NYSE$CMI

Cummins Inc (Ex. Cummins Engine Inc) · Q4 2020 earnings

Q4 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Cummins reported increased revenues and net income for Q4 2020.

Cummins Inc. reported a 5% increase in fourth-quarter revenues to $5.8 billion and a GAAP net income of $501 million. Full year revenues were $19.8 billion with a GAAP net income of $1.8 billion. The company projects full year 2021 revenues to be up 8 to 12 percent.

  • Fourth quarter revenues increased by 5% to $5.8 billion.
  • GAAP Net Income for the fourth quarter was $501 million.
  • Full year revenues were $19.8 billion.
  • The company expects full year 2021 revenues to be up 8 to 12 percent.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$5.83B

Previous: $5.58B+4.5%
EPS (adj)

$3.36

Previous: $2.56+31.2%
EBITDA Margin

14.4%

Previous: 10.1%+42.6%
Capital Expenditures

$260M

Previous: $305M-14.8%
Free Cash Flow

$882M

Previous: $533M+65.5%
Net Income

$501M

Previous: $300M+67.0%
Operating Income

$629M

Previous: $354M+77.7%
Gross Profit

$1.36B

Previous: $1.31B+3.7%
Cash & Equivalents

$3.4B

Previous: $1.13B+201.2%
Total Assets

$22.6B

Previous: $19.7B+14.6%
Stock-Based Comp

$9M

Previous: $12M-25.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Cummins · Revenue · Quarterly

$5.83B

Q4 2020+4.5%vs Q4 2019
Beat estimate in 11 of 16 quarters(69%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Cummins · $7.12B total across 5 segments · Q4 2020

  • Engine
    $2.3B+0.0%
  • Distribution
    $2B+0.0%
  • Components
    $1.8B+12.5%
  • Power Systems
    $989M-10.1%
  • Accelera
    $34M+88.9%

Forward guidance

Cummins projects full year 2021 revenues to be up 8 to 12 percent, and EBITDA to be in the range of 15.0 and 15.5 percent of sales.

Tailwinds

  • Expect revenues to increase in all regions
  • Expect revenues to increase in all major markets except China
  • Indicators point to improving demand in a number of key regions
  • Indicators point to improving demand in a number of key markets in 2021
  • Cummins is in a strong position to keep investing in future growth while continuing to return cash to shareholders

Headwinds

  • Significant uncertainty remains
  • Continued strong focus on managing costs
  • Continued strong focus on managing cash flow
  • Still operating under a pandemic with extreme safety measures in place
  • Global supply chains are facing challenges as the industry responds to rising demand across multiple end markets

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2020

Historical avgQ4 2020

+0.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.5%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.5%

Avg return

30 days after

56%

41 / 73 earnings

Positive

+9.3%

Q3 2024

Best reaction

-10.7%

Q4 2025

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-0.0%+3.4%+1.8%
Q4 2025-10.7%-2.9%-11.0%
Q3 2025+5.2%+8.4%+16.3%
Q2 2025+3.2%+7.0%+10.9%
Q1 2025+0.7%+2.3%+7.7%
Q4 2024+4.4%+6.8%-1.0%
Q3 2024+9.3%+9.5%+16.3%
Q2 2024-0.5%+0.2%+7.2%
Q1 2024-1.1%+1.1%-0.8%
Q4 2023+2.9%+4.4%+10.4%
Q3 2023+3.6%+0.7%+3.8%
Q2 2023-9.8%-9.1%-9.8%
Q1 2023-4.3%-3.5%-11.8%
Q4 2022-1.7%-3.6%+0.1%
Q3 2022-1.2%-0.9%+3.5%
Q2 2022-0.0%+1.0%-1.3%
Q1 2022+7.1%+3.5%+8.6%
Q4 2021+0.9%-1.3%-10.8%
Q3 2021-4.0%-3.4%-12.0%
Q2 2021+0.9%+0.0%+3.5%
Q1 2021+2.9%+5.0%+2.9%
Q4 2020-2.5%+4.0%+12.9%
Q3 2020-3.2%-0.4%+4.4%
Q2 2020+4.1%+1.2%+8.8%
Q1 2020+9.1%+4.0%+12.1%
Q4 2019+2.2%-1.3%-8.7%
Q3 2019-3.0%-1.9%+2.7%
Q2 2019-5.7%-8.8%-14.3%
Q1 2019+0.8%+3.1%-3.4%
Q4 2018-0.1%-1.1%+3.2%
Q3 2018+4.0%+8.0%+12.8%
Q2 2018+1.8%+3.2%+3.2%
Q1 2018-8.6%-9.6%-10.9%
Q4 2017-3.5%-8.4%-11.1%
Q3 2017-4.2%-4.0%-7.2%
Q2 2017-6.0%-4.6%-5.1%
Q1 2017+4.8%+2.7%+6.1%
Q4 2016+3.3%+4.3%+4.0%
Q3 2016-4.8%-2.7%+11.6%
Q2 2016+0.4%+2.9%+3.0%
Q1 2016-1.8%
Q4 2015+9.2%
Q3 2015-7.9%
Q2 2015+5.2%
Q1 2015-0.9%
Q4 2014-5.8%
Q3 2014+6.8%
Q2 2014-4.3%
Q1 2014+3.9%
Q4 2013+6.0%
Q3 2013-7.0%
Q2 2013+4.1%
Q1 2013-8.5%
Q4 2012+1.3%
Q3 2012+5.3%
Q2 2012+3.5%
Q1 2012+1.4%
Q4 2011+0.3%
Q3 2011+8.3%
Q2 2011-1.5%
Q1 2011+0.4%
Q4 2010+1.6%
Q3 2010-0.9%
Q2 2010+2.9%
Q1 2009-2.1%
Q1 2010+1.2%
Q4 2007+5.2%
Q4 2009+5.2%
Q3 2008-4.0%
Q3 2009-4.0%
Q2 2009+8.3%
Q2 2008+8.3%
Q4 2008+8.3%

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