NYSE$AVB

AvalonBay Communities Inc · Q3 2021 earnings

Q3 2021 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Net income decreased due to a decrease in gain on sale of real estate. FFO per share decreased, while Core FFO per share remained unchanged compared to the prior year period.

AvalonBay Communities, Inc. reported a decrease in net income and FFO per share for the third quarter of 2021, while Core FFO per share remained unchanged. Same Store total revenue increased by 1.2%.

  • Net Income Attributable to Common Stockholders for the three months ended September 30, 2021 was $78,914,000.
  • Earnings per Share – diluted (“EPS”) for the three months ended September 30, 2021 decreased 46.7% to $0.56 from $1.05 for the prior year period.
  • Funds from Operations attributable to common stockholders - diluted (“FFO”) per share for the three months ended September 30, 2021 decreased 3.4% to $1.96 from $2.03 for the prior year period.
  • Core FFO per share for the three months ended September 30, 2021 remained unchanged from the prior year period at $2.06.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$581M

Previous: $567M+2.4%
EPS (adj)

$2.06

Previous: $2.06+0.0%
Total Apartment Homes

87.4K

Previous: 86.7K+0.9%
Total Communities

293

Previous: 294-0.3%
Capital Expenditures

-$975M

Previous: -$639M-52.5%
Free Cash Flow

-$896M

Previous: -$491M-82.3%
Net Income

$78.8M

Previous: $148M-46.6%
Operating Income

$383M

Previous: $378M+1.3%
Gross Profit

$432M

Previous: $423M+2.0%
Cash & Equivalents

$322M

Previous: $87.5M+268.2%
Total Assets

$19.5B

Previous: $19.1B+1.7%
Stock-Based Comp

$7.48M

Previous: $5.88M+27.1%

Revenue & EPS history

AvalonBay · Revenue · Quarterly

$581M

Q3 2021+2.4%vs Q3 2020
Beat estimate in 15 of 16 quarters(94%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

AvalonBay · $497M total across 1 segment · Q1 2021

  • Same Store Residential
    $497M

Forward guidance

The Company expects the following for its fourth quarter and full year 2021 financial outlook.

Tailwinds

  • Projected EPS for Q4 2021 is expected to be between $2.25 and $2.35.
  • Projected FFO per share for Q4 2021 is expected to be between $2.17 and $2.27.
  • Projected Core FFO per share for Q4 2021 is expected to be between $2.19 and $2.29.
  • Same Store Residential rental revenue change for Q4 2021 is expected to be between 4.5% and 5.5%.
  • Same Store Residential NOI change for Q4 2021 is expected to be between 5.5% and 7.5%.

Headwinds

  • Projected EPS for the full year 2021 is expected to be between $7.04 and $7.14.
  • Projected FFO per share for the full year 2021 is expected to be between $8.03 and $8.13.
  • Projected Core FFO per share for the full year 2021 is expected to be between $8.18 and $8.28.
  • Same Store Residential rental revenue change for the full year 2021 is expected to be between (2.3)% and (1.9)%.
  • Same Store Residential NOI change for the full year 2021 is expected to be between (5.1)% and (4.3)%.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2021

Historical avgQ3 2021

-0.1%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.2%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.4%

Avg return

30 days after

46%

33 / 72 earnings

Positive

+7.4%

Q2 2022

Best reaction

-6.7%

Q1 2010

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+0.0%-0.6%-0.4%
Q4 2025-4.6%-0.2%+0.0%
Q3 2025-0.9%-0.1%+3.2%
Q1 2025-0.5%-1.0%-1.5%
Q4 2024-1.1%-2.4%-2.6%
Q3 2024+4.7%+8.1%+5.3%
Q2 2024+3.3%-1.0%+9.5%
Q1 2024+0.1%-0.9%+2.1%
Q4 2023-0.2%-4.7%-0.2%
Q3 2023-0.9%-3.9%+2.4%
Q2 2023+0.9%-0.7%-0.5%
Q1 2023+3.5%+5.9%+0.1%
Q4 2022+0.4%+0.8%-7.9%
Q3 2022-2.3%-5.9%+0.8%
Q2 2022+7.4%+5.2%+6.0%
Q1 2022-2.0%-9.5%-13.7%
Q4 2021+2.3%-0.0%+1.2%
Q3 2021+2.0%+0.3%+2.1%
Q2 2021+0.7%+0.2%-1.2%
Q1 2021-1.9%-1.9%+6.0%
Q4 2020+3.3%+4.1%+6.7%
Q3 2020-2.7%+3.9%+20.0%
Q2 2020+0.6%-0.2%+6.2%
Q1 2020+0.7%-1.3%+8.4%
Q4 2019+0.2%+1.4%-4.4%
Q3 2019-1.9%-1.0%-1.8%
Q2 2019-3.7%-4.9%+0.8%
Q1 2019+1.9%+0.9%+4.6%
Q4 2018+2.3%+2.3%+2.8%
Q3 2018+2.1%-1.0%+8.0%
Q2 2018+2.7%+4.6%+7.0%
Q1 2018-0.2%+0.7%-0.1%
Q4 2017-1.7%-4.7%-7.8%
Q3 2017-0.2%+0.2%+0.2%
Q2 2017-2.2%-1.9%-2.1%
Q1 2017-0.6%+0.9%+1.1%
Q4 2016+1.3%+0.9%+4.5%
Q3 2016-0.6%-0.3%-4.5%
Q2 2016-1.6%+0.2%-5.8%
Q1 2016-1.2%
Q4 2015+1.6%
Q3 2015-2.2%
Q2 2015+0.4%
Q1 2015-0.0%
Q4 2014-2.5%
Q3 2014+0.2%
Q2 2014+1.9%
Q1 2014-0.5%
Q4 2013+3.9%
Q3 2013-4.3%
Q2 2013+0.6%
Q1 2013+0.9%
Q4 2012-5.9%
Q3 2012-0.1%
Q2 2012-0.8%
Q1 2012+0.8%
Q4 2011-1.5%
Q3 2011+0.7%
Q2 2011-3.6%
Q1 2011-0.9%
Q4 2010-0.4%
Q3 2010+2.9%
Q2 2010+1.4%
Q1 2009-6.7%
Q1 2010-6.7%
Q4 2007-0.2%
Q4 2009-0.2%
Q3 2008+5.3%
Q3 2009+5.3%
Q4 2008+5.3%
Q2 2008-5.1%
Q2 2009-5.1%

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