.5%

Revenue & EPS history

Kellanova · Revenue · Quarterly

$4.05B

Q1 2023+10.4%vs Q1 2022
Beat estimate in 13 of 16 quarters(81%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Kellanova · $4.05B total across 4 segments · Q1 2023

  • North America
    $2.39B+20.9%
  • AMEA
    $770M+21.8%
  • Europe
    $604M+6.2%
  • Latin America
    $292M+20.2%

Forward guidance

Kellogg Company has updated its full-year 2023 guidance. Raises its organic-basis net sales growth guidance to a tightened range of +6% to +7%, from its prior guidance of +5 to +7%. Raises its guidance for adjusted-basis operating profit growth to +8% to +10% on a currency-neutral basis, from its prior guidance of +7% to +9%. Raises its guidance for an adjusted-basis earnings per share decline to (1)% to (3)% on a currency-neutral basis, from prior guidance of approximately (2)% to (4)%.

Tailwinds

  • Raises its organic-basis net sales growth guidance to a tightened range of +6% to +7%, from its prior guidance of +5 to +7%.
  • This reflects the strength of its first quarter results, and the guidance continues to assume price/mix growth, and sustained momentum in snacks and emerging markets, partially offset by the assumption of a gradual rise in price elasticities.
  • Raises its guidance for adjusted-basis operating profit growth to +8% to +10% on a currency-neutral basis, from its prior guidance of +7% to +9%.
  • This reflects the higher net sales and earlier progress toward profit margin recovery.
  • Affirms its guidance for net cash provided by operating activities to be approximately $1.7 - $1.8 billion, with capital expenditure of approximately $0.7 billion, resulting in affirming its guidance for cash flow of approximately $1.0 - $1.1 billion.

Headwinds

  • Raises its guidance for an adjusted-basis earnings per share decline to (1)% to (3)% on a currency-neutral basis, from prior guidance of approximately (2)% to (4)%.
  • This improved outlook reflects the higher operating profit outlook, while still incorporating significant year-on-year pressure from the impact on pension income and interest expense of lower financial asset values and higher interest rates.
  • This is below 2022 levels due solely to approximately $0.3 billion of up-front charges and capital expenditure related to the Company's pending separation, without which cash flow would be higher year on year.
  • Excluded from this guidance are any significant supply chain or other prolonged market disruptions related to the global economy.
  • Net sales, margins, operating profit, and earnings per share are provided on a non-GAAP basis only because certain information necessary to calculate such measures on a GAAP basis is unavailable, dependent on future events outside of our control and cannot be predicted without unreasonable efforts by the Company.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 15 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2023

Historical avgQ1 2023

+0.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

+2.4%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.4%

Avg return

30 days after

49%

33 / 67 earnings

Positive

+8.9%

Q2 2019

Best reaction

-10.9%

Q3 2018

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026
Q4 2025
Q3 2025+0.1%+0.2%+0.7%
Q2 2025-0.0%-0.1%-0.4%
Q1 2025-0.0%-0.9%-0.6%
Q4 2024+0.3%+0.4%+0.7%
Q3 2024-0.3%+0.0%+0.3%
Q2 2024+8.3%+26.1%+38.3%
Q1 2024+6.2%+8.2%+5.8%
Q4 2023-0.4%+1.0%+1.0%
Q3 2023+2.2%+2.6%+5.5%
Q2 2023-2.8%-4.8%-10.2%
Q1 2023-1.7%-1.5%-5.8%
Q4 2022+0.7%-0.0%-5.0%
Q3 2022-7.9%-5.8%-2.6%
Q2 2022+1.5%+1.7%-1.7%
Q1 2022+7.2%+7.5%-0.2%
Q4 2021+3.5%+4.6%-3.1%
Q3 2021-1.2%
Q2 2021+1.9%
Q1 2021+6.2%
Q4 2020-1.3%
Q3 2020-0.9%
Q2 2020-2.7%
Q1 2020-0.1%
Q4 2019-7.5%
Q3 2019+4.6%
Q2 2019+8.9%
Q1 2019-4.9%
Q4 2018-6.4%
Q3 2018-10.9%
Q2 2018+3.9%
Q1 2018+5.5%
Q4 2017+4.9%
Q3 2017+7.0%
Q2 2017+3.2%
Q1 2017+2.5%
Q4 2016+3.4%
Q3 2016-0.1%
Q2 2016+2.0%
Q1 2016-2.6%
Q4 2015+5.8%
Q3 2015-2.7%
Q2 2015+3.9%
Q1 2015-1.8%
Q4 2014-4.7%
Q3 2014+2.4%
Q2 2014-3.6%
Q1 2014-1.8%
Q4 2013+1.7%
Q3 2013+1.3%
Q2 2013-1.5%
Q1 2013-1.5%
Q4 2012+1.5%
Q4 2011+2.0%
Q3 2012+2.6%
Q2 2012+5.3%
Q1 2012-0.3%
Q3 2011-1.0%
Q2 2011-1.4%
Q1 2011-0.4%
Q1 2010+1.0%
Q4 2007-0.3%
Q4 2010-0.3%
Q3 2009+0.8%
Q3 2010+0.8%
Q2 2010-0.1%
Q4 2009-0.1%
Q2 2009-0.1%

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