NYSE$ITW

Illinois Tool Works Inc · Q4 2020 earnings

Q4 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

ITW demonstrated strong execution and financial performance, generating record Q4 operating income, operating margin, and ROIC performance.

ITW reported a 0.2% increase in fourth-quarter revenue to $3.5 billion, with a 7% increase in operating income to $883 million. The operating margin was a record 25.4%, and GAAP EPS increased by 2% to $2.02. The company provided 2021 guidance, including EPS growth of 18% at the mid-point.

  • Total revenue of $3.5 billion, an increase of 5% versus Q3 2020
  • Record Q4 operating income of $883 million, an increase of 7% year-over-year
  • Record Q4 operating margin of 25.4% as enterprise initiatives contributed 130 basis points
  • GAAP EPS of $2.02, an increase of 2%, or 7% excluding $0.11 of divestiture gains in Q4 2019

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$3.48B

Previous: $3.47B+0.2%
EPS (adj)

$2.02

Previous: $1.88+7.4%
Capital Expenditures

$68M

Previous: $82M-17.1%
Free Cash Flow

$705M

No prior period
Net Income

$642M

Previous: $641M+0.2%
Operating Income

$883M

Previous: $824M+7.2%
Gross Profit

$1.48B

Previous: $1.45B+1.9%
Cash & Equivalents

$2.56B

No prior period
Total Assets

$15.6B

No prior period
Stock-Based Comp

$11M

Previous: $9M+22.2%

Revenue & EPS history

ITW · Revenue · Quarterly

$3.48B

Q4 2020+0.2%vs Q4 2019
Beat estimate in 14 of 16 quarters(88%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

ITW · $3.48B total across 7 segments · Q4 2020

  • Automotive OEM
    $800M
  • Test & Measurement
    $534M
  • Food Equipment
    $471M
  • Specialty Products
    $439M
  • Polymers & Fluids
    $437M
  • Construction Products
    $430M
  • Welding
    $368M

Forward guidance

The company initiated full-year GAAP EPS guidance in a range of $7.60 to $8.00 per share, an increase of 15 to 21 percent. Organic growth is expected to be in the range of seven to ten percent. Revenue is expected to grow in the range of nine to twelve percent.

Tailwinds

  • Organic growth of 7 to 10%
  • Revenue growth of 9 to 12%
  • Foreign currency translation to increase revenues by approximately two percent.
  • Operating margin is expected to be in a range of 24 to 25 percent
  • Free cash flow is expected to be greater than 100 percent of net income

Headwinds

  • PLS impact is forecasted to be approximately 50 basis points.
  • Effective tax rate in the range of 23 to 24 percent.
  • Potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic
  • Expected impact of tariffs and raw material inflation
  • Product line simplification activities

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2020

Historical avgQ4 2020

-0.0%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.1%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.2%

Avg return

30 days after

49%

36 / 73 earnings

Positive

+6.5%

Q1 2022

Best reaction

-7.7%

Q2 2011

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+0.7%-4.2%-7.0%
Q4 2025+4.5%+11.1%+6.9%
Q3 2025-4.5%-6.0%-3.8%
Q2 2025+0.9%+0.9%+4.3%
Q1 2025-0.8%-0.4%+1.4%
Q4 2024-0.2%+1.2%+7.8%
Q3 2024+2.0%+3.1%+8.4%
Q2 2024-0.3%-1.7%+1.0%
Q1 2024-2.8%-2.1%-4.6%
Q4 2023-1.9%-2.0%-0.3%
Q3 2023+1.6%+0.4%+8.2%
Q2 2023-5.1%-6.3%-6.1%
Q1 2023-5.5%-6.3%-9.7%
Q4 2022+3.0%-0.1%-0.3%
Q3 2022+3.4%+6.6%+13.9%
Q2 2022+0.6%+1.6%-4.9%
Q1 2022+6.5%+4.6%+4.6%
Q4 2021-3.0%-4.4%-10.1%
Q3 2021+2.6%+3.6%+5.6%
Q2 2021-1.3%-0.4%+1.0%
Q1 2021+1.2%+2.1%+0.4%
Q4 2020+3.6%+4.0%+6.6%
Q3 2020-0.9%-4.5%+1.1%
Q2 2020+0.1%+1.5%+8.1%
Q1 2020+0.3%+1.7%+12.9%
Q4 2019-0.8%+4.4%-5.7%
Q3 2019+6.1%+6.3%+8.4%
Q2 2019-1.8%-2.8%-7.7%
Q1 2019-2.1%-0.8%-7.1%
Q4 2018+0.8%+0.2%+5.2%
Q3 2018-3.1%-0.6%+6.0%
Q2 2018-5.9%-4.5%-7.3%
Q1 2018-6.0%-5.0%-2.8%
Q4 2017+1.0%+2.2%-5.3%
Q3 2017+2.2%+2.6%+3.0%
Q2 2017-3.8%-4.4%-7.3%
Q1 2017+3.3%+2.4%+3.4%
Q4 2016+0.9%+1.4%+3.6%
Q3 2016-2.3%-3.4%+7.1%
Q2 2016+2.6%+3.3%+7.7%
Q1 2016-1.0%
Q4 2015+5.3%
Q3 2015+5.2%
Q2 2015-3.0%
Q1 2015-2.7%
Q4 2014-1.7%
Q3 2014+3.2%
Q2 2014-0.8%
Q1 2014+0.9%
Q4 2013+0.0%
Q3 2013+0.8%
Q2 2013-3.1%
Q1 2013+5.6%
Q4 2012-2.9%
Q3 2012-0.7%
Q2 2012-1.6%
Q1 2012+4.2%
Q4 2011+0.2%
Q3 2011-1.1%
Q2 2011-7.7%
Q1 2011+1.1%
Q4 2010-0.2%
Q4 2007-0.2%
Q3 2010+0.7%
Q2 2010+0.1%
Q1 2009+4.1%
Q1 2010+0.5%
Q4 2009+1.9%
Q3 2008-1.3%
Q3 2009-1.3%
Q2 2009-0.9%
Q4 2008-0.9%
Q2 2008-0.9%

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