NYSE$AVB

AvalonBay Communities Inc · Q4 2023 earnings

Q4 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

AvalonBay's operating results for Q4 2023 were announced, featuring a 3.0% dividend increase and the initial 2024 financial outlook was provided.

AvalonBay Communities, Inc. reported its Q4 2023 results, with EPS at $1.70, FFO per share at $2.63, and Core FFO per share at $2.74. The company also announced a 3.0% increase in its quarterly dividend.

  • EPS for Q4 2023 was reported at $1.70, a slight decrease from $1.72 in Q4 2022.
  • FFO per share for Q4 2023 increased to $2.63, compared to $2.57 in the same period last year.
  • Core FFO per share for Q4 2023 rose to $2.74, up from $2.59 in Q4 2022.
  • The company completed the development of Avalon Princeton Circle, and started construction of Avalon Wayne and Avalon Parsippany.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$705M

Previous: $670M+5.2%
EPS (adj)

$2.74

Previous: $2.59+5.8%
Economic Occupancy

95.7%

No prior period
Net Income

$242M

Previous: $241M+0.4%
Operating Income

$485M

Previous: $213M+128.2%
Gross Profit

$244M

Previous: $441M-44.7%
Stock-Based Comp

$5.29M

Previous: $7.09M-25.3%

Revenue & EPS history

AvalonBay · Revenue · Quarterly

$705M

Q4 2023+5.2%vs Q4 2022
Beat estimate in 10 of 15 quarters(67%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

AvalonBay · $497M total across 1 segment · Q1 2021

  • Same Store Residential
    $497M

Forward guidance

AvalonBay provided its financial outlook for Q1 and the full year 2024, including projected EPS, FFO per share, and Core FFO per share.

Tailwinds

  • Projected EPS for full year 2024 is expected to be between $6.27 and $6.77.
  • Projected FFO per share for full year 2024 is forecasted to be between $10.42 and $10.92.
  • Projected Core FFO per share for full year 2024 is anticipated to be between $10.53 and $11.03.
  • Same Store Residential revenue change is expected to be between 1.6% and 3.6%.
  • Residential NOI change is expected to be between 0.0% and 2.5%.

Headwinds

  • Projected EPS for Q1 2024 is expected to be between $1.06 and $1.16.
  • Projected FFO per share for Q1 2024 is forecasted to be between $2.54 and $2.64.
  • Projected Core FFO per share for Q1 2024 is anticipated to be between $2.56 and $2.66.
  • Residential Opex change is expected to be between 4.5% and 6.7%.
  • Capital markets and transaction activity is expected to decrease EPS, FFO and Core FFO per share by $0.29 for FY 2024.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2023

Historical avgQ4 2023

-0.1%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.2%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.4%

Avg return

30 days after

46%

33 / 72 earnings

Positive

+7.4%

Q2 2022

Best reaction

-6.7%

Q1 2010

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+0.0%-0.6%-0.4%
Q4 2025-4.6%-0.2%+0.0%
Q3 2025-0.9%-0.1%+3.2%
Q1 2025-0.5%-1.0%-1.5%
Q4 2024-1.1%-2.4%-2.6%
Q3 2024+4.7%+8.1%+5.3%
Q2 2024+3.3%-1.0%+9.5%
Q1 2024+0.1%-0.9%+2.1%
Q4 2023-0.2%-4.7%-0.2%
Q3 2023-0.9%-3.9%+2.4%
Q2 2023+0.9%-0.7%-0.5%
Q1 2023+3.5%+5.9%+0.1%
Q4 2022+0.4%+0.8%-7.9%
Q3 2022-2.3%-5.9%+0.8%
Q2 2022+7.4%+5.2%+6.0%
Q1 2022-2.0%-9.5%-13.7%
Q4 2021+2.3%-0.0%+1.2%
Q3 2021+2.0%+0.3%+2.1%
Q2 2021+0.7%+0.2%-1.2%
Q1 2021-1.9%-1.9%+6.0%
Q4 2020+3.3%+4.1%+6.7%
Q3 2020-2.7%+3.9%+20.0%
Q2 2020+0.6%-0.2%+6.2%
Q1 2020+0.7%-1.3%+8.4%
Q4 2019+0.2%+1.4%-4.4%
Q3 2019-1.9%-1.0%-1.8%
Q2 2019-3.7%-4.9%+0.8%
Q1 2019+1.9%+0.9%+4.6%
Q4 2018+2.3%+2.3%+2.8%
Q3 2018+2.1%-1.0%+8.0%
Q2 2018+2.7%+4.6%+7.0%
Q1 2018-0.2%+0.7%-0.1%
Q4 2017-1.7%-4.7%-7.8%
Q3 2017-0.2%+0.2%+0.2%
Q2 2017-2.2%-1.9%-2.1%
Q1 2017-0.6%+0.9%+1.1%
Q4 2016+1.3%+0.9%+4.5%
Q3 2016-0.6%-0.3%-4.5%
Q2 2016-1.6%+0.2%-5.8%
Q1 2016-1.2%
Q4 2015+1.6%
Q3 2015-2.2%
Q2 2015+0.4%
Q1 2015-0.0%
Q4 2014-2.5%
Q3 2014+0.2%
Q2 2014+1.9%
Q1 2014-0.5%
Q4 2013+3.9%
Q3 2013-4.3%
Q2 2013+0.6%
Q1 2013+0.9%
Q4 2012-5.9%
Q3 2012-0.1%
Q2 2012-0.8%
Q1 2012+0.8%
Q4 2011-1.5%
Q3 2011+0.7%
Q2 2011-3.6%
Q1 2011-0.9%
Q4 2010-0.4%
Q3 2010+2.9%
Q2 2010+1.4%
Q1 2009-6.7%
Q1 2010-6.7%
Q4 2007-0.2%
Q4 2009-0.2%
Q3 2008+5.3%
Q3 2009+5.3%
Q4 2008+5.3%
Q2 2008-5.1%
Q2 2009-5.1%

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