NYSE$DCH

Dauch Corporation · Q4 2024 earnings

Q4 2024 earnings · · Before market open · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported a decrease in sales but an improvement in net loss compared to the same quarter last year, with adjusted EBITDA remaining consistent.

American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc. reported Q4 2024 sales of $1.38 billion, a net loss of $13.7 million, and adjusted EBITDA of $160.8 million. The company's sales decreased compared to the fourth quarter of 2023, while net loss improved. They are focused on optimizing their core business and completing the combination with the Dowlais Group.

  • Sales for Q4 2024 were $1.38 billion, down from $1.46 billion in Q4 2023, impacted by volume and mix.
  • Net loss in Q4 2024 was $(13.7) million, an improvement from $(19.1) million in Q4 2023.
  • Adjusted EBITDA was $160.8 million, consistent at 11.6% of sales compared to Q4 2023.
  • Adjusted loss per share was $(0.06), compared to $(0.09) in Q4 2023.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.38B

Previous: $1.46B-5.7%
EPS (adj)

-$0.06

Previous: -$0.09+33.3%
Adjusted EBITDA

$161M

Previous: $170M-5.1%
Adj EBITDA Margin

11.6%

No prior period
Adjusted Free Cash Flow

$79.2M

Previous: $4.5M+1660.0%
Capital Expenditures

-$78M

Previous: -$56M-39.3%
Net Income

-$13.7M

Previous: -$19.1M+28.3%
Operating Income

$36.2M

Previous: $28.8M+25.7%
Gross Profit

$154M

Previous: $127M+21.5%
R&D Expense

$37.7M

No prior period

Revenue & EPS history

American Axle · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.38B

Q4 2024-5.7%vs Q4 2023
Beat estimate in 11 of 15 quarters(73%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

American Axle · $1.69B total across 2 segments · Q3 2023

  • Driveline
    $1.06B
  • Metal Forming
    $625M

Forward guidance

AAM is targeting full year 2025 sales in the range of $5.8 - $6.05 billion, Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $700 - $760 million, and Adjusted free cash flow in the range of $200 - $230 million.

Tailwinds

  • Targeting sales in the range of $5.8- $6.05 billion.
  • Targeting Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $700 - $760 million.
  • Targeting Adjusted free cash flow in the range of $200 - $230 million.
  • Assumes North American light vehicle production of approximately 15.1 million units.
  • Based on AAM's production estimates of key programs.

Headwinds

  • Financial outlook does not account for any changes to future policy, including tariffs, tax and other regulations.
  • Outlook assumes the sale of AAM's commercial vehicle axle business in India is completed by July 1, 2025.
  • Does not reflect any costs and expenses relating to the announced combination with Dowlais, which will impact actual results.
  • Reflects guidance for AAM on a stand-alone pre-combination basis only.
  • Guidance is subject to current customer launch schedules and operating environment.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2024

Historical avgQ4 2024

+0.8%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.9%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.4%

Avg return

30 days after

51%

33 / 65 earnings

Positive

+32.2%

Q3 2019

Best reaction

-27.1%

Q3 2018

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+15.3%+13.4%+9.7%
Q4 2025-14.0%-15.5%-38.6%
Q3 2025+6.7%+5.2%+2.3%
Q1 2025+4.8%+8.7%+15.5%
Q4 2024+8.4%+23.2%-5.3%
Q3 2024+7.9%+4.7%+6.6%
Q2 2024-2.4%-0.8%-5.0%
Q1 2024+4.6%+6.6%+4.4%
Q4 2023-9.7%-13.8%-22.9%
Q3 2023+5.4%+2.0%+13.2%
Q2 2023-11.3%-13.1%-16.1%
Q1 2023+8.0%+5.5%+8.3%
Q4 2022-9.5%-12.2%-25.2%
Q3 2022-10.3%-15.6%-5.5%
Q2 2022+14.5%+22.0%+18.7%
Q1 2022-5.5%-5.1%+23.6%
Q4 2021-10.9%+1.3%+0.5%
Q3 2021+2.0%-0.7%-5.8%
Q2 2021-0.6%-5.8%-6.2%
Q1 2021+6.0%+2.9%+26.3%
Q4 2020-7.5%-11.4%+22.2%
Q3 2020+4.2%+2.4%+24.9%
Q2 2020-3.0%-2.3%+12.3%
Q1 2020+31.9%+15.0%+105.4%
Q4 2019-19.1%-22.5%-51.9%
Q3 2019+32.2%+24.5%+17.9%
Q2 2019-22.4%-26.8%-42.5%
Q1 2019-7.7%-12.0%-29.5%
Q4 2018+13.0%+15.2%-4.2%
Q3 2018-27.1%-17.8%-20.8%
Q2 2018+6.4%+8.9%+10.5%
Q1 2018+3.8%+4.0%+9.8%
Q4 2017-2.3%-0.1%-5.8%
Q3 2017+1.9%-2.6%-2.5%
Q2 2017-7.9%-9.9%-13.1%
Q1 2017+7.5%+6.3%-6.6%
Q4 2016-4.1%-3.8%-7.7%
Q3 2016-17.8%-17.3%-4.9%
Q2 2016+5.3%+3.3%+3.3%
Q1 2016+5.8%
Q4 2015+24.9%
Q3 2015+6.6%
Q2 2015-1.4%
Q1 2015-2.1%
Q4 2014-2.3%
Q3 2014+8.7%
Q2 2014-2.2%
Q1 2014+0.1%
Q4 2013+5.2%
Q3 2013-3.3%
Q2 2013+4.4%
Q1 2013+12.2%
Q4 2012+5.0%
Q3 2012-6.2%
Q2 2012+4.5%
Q1 2011-10.0%
Q1 2012-10.0%
Q1 2010-2.0%
Q4 2009-2.0%
Q4 2011-2.0%
Q3 2011-3.5%
Q3 2010-3.5%
Q2 2010+10.2%
Q2 2011+10.2%
Q4 2010+10.2%

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