NYSE$K

Kellanova · Q3 2023 earnings

Q3 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Kellanova delivered a solid financial performance amidst challenging industry conditions and the execution of the spin-off of its North America cereal business. Profit margins were restored, and advantaged brands and markets delivered top-line growth in line with long-term targets. The company is well-positioned as it launches into the Kellanova era.

Kellanova reported flat net sales in Q3 2023, but organic net sales increased by 4%. The company sustained double-digit operating profit growth due to the restoration of gross profit margin. Kellanova provided guidance for Q4 2023, its first reporting period as a stand-alone company, projecting net sales of approximately $3.1 billion and adjusted operating profit between $380-$390 million.

  • Net sales in the third quarter were held flat by adverse currency translation and the divestiture of its business in Russia, and 4% organic-basis growth remained within the Company’s long-term target range.
  • Double-digit operating profit growth was sustained, as the Company continued to restore gross profit margin faster than expected around the world.
  • The Company's year-to-date performance in net sales, operating profit, earnings per share, and free cash flow is ahead of pace for the full-year guidance previously provided for Kellogg Company.
  • On October 2nd, subsequent to the end of the third quarter, the Company completed the spin-off of WK Kellogg Co, renaming itself Kellanova and embarking on a new era with a more growth-oriented portfolio, a refreshed strategy, and higher long-term financial targets.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$3.94B

Previous: $3.95B-0.2%
EPS (adj)

$1.03

Previous: $1.01+2.0%
Organic revenue growth

3.9%

Previous: 13.4%-70.9%
Capital Expenditures

-$167M

Previous: $83M-301.2%
Free Cash Flow

$894M

Previous: $292M+206.2%
Net Income

$270M

Previous: $312M-13.5%
Operating Income

$482M

Previous: $368M+31.0%
Gross Profit

$1.34B

Previous: $1.15B+16.5%
Cash & Equivalents

$1.1B

Previous: $373M+194.6%
Total Assets

$18.7B

Previous: $19B-1.7%
Stock-Based Comp

$19M

Previous: $21M-9.5%

Revenue & EPS history

Kellanova · Revenue · Quarterly

$3.94B

Q3 2023-0.2%vs Q3 2022
Beat estimate in 13 of 16 quarters(81%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Kellanova · $3.94B total across 4 segments · Q3 2023

  • North America
    $2.33B-0.4%
  • AMEA
    $657M-14.3%
  • Europe
    $616M+9.6%
  • Latin America
    $338M+19.4%

Forward guidance

Kellanova provided guidance for its fourth quarter 2023, which will be the first reporting period as a stand-alone company, after the spin-off of WK Kellogg Co. Specifically, the Company projects net sales of approximately $3.1 billion and operating profit of $380-$390 million on an adjusted basis.

Tailwinds

  • Net sales of approximately $3.1 billion. This implies on-algorithm growth excluding the estimated impact of the WK Kellogg Co spin-off, as well as the Russia divestiture and foreign currency translation.
  • We continue to assume rising elasticities and the lapping of last year’s sizeable price increases, partially offset by the return to full commercial activity.
  • Operating profit of $380-$390 million on an adjusted basis. This implies on-algorithm growth excluding the estimated impact of the WK Kellogg Co spin-off, as well as the Russia divestiture and foreign currency translation.
  • This outlook also includes the shift of some brand investment from earlier in the year, in a return to full commercial activity.
  • Earnings per share of $0.73-$0.76 on an adjusted basis, implying a modest decline versus the prior year, as the aforementioned operating profit growth is offset by continued year-on-year headwinds from higher interest rates and lower pension income.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 15 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2023

Historical avgQ3 2023

+0.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

+2.4%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.4%

Avg return

30 days after

49%

33 / 67 earnings

Positive

+8.9%

Q2 2019

Best reaction

-10.9%

Q3 2018

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026
Q4 2025
Q3 2025+0.1%+0.2%+0.7%
Q2 2025-0.0%-0.1%-0.4%
Q1 2025-0.0%-0.9%-0.6%
Q4 2024+0.3%+0.4%+0.7%
Q3 2024-0.3%+0.0%+0.3%
Q2 2024+8.3%+26.1%+38.3%
Q1 2024+6.2%+8.2%+5.8%
Q4 2023-0.4%+1.0%+1.0%
Q3 2023+2.2%+2.6%+5.5%
Q2 2023-2.8%-4.8%-10.2%
Q1 2023-1.7%-1.5%-5.8%
Q4 2022+0.7%-0.0%-5.0%
Q3 2022-7.9%-5.8%-2.6%
Q2 2022+1.5%+1.7%-1.7%
Q1 2022+7.2%+7.5%-0.2%
Q4 2021+3.5%+4.6%-3.1%
Q3 2021-1.2%
Q2 2021+1.9%
Q1 2021+6.2%
Q4 2020-1.3%
Q3 2020-0.9%
Q2 2020-2.7%
Q1 2020-0.1%
Q4 2019-7.5%
Q3 2019+4.6%
Q2 2019+8.9%
Q1 2019-4.9%
Q4 2018-6.4%
Q3 2018-10.9%
Q2 2018+3.9%
Q1 2018+5.5%
Q4 2017+4.9%
Q3 2017+7.0%
Q2 2017+3.2%
Q1 2017+2.5%
Q4 2016+3.4%
Q3 2016-0.1%
Q2 2016+2.0%
Q1 2016-2.6%
Q4 2015+5.8%
Q3 2015-2.7%
Q2 2015+3.9%
Q1 2015-1.8%
Q4 2014-4.7%
Q3 2014+2.4%
Q2 2014-3.6%
Q1 2014-1.8%
Q4 2013+1.7%
Q3 2013+1.3%
Q2 2013-1.5%
Q1 2013-1.5%
Q4 2012+1.5%
Q4 2011+2.0%
Q3 2012+2.6%
Q2 2012+5.3%
Q1 2012-0.3%
Q3 2011-1.0%
Q2 2011-1.4%
Q1 2011-0.4%
Q1 2010+1.0%
Q4 2007-0.3%
Q4 2010-0.3%
Q3 2009+0.8%
Q3 2010+0.8%
Q2 2010-0.1%
Q4 2009-0.1%
Q2 2009-0.1%

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