NYSE$IBM

International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) · Q4 2020 earnings

Q4 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

IBM's Q4 2020 earnings were impacted by a pre-tax charge for structural actions, but hybrid cloud adoption and gross margin expansion showed promise.

IBM reported a decrease in revenue and EPS for Q4 2020, impacted by a pre-tax charge of $2.04 billion for structural actions. However, the company saw growth in its hybrid cloud platform and an increase in gross profit margin.

  • GAAP EPS from continuing operations was $1.41; Operating (non-GAAP) EPS was $2.07, including the impact of a pre-tax charge for structural actions.
  • Revenue reached $20.4 billion, a decrease of 6 percent (down 8 percent adjusting for divested businesses and currency).
  • Total cloud revenue grew to $7.5 billion, up 10 percent (up 8 percent adjusting for divested businesses and currency).
  • GAAP gross profit margin increased by 70 basis points to 51.7 percent; Operating (non-GAAP) gross profit margin also increased by 70 basis points to 52.5 percent.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$20.4B

Previous: $21.8B-6.5%
EPS (adj)

$2.07

Previous: $4.71-56.1%
Capital Expenditures

$678M

Previous: $576M+17.7%
Free Cash Flow

$6.1B

Previous: $6B+1.7%
Net Income

$1.36B

Previous: $3.67B-63.1%
Operating Income

$1.29B

Previous: $3.99B-67.7%
Gross Profit

$10.5B

Previous: $11.1B-5.2%
Cash & Equivalents

$13.2B

Previous: $8.17B+61.7%
Total Assets

$156B

Previous: $152B+2.5%
Stock-Based Comp

$279M

Previous: $211M+32.2%

Revenue & EPS history

IBM · Revenue · Quarterly

$20.4B

Q4 2020-6.5%vs Q4 2019
Beat estimate in 15 of 16 quarters(94%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

IBM expects to grow revenue for the full year 2021 based on the current foreign exchange rates. The company also expects adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021.

Tailwinds

  • Revenue growth expected for full year 2021.
  • Adjusted free cash flow expected to be $11B-$12B in 2021.
  • Focus on hybrid cloud and AI expected to drive revenue growth.
  • Solid cash generation.
  • Expanding gross profit margins.

Headwinds

  • Uncertainty of the macro environment.
  • Impact of structural actions initiated in Q4 2020.
  • Transaction costs associated with the separation of the managed infrastructure services business.
  • Downturn in economic environment and client spending budgets.
  • Company's failure to meet growth and productivity objectives.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2020

Historical avgQ4 2020

-0.8%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.2%

Avg return

5 days after

-0.5%

Avg return

30 days after

41%

30 / 73 earnings

Positive

+13.0%

Q4 2024

Best reaction

-10.3%

Q3 2014

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-3.1%-7.5%+0.8%
Q4 2025-3.0%+0.1%-18.3%
Q3 2025+4.0%+8.7%+3.5%
Q2 2025+1.1%+2.3%+6.9%
Q1 2025-6.6%-2.5%+5.4%
Q4 2024+13.0%+15.7%+10.4%
Q3 2024-6.0%-8.3%-4.0%
Q2 2024+4.3%+4.0%+6.5%
Q1 2024-7.3%-8.1%-6.2%
Q4 2023+9.5%+7.6%+6.8%
Q3 2023+4.3%+3.5%+12.6%
Q2 2023+2.2%+3.1%+4.5%
Q1 2023-1.1%-1.9%-0.4%
Q4 2022-5.0%-4.4%-7.7%
Q3 2022+4.4%+7.9%+20.1%
Q2 2022-6.5%-8.3%-1.5%
Q1 2022+9.6%+9.6%+2.8%
Q4 2021+5.2%+4.0%-5.6%
Q3 2021-9.6%-10.1%-14.5%
Q2 2021+0.8%+1.8%+0.4%
Q1 2021+3.4%+6.6%+7.2%
Q4 2020-8.8%-5.8%-8.5%
Q3 2020-6.8%-7.9%-7.3%
Q2 2020+0.8%+0.5%-1.0%
Q1 2020-2.8%+3.8%+1.0%
Q4 2019+4.0%+1.6%+9.3%
Q3 2019-6.1%-7.3%-6.0%
Q2 2019+4.3%+4.3%-6.8%
Q1 2019-3.3%-2.5%-5.6%
Q4 2018+7.3%+8.2%+11.3%
Q3 2018-5.0%-8.5%-14.0%
Q2 2018+4.0%+1.5%+1.8%
Q1 2018-5.8%-8.2%-8.5%
Q4 2017-3.7%-1.4%-7.4%
Q3 2017+8.6%+10.4%+1.6%
Q2 2017-3.6%-3.9%-8.0%
Q1 2017-5.5%-6.3%-11.9%
Q4 2016+2.2%+5.5%+8.3%
Q3 2016-2.4%-3.1%+3.1%
Q2 2016-0.1%+1.4%+0.4%
Q1 2016-5.1%
Q4 2015-6.3%
Q3 2015-6.5%
Q2 2015-5.5%
Q1 2015+2.2%
Q4 2014-3.2%
Q3 2014-10.3%
Q2 2014+0.1%
Q1 2014-3.6%
Q4 2013-4.1%
Q3 2013-5.3%
Q2 2013+2.1%
Q1 2013-9.4%
Q4 2012+5.3%
Q3 2012-4.0%
Q2 2012+6.4%
Q1 2012-1.3%
Q4 2011-0.4%
Q3 2011-0.2%
Q2 2011-1.3%
Q1 2011+0.4%
Q4 2010-2.8%
Q2 2010-2.8%
Q3 2010+1.1%
Q1 2009-0.5%
Q1 2010-0.4%
Q4 2009+0.6%
Q4 2007+0.6%
Q3 2008+1.2%
Q3 2009+1.2%
Q2 2009-0.3%
Q2 2008-0.3%
Q4 2008-0.3%

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