NYSE$DCH

Dauch Corporation · Q3 2023 earnings

Q3 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

AAM's financial performance was impacted by downtime at key customers, operational inefficiencies, and a UAW work stoppage, but the company generated strong free cash flow.

American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings reported sales of $1.55 billion and a net loss of $(17.4) million for Q3 2023. The company's performance was impacted by customer downtime, operational inefficiencies, and the UAW work stoppage, but it generated strong free cash flow and is focusing on electric propulsion technology.

  • Sales reached $1.55 billion.
  • Net loss was $(17.4) million, representing (1.1)% of sales.
  • Adjusted EBITDA was $156.8 million, or 10.1% of sales.
  • Adjusted free cash flow was $135.8 million.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.55B

Previous: $1.54B+1.1%
EPS (adj)

-$0.11

Previous: $0.27-140.7%
Adjusted EBITDA

$157M

Previous: $198M-21.0%
Adjusted Free Cash Flow

$136M

Previous: $45.8M+196.5%
Capital Expenditures

-$139M

Previous: -$118M-17.6%
Free Cash Flow

-$156M

Previous: -$91.4M-70.7%
Net Income

-$17.4M

Previous: $26.5M-165.7%
Operating Income

$23.9M

Previous: $62.3M-61.6%
Gross Profit

$131M

Previous: $177M-26.4%
Cash & Equivalents

$616M

Previous: $472M+30.3%
Total Assets

$5.48B

Previous: $5.68B-3.6%
R&D Expense

$35.8M

No prior period
Stock-Based Comp

$3.5M

Previous: $4.6M-23.9%

Revenue & EPS history

American Axle · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.55B

Q3 2023+1.1%vs Q3 2022
Beat estimate in 11 of 15 quarters(73%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

American Axle · $1.69B total across 2 segments · Q3 2023

  • Driveline
    $1.06B
  • Metal Forming
    $625M

Forward guidance

AAM updated its full year 2023 financial targets, including sales in the range of $6.0 - $6.1 billion and Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $660 - $685 million.

Tailwinds

  • Targeting sales in the range of $6.0 - $6.1 billion.
  • Targeting Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $660 - $685 million.
  • Targeting Adjusted free cash flow in the range of $200 - $215 million.
  • Outlook assumes production begins to resume during the first week of November from the UAW work stoppage.
  • Assumes capital spending of approximately 3.0% - 3.5% of sales.

Headwinds

  • Outlook assumes an estimated work stoppage impact of $70 - $100 million in sales.
  • Outlook assumes an estimated work stoppage impact of $25 - $40 million in adjusted EBITDA.
  • The updated 2023 targets are based on the current macro operating environment.
  • The updated 2023 targets are based on AAM's production estimates of key programs that we support.
  • AAM's third quarter financial performance reflected greater than anticipated downtime at key customers, operational inefficiencies and the UAW work stoppage

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2023

Historical avgQ3 2023

+0.8%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.9%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.4%

Avg return

30 days after

51%

33 / 65 earnings

Positive

+32.2%

Q3 2019

Best reaction

-27.1%

Q3 2018

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+15.3%+13.4%+9.7%
Q4 2025-14.0%-15.5%-38.6%
Q3 2025+6.7%+5.2%+2.3%
Q1 2025+4.8%+8.7%+15.5%
Q4 2024+8.4%+23.2%-5.3%
Q3 2024+7.9%+4.7%+6.6%
Q2 2024-2.4%-0.8%-5.0%
Q1 2024+4.6%+6.6%+4.4%
Q4 2023-9.7%-13.8%-22.9%
Q3 2023+5.4%+2.0%+13.2%
Q2 2023-11.3%-13.1%-16.1%
Q1 2023+8.0%+5.5%+8.3%
Q4 2022-9.5%-12.2%-25.2%
Q3 2022-10.3%-15.6%-5.5%
Q2 2022+14.5%+22.0%+18.7%
Q1 2022-5.5%-5.1%+23.6%
Q4 2021-10.9%+1.3%+0.5%
Q3 2021+2.0%-0.7%-5.8%
Q2 2021-0.6%-5.8%-6.2%
Q1 2021+6.0%+2.9%+26.3%
Q4 2020-7.5%-11.4%+22.2%
Q3 2020+4.2%+2.4%+24.9%
Q2 2020-3.0%-2.3%+12.3%
Q1 2020+31.9%+15.0%+105.4%
Q4 2019-19.1%-22.5%-51.9%
Q3 2019+32.2%+24.5%+17.9%
Q2 2019-22.4%-26.8%-42.5%
Q1 2019-7.7%-12.0%-29.5%
Q4 2018+13.0%+15.2%-4.2%
Q3 2018-27.1%-17.8%-20.8%
Q2 2018+6.4%+8.9%+10.5%
Q1 2018+3.8%+4.0%+9.8%
Q4 2017-2.3%-0.1%-5.8%
Q3 2017+1.9%-2.6%-2.5%
Q2 2017-7.9%-9.9%-13.1%
Q1 2017+7.5%+6.3%-6.6%
Q4 2016-4.1%-3.8%-7.7%
Q3 2016-17.8%-17.3%-4.9%
Q2 2016+5.3%+3.3%+3.3%
Q1 2016+5.8%
Q4 2015+24.9%
Q3 2015+6.6%
Q2 2015-1.4%
Q1 2015-2.1%
Q4 2014-2.3%
Q3 2014+8.7%
Q2 2014-2.2%
Q1 2014+0.1%
Q4 2013+5.2%
Q3 2013-3.3%
Q2 2013+4.4%
Q1 2013+12.2%
Q4 2012+5.0%
Q3 2012-6.2%
Q2 2012+4.5%
Q1 2011-10.0%
Q1 2012-10.0%
Q1 2010-2.0%
Q4 2009-2.0%
Q4 2011-2.0%
Q3 2011-3.5%
Q3 2010-3.5%
Q2 2010+10.2%
Q2 2011+10.2%
Q4 2010+10.2%

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