NYSE$CMI

Cummins Inc (Ex. Cummins Engine Inc) · Q4 2022 earnings

Q4 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported strong fourth quarter and full year results, driven by revenue growth and strategic acquisitions.

Cummins reported a strong fourth quarter with revenues of $7.8 billion and net income of $631 million. The results reflect the inclusion of Meritor and were driven by strong demand across most key regions, although partially offset by slowdowns in China and Russia. The company is also providing a positive outlook for 2023, expecting revenue growth and continued margin expansion.

  • Fourth quarter revenues reached $7.8 billion with a GAAP net income of $631 million.
  • EBITDA for the fourth quarter was 14.2 percent of sales, with diluted EPS at $4.43.
  • Full year revenues hit a record $28.1 billion, with a GAAP net income of $2.2 billion.
  • Full year 2023 revenues are expected to increase by 12 to 17 percent, with EBITDA projected in the range of 14.5 to 15.2 percent.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$7.77B

Previous: $5.85B+32.8%
EPS (adj)

$4.52

Previous: $2.85+58.6%
Capital Expenditures

$463M

Previous: $372M+24.5%
Free Cash Flow

$354M

Previous: $360M-1.7%
Net Income

$631M

Previous: $394M+60.2%
Operating Income

$802M

Previous: $495M+62.0%
Gross Profit

$1.82B

Previous: $1.32B+38.1%
Cash & Equivalents

$2.1B

Previous: $2.59B-18.9%
Total Assets

$30.3B

Previous: $23.7B+27.8%

Revenue & EPS history

Cummins · Revenue · Quarterly

$7.77B

Q4 2022+32.8%vs Q4 2021
Beat estimate in 14 of 15 quarters(93%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Cummins · $9.38B total across 5 segments · Q4 2022

  • Components
    $3.1B+79.6%
  • Engine
    $2.6B+7.2%
  • Distribution
    $2.3B+11.8%
  • Power Systems
    $1.3B+19.7%
  • Accelera
    $75M+120.6%

Forward guidance

Cummins projects full year 2023 revenues to be up 12 to 17 percent, and EBITDA to be in the range of 14.5 and 15.2 percent of sales. The outlook above includes the projected results of the Meritor business for 2023, but excludes any costs or benefits associated with the planned separation of the Filtration business.

Tailwinds

  • Demand will remain strong in most key regions and markets, especially in the first half of the year.
  • Revenue growth and margin expansion in core business.
  • Strong growth in New Power segment.
  • Focus on dividends and reducing debt related to the Meritor acquisition.
  • Commitment to returning 50% of operating cash flow back to shareholders.

Headwinds

  • Monitoring global economic indicators closely.
  • Prepared should economic momentum slow further.
  • Excludes any costs or benefits associated with the planned separation of the Filtration business.
  • Electric powertrain portion of the Meritor business has been integrated within the New Power portfolio with projected EBITDA losses of $55 million.
  • Focus on dividends and reducing debt related to the Meritor acquisition.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2022

Historical avgQ4 2022

+0.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.5%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.5%

Avg return

30 days after

56%

41 / 73 earnings

Positive

+9.3%

Q3 2024

Best reaction

-10.7%

Q4 2025

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-0.0%+3.4%+1.8%
Q4 2025-10.7%-2.9%-11.0%
Q3 2025+5.2%+8.4%+16.3%
Q2 2025+3.2%+7.0%+10.9%
Q1 2025+0.7%+2.3%+7.7%
Q4 2024+4.4%+6.8%-1.0%
Q3 2024+9.3%+9.5%+16.3%
Q2 2024-0.5%+0.2%+7.2%
Q1 2024-1.1%+1.1%-0.8%
Q4 2023+2.9%+4.4%+10.4%
Q3 2023+3.6%+0.7%+3.8%
Q2 2023-9.8%-9.1%-9.8%
Q1 2023-4.3%-3.5%-11.8%
Q4 2022-1.7%-3.6%+0.1%
Q3 2022-1.2%-0.9%+3.5%
Q2 2022-0.0%+1.0%-1.3%
Q1 2022+7.1%+3.5%+8.6%
Q4 2021+0.9%-1.3%-10.8%
Q3 2021-4.0%-3.4%-12.0%
Q2 2021+0.9%+0.0%+3.5%
Q1 2021+2.9%+5.0%+2.9%
Q4 2020-2.5%+4.0%+12.9%
Q3 2020-3.2%-0.4%+4.4%
Q2 2020+4.1%+1.2%+8.8%
Q1 2020+9.1%+4.0%+12.1%
Q4 2019+2.2%-1.3%-8.7%
Q3 2019-3.0%-1.9%+2.7%
Q2 2019-5.7%-8.8%-14.3%
Q1 2019+0.8%+3.1%-3.4%
Q4 2018-0.1%-1.1%+3.2%
Q3 2018+4.0%+8.0%+12.8%
Q2 2018+1.8%+3.2%+3.2%
Q1 2018-8.6%-9.6%-10.9%
Q4 2017-3.5%-8.4%-11.1%
Q3 2017-4.2%-4.0%-7.2%
Q2 2017-6.0%-4.6%-5.1%
Q1 2017+4.8%+2.7%+6.1%
Q4 2016+3.3%+4.3%+4.0%
Q3 2016-4.8%-2.7%+11.6%
Q2 2016+0.4%+2.9%+3.0%
Q1 2016-1.8%
Q4 2015+9.2%
Q3 2015-7.9%
Q2 2015+5.2%
Q1 2015-0.9%
Q4 2014-5.8%
Q3 2014+6.8%
Q2 2014-4.3%
Q1 2014+3.9%
Q4 2013+6.0%
Q3 2013-7.0%
Q2 2013+4.1%
Q1 2013-8.5%
Q4 2012+1.3%
Q3 2012+5.3%
Q2 2012+3.5%
Q1 2012+1.4%
Q4 2011+0.3%
Q3 2011+8.3%
Q2 2011-1.5%
Q1 2011+0.4%
Q4 2010+1.6%
Q3 2010-0.9%
Q2 2010+2.9%
Q1 2009-2.1%
Q1 2010+1.2%
Q4 2007+5.2%
Q4 2009+5.2%
Q3 2008-4.0%
Q3 2009-4.0%
Q2 2009+8.3%
Q2 2008+8.3%
Q4 2008+8.3%

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