NYSE$AJG

Arthur J.Gallagher & Co · Q2 2020 earnings

Q2 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Arthur J. Gallagher reported excellent second-quarter financial results despite the economic downturn caused by COVID-19.

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. reported its financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2020. The company's combined brokerage and risk management revenues grew organically and through M&A, and expense control actions delivered growth in EBITDAC and net earnings.

  • New business generation remained at pre-pandemic levels.
  • Retention and non-recurring business were lower than pre-pandemic levels.
  • Renewal customer exposure units showed some decline, but premium rates increased.
  • Expense control efforts can offset a lull in organic growth.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.58B

Previous: $1.66B-4.5%
EPS (adj)

$0.94

Previous: $0.65+44.6%
Organic Revenue Growth

2.1%

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$58.8M

Previous: -$75.3M+21.9%
Free Cash Flow

$94.9M

Previous: $34.8M+172.7%
Net Income

$154M

Previous: $110M+39.6%
Operating Income

-$376M

Previous: -$550M+31.6%
Gross Profit

$1.42B

Previous: $1.37B+4.2%
Cash & Equivalents

$350M

Previous: $512M-31.7%
Total Assets

$21.3B

Previous: $19.2B+11.0%
Stock-Based Comp

$3.4M

Previous: $3.5M-2.9%

Revenue & EPS history

Arthur J. Gallagher · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.58B

Q2 2020-4.5%vs Q2 2019
Beat estimate in 14 of 16 quarters(88%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Arthur J. Gallagher · $1.39B total across 2 segments · Q2 2020

  • Brokerage
    $1.2B
  • Risk Management
    $191M

Forward guidance

Looking forward, the company feels highly confident their expense control efforts can offset a lull in organic growth and they see their M&A program returning to more historical levels by the end of the year.

Tailwinds

  • Expense control efforts can offset a lull in organic growth
  • M&A program returning to more historical levels by the end of the year
  • Property/casualty premium rates move higher overall which may partially, or fully, offset future declines in exposure units, if any.
  • Estimated savings of approximately $74 million pretax compared to second quarter 2019
  • approximately $1.3 billion of available liquidity.

Headwinds

  • Decline in covered lives could persist over the next few quarters, and deteriorate further, if the economy is slow to recover.
  • A slower recovery in the number of workers employed could cause fewer claims arising in future quarters.
  • expect a reduced level of production for the remainder of 2020.
  • Future net savings may be lower if the economy recovers faster than our forecasts or our costs to implement changes exceed our estimates.
  • A prolonged economic downturn may cause a deterioration of future cash collections

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q2 2020

Historical avgQ2 2020

+0.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.1%

Avg return

5 days after

+3.1%

Avg return

30 days after

53%

36 / 68 earnings

Positive

+8.2%

Q4 2017

Best reaction

-4.6%

Q1 2014

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-1.7%-4.6%-2.6%
Q4 2025-3.3%+1.5%-7.2%
Q3 2025-0.7%-6.7%-11.6%
Q2 2025+0.0%+2.0%+6.5%
Q1 2025+4.1%+6.9%+9.4%
Q3 2024-2.1%-1.3%+5.3%
Q2 2024+3.4%+3.9%+4.9%
Q1 2024-1.1%-0.9%+6.4%
Q4 2023-2.5%-3.6%+2.5%
Q3 2023-1.2%+1.9%+9.4%
Q2 2023-1.6%-0.2%+3.6%
Q1 2023+1.3%+2.3%-0.8%
Q4 2022-1.7%-0.7%-6.3%
Q3 2022+7.2%+6.5%+13.3%
Q2 2022+3.3%-0.6%+8.3%
Q1 2022-3.9%-5.6%-5.6%
Q4 2021+0.9%+2.4%+4.0%
Q3 2021+3.4%+0.5%+0.6%
Q2 2021+1.3%+0.8%+4.5%
Q1 2021+3.5%+3.9%+4.7%
Q4 2020+2.0%+4.0%+5.9%
Q3 2020-0.6%+3.5%+11.1%
Q2 2020+2.6%+0.6%+0.2%
Q1 2020-2.7%+4.3%+18.3%
Q4 2019+3.8%+6.0%-1.3%
Q3 2019-0.8%-0.2%+1.8%
Q2 2019-0.0%-0.6%-4.7%
Q1 2019+1.3%+1.9%+2.7%
Q4 2018+5.5%+7.6%+10.2%
Q3 2018+3.8%+4.1%+7.5%
Q2 2018-0.4%+0.3%+1.4%
Q1 2018-1.9%-1.5%-5.3%
Q4 2017+8.2%+6.5%+5.9%
Q3 2017+0.0%+1.3%+4.6%
Q2 2017+1.3%+0.9%-0.5%
Q1 2017-1.0%-2.3%+1.4%
Q4 2016+1.5%+0.1%+5.7%
Q3 2016-0.4%-1.8%+6.9%
Q2 2016-0.6%-1.1%-1.0%
Q1 2016+2.0%
Q4 2015+1.9%
Q3 2015+0.8%
Q2 2015+1.2%
Q1 2015+1.6%
Q4 2014+2.6%
Q3 2014+3.1%
Q2 2014+0.1%
Q1 2014-4.6%
Q4 2013+1.2%
Q3 2013+0.2%
Q2 2013+1.7%
Q1 2013+0.3%
Q4 2011-0.3%
Q1 2010-0.3%
Q4 2012+1.8%
Q3 2012-0.6%
Q2 2012-0.2%
Q1 2012-0.6%
Q4 2010-1.6%
Q3 2011-3.2%
Q2 2011-3.0%
Q1 2011+1.0%
Q4 2008+0.6%
Q3 2010-0.5%
Q3 2009-0.5%
Q4 2009+1.2%
Q2 2009+1.2%
Q2 2010+1.2%

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