NYSE$CMI

Cummins Inc (Ex. Cummins Engine Inc) · Q4 2019 earnings

Q4 2019 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Cummins reported a decrease in revenue due to lower truck production and weaker demand, but delivered record profits and operating cash flow.

Cummins Inc. reported Q4 2019 results with revenues of $5.6 billion, a 9% decrease compared to the same quarter in 2018. Net income was $300 million ($1.97 per diluted share). The results were impacted by lower truck production in North America and weaker demand in global construction, mining, and power generation markets. The company took actions to reduce costs, expecting annual savings of $250 to $300 million.

  • Fourth quarter revenues decreased by 9 percent to $5.6 billion.
  • GAAP Net Income for the fourth quarter was $300 million.
  • Full year revenues were slightly lower at $23.6 billion, but the company delivered record profits.
  • Company expects full year 2020 revenues to be down 8 to 12 percent.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$5.58B

Previous: $6.13B-8.9%
EPS (adj)

$2.56

Previous: $3.48-26.4%
EBITDA Margin

10.1%

No prior period
Effective Tax Rate

17.9%

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

$305M

Previous: $348M-12.4%
Free Cash Flow

$533M

Previous: $642M-17.0%
Net Income

$300M

Previous: $579M-48.2%
Operating Income

$354M

Previous: $731M-51.6%
Gross Profit

$1.31B

Previous: $1.55B-15.1%
Cash & Equivalents

$1.13B

Previous: $1.3B-13.4%
Total Assets

$19.7B

Previous: $19.1B+3.5%
Stock-Based Comp

$12M

Previous: $15M-20.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Cummins · Revenue · Quarterly

$5.58B

Q4 2019-8.9%vs Q4 2018
Beat estimate in 11 of 16 quarters(69%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Cummins · $7.02B total across 5 segments · Q4 2019

  • Engine
    $2.3B-14.8%
  • Distribution
    $2B-2.4%
  • Components
    $1.6B-9.7%
  • Power Systems
    $1.1B-8.3%
  • Accelera
    $18M

Forward guidance

Cummins projects full year 2020 revenues to be down 8 to 12 percent, and EBITDA to be in the range of 14.2 to 15.2 percent of sales.

Tailwinds

  • Company plans to return 75 percent of Operating Cash Flow to shareholders in the form of dividends and share repurchases.

Headwinds

  • Revenue declines in 2020 are driven by lower truck production in North America, Europe, China, and India.
  • Lower projected demand in off-highway markets, including global Power Generation, mining, oil and gas, and construction markets.
  • Midpoint of guidance represents a 25 percent decremental EBITDA margin excluding the impact of the New Power segment.
  • Outlook does not include any potential impact of the company’s review of its emission certification process and compliance with emission standards
  • Outlook does not include additional expenses associated with executing future cost reduction initiatives.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2019

Historical avgQ4 2019

+0.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.5%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.5%

Avg return

30 days after

56%

41 / 73 earnings

Positive

+9.3%

Q3 2024

Best reaction

-10.7%

Q4 2025

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-0.0%+3.4%+1.8%
Q4 2025-10.7%-2.9%-11.0%
Q3 2025+5.2%+8.4%+16.3%
Q2 2025+3.2%+7.0%+10.9%
Q1 2025+0.7%+2.3%+7.7%
Q4 2024+4.4%+6.8%-1.0%
Q3 2024+9.3%+9.5%+16.3%
Q2 2024-0.5%+0.2%+7.2%
Q1 2024-1.1%+1.1%-0.8%
Q4 2023+2.9%+4.4%+10.4%
Q3 2023+3.6%+0.7%+3.8%
Q2 2023-9.8%-9.1%-9.8%
Q1 2023-4.3%-3.5%-11.8%
Q4 2022-1.7%-3.6%+0.1%
Q3 2022-1.2%-0.9%+3.5%
Q2 2022-0.0%+1.0%-1.3%
Q1 2022+7.1%+3.5%+8.6%
Q4 2021+0.9%-1.3%-10.8%
Q3 2021-4.0%-3.4%-12.0%
Q2 2021+0.9%+0.0%+3.5%
Q1 2021+2.9%+5.0%+2.9%
Q4 2020-2.5%+4.0%+12.9%
Q3 2020-3.2%-0.4%+4.4%
Q2 2020+4.1%+1.2%+8.8%
Q1 2020+9.1%+4.0%+12.1%
Q4 2019+2.2%-1.3%-8.7%
Q3 2019-3.0%-1.9%+2.7%
Q2 2019-5.7%-8.8%-14.3%
Q1 2019+0.8%+3.1%-3.4%
Q4 2018-0.1%-1.1%+3.2%
Q3 2018+4.0%+8.0%+12.8%
Q2 2018+1.8%+3.2%+3.2%
Q1 2018-8.6%-9.6%-10.9%
Q4 2017-3.5%-8.4%-11.1%
Q3 2017-4.2%-4.0%-7.2%
Q2 2017-6.0%-4.6%-5.1%
Q1 2017+4.8%+2.7%+6.1%
Q4 2016+3.3%+4.3%+4.0%
Q3 2016-4.8%-2.7%+11.6%
Q2 2016+0.4%+2.9%+3.0%
Q1 2016-1.8%
Q4 2015+9.2%
Q3 2015-7.9%
Q2 2015+5.2%
Q1 2015-0.9%
Q4 2014-5.8%
Q3 2014+6.8%
Q2 2014-4.3%
Q1 2014+3.9%
Q4 2013+6.0%
Q3 2013-7.0%
Q2 2013+4.1%
Q1 2013-8.5%
Q4 2012+1.3%
Q3 2012+5.3%
Q2 2012+3.5%
Q1 2012+1.4%
Q4 2011+0.3%
Q3 2011+8.3%
Q2 2011-1.5%
Q1 2011+0.4%
Q4 2010+1.6%
Q3 2010-0.9%
Q2 2010+2.9%
Q1 2009-2.1%
Q1 2010+1.2%
Q4 2007+5.2%
Q4 2009+5.2%
Q3 2008-4.0%
Q3 2009-4.0%
Q2 2009+8.3%
Q2 2008+8.3%
Q4 2008+8.3%

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