NYSE$HWM

Howmet Aerospace Inc · Q3 2020 earnings

Q3 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported revenues decreased due to disruptions in the commercial aerospace and transportation markets, but the results were in line with expectations and included strong cash generation

Howmet Aerospace reported Q3 2020 results with revenues of $1.13 billion, a 37% decrease year-over-year. Income from continuing operations was $36 million, or $0.08 per share. The company generated positive cash from operations and adjusted free cash flow, with the cash balance increasing to $1.4 billion.

  • Revenue of $1.1 billion, down 37% year over year
  • Income from continuing operations of $36 million, or $0.08 per share
  • Operating income of $73 million
  • Cash balance at end of quarter increased to $1.4 billion

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.13B

Previous: $3.56B-68.1%
EPS (adj)

$0.03

Previous: $0.58-94.8%
Capital Expenditures

-$36M

Previous: -$415M+91.3%
Free Cash Flow

$0.00

Previous: -$320M+100.0%
Net Income

$36M

Previous: $95M-62.1%
Operating Income

$73M

Previous: $326M-77.6%
Gross Profit

-$900M

Previous: $759M-218.6%
Cash & Equivalents

$1.37B

Previous: $1.32B+3.3%
Total Assets

$11.3B

Previous: $17.5B-35.1%

Revenue & EPS history

Howmet Aerospace · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.13B

Q3 2020-68.1%vs Q3 2019
Beat estimate in 12 of 16 quarters(75%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Howmet Aerospace · $1.13B total across 4 segments · Q3 2020

  • Engine Products
    $485M-42.5%
  • Fastening Systems
    $271M-30.7%
  • Engineered Structures
    $206M-35.2%
  • Forged Wheels
    $172M-28.6%

Forward guidance

The company expects third quarter 2020 revenue and earnings will represent the low point for the year as commercial transportation and industrial gas turbine markets continue to recover, and we see fourth quarter 2020 adjusted EBITDA margins returning to the 20% to 21% range.

Tailwinds

  • Revenue increased to $5.22 billion - $5.28 billion
  • Adj EBITDA increased to $1.04 billion - $1.07 billion
  • Adj EBITDA Margin narrowed to 19.8% - 20.2%
  • Earnings Per Share Excluding Special Items increased to $0.68 - $0.76
  • Year-end 2020 cash balance of approximately $1.5 billion

Headwinds

  • Revenue increased to $1.20 billion – $1.26 billion
  • Adj EBITDA $240 million - $270 million
  • Adj EBITDA Margin 20% - 21%
  • Earnings Per Share Excluding Special Items $0.13 - $0.21
  • Adjusted Free Cash Flow unchanged at $350 million - $450 million

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2020

Historical avgQ3 2020

+1.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

+3.0%

Avg return

5 days after

+5.9%

Avg return

30 days after

60%

43 / 72 earnings

Positive

+22.0%

Q3 2020

Best reaction

-21.2%

Q1 2018

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q4 2025+6.3%+4.0%-1.7%
Q1 2026+2.8%+4.0%-1.7%
Q3 2025-0.8%+0.8%+0.5%
Q2 2025-6.4%-6.7%-9.4%
Q1 2025+6.8%+12.4%+22.6%
Q4 2024-0.0%+6.7%-1.2%
Q3 2024+8.9%+12.3%+15.8%
Q2 2024+15.5%+8.8%+17.0%
Q4 2023+7.7%+6.8%+11.3%
Q3 2023+7.3%+7.9%+18.3%
Q2 2023-6.0%-4.1%-3.3%
Q1 2023+0.9%-0.7%-1.3%
Q4 2022+5.7%+4.7%-1.5%
Q3 2022+0.9%-0.4%+4.1%
Q2 2022-0.5%+0.6%-5.9%
Q1 2022+8.0%+3.5%+9.3%
Q4 2021+2.8%+3.8%+7.1%
Q3 2021+9.8%+8.7%-4.5%
Q2 2021-4.1%-4.4%-4.9%
Q1 2021+3.8%+0.2%+8.8%
Q4 2020+4.7%+6.2%+16.3%
Q3 2020+22.0%+18.6%+35.0%
Q2 2020+5.5%+13.7%+10.1%
Q1 2020-3.8%+5.6%+30.0%
Q4 2019+8.1%+2.9%+9.4%
Q3 2019+2.3%+0.7%+5.9%
Q2 2019-3.3%+3.5%+6.1%
Q1 2019+3.7%+8.3%+6.3%
Q4 2018-1.1%-7.0%-1.7%
Q3 2018+5.8%+10.1%+11.0%
Q2 2018+2.6%+1.8%+5.8%
Q1 2018-21.2%-23.3%-19.3%
Q4 2017-13.2%-15.3%-15.4%
Q3 2017-10.5%-9.4%-12.6%
Q2 2017+2.8%-1.0%+1.4%
Q1 2017+5.4%+4.7%+4.3%
Q4 2016+12.4%+15.1%+26.8%
Q3 2016+6.0%+9.6%+25.2%
Q2 2016-2.0%
Q1 2016-2.0%
Q4 2015+9.7%
Q3 2015-3.5%
Q2 2015-2.6%
Q1 2015+0.3%
Q4 2014-0.4%
Q3 2014+2.7%
Q2 2014-2.9%
Q1 2014+4.5%
Q4 2013+0.9%
Q3 2013+0.1%
Q2 2013+0.2%
Q1 2013-1.5%
Q4 2012-2.5%
Q4 2011-2.5%
Q3 2012-0.6%
Q2 2012+5.4%
Q1 2012+1.5%
Q3 2011+4.7%
Q2 2011+2.1%
Q1 2011-1.0%
Q4 2010-1.8%
Q4 2009-1.8%
Q3 2010+0.8%
Q2 2010-4.8%
Q1 2009+2.9%
Q1 2010+2.1%
Q4 2007-0.5%
Q3 2008-5.4%
Q3 2009-5.4%
Q2 2009+8.0%
Q2 2008+8.0%
Q4 2008+8.0%

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